Gold has been trading a bullish pattern (falling wedge) for the past two years. Even more bullish it has moved above it's 200 DMA! This signals a long term trend change in any asset class. Despite the lower high's price action it's momentum on the downside has been slowing. This is a classical chart pattern and many bulls took advantage of this move (including your's truly). In addition to global growth uncertainties, trade wars and other geo-political tensions investors have been quietly flocking to the safe haven. The falling wedge pattern target has a pattern target to $1800/ounce, which would be exactly a 100% extension from the lows. Now ironically even though BTC has not been trading inside a bullish pattern all of 2018, very recent price action is looking great. Everyone has been discussing the inverse head and shoulders pattern highlighted. It also has a pattern target that nearly hits the 100% extension to around 5.7k-5.9k depending on your pricing source.
The question for BTC has capitulation hit?
What many bears and bulls don't understand is that capitulation isn't marked by a price. It's measured mostly by psychology. The market doesn't say ok now we hit $1000 or $1200 or $50 now we give the bulls permission to change the trend. No. Capitulation is as hard as calling the top of a bull run. I think we can all mostly agree we are nearing the bottom than ever before. Like anything else it's always hindsight 20/20. Bull's always think there is another pump before a climaxing and bears always think there's another dump before getting off the toilet. Both are wrong.
When you gauge the current market sentiment it's horrible. It's bullish and sunny if you're inside cryptoland, but if you are not invested in this space or trading...you are not paying attention. The news isn't blasting bitcoin on CNBC every 5 minutes anymore. I don't hear random people talking about it at the bar or coffee shops. It's radio silent. The mainstream don't give a $uck. That drop from 6k to 3k was the final dagger. The market fell 46% in a matter of days which equals to the 2014 crash. If you look at my recent publication titled BTC to 120K these market movements are very similar. Bears are saying look, no volumes = no bull run. That's not really the case. When a market capitulates and also when you're trading an inverse H&S a smart analyst expects these to be low volume events. First after capitulation bears are exhausted and bulls are not confident. This creates a low volume event. Also the right should of an inverse H&S volumes are usually lower than the left shoulder because there's still uncertainty on both sides. It's not until you break the neckline will you see volumes spike. So a break above $4,250 you'll see some huge volumes again + volatility. So I don't buy the bears betting on the low volume gig. This is normal and doesn't mean the trend can't change.
You can't ignore the risks either. I've stated this several times before, but a break below 3.5k is bearish. A break below 3k I'm going full bear mode. The 200 Week MA is right there and we break through that...it's going to be a blood bath for bulls.
On the flip side BTC breaks above 200 DMA which is currently sitting at 5.9k that is a huge trend reversal sign (See my other publication on BTC to 120K). I explain more detail there. I'd like for my Gold/BTC portfolio to have two assets trading above their 200 DMA's! If you look at FANG stocks...ugh. Not the case.
The issue I have with many of the publications on TV is how quick people are to change their minds on market conditions based on an hourly chart! Look. If you're TA is on point and you've taken into consideration the longer developing trends.... you should be fairly consistent on your approach and calls. But it's like if BTC doesn't behave exactly as it should in a given 15 minute pattern than it's like the world has ended for some folks. I don't get it. Its confusing and annoying.
Here's it straight up. No one is a fortune teller. Anyone who says bitcoin is going to 1,000 dollars with no analysis or anyone saying bitcoin is going back above 10k with no analysis are both full of it. It's all about trading probabilities and risk management technique. No body really knows where things will end up at the end of 2019. But the patterns are telling me BTC has major upside. Fundamentals are strong. We are in the bottoming phase. We will know in the next couple of weeks who is right. But maybe, just maybe someday, Gold will be able to lead us to higher highs. These two assets will be linked as the technology and trust develops. That I can promise you.
Bobby
-Don't hate the hair, hate the game
The question for BTC has capitulation hit?
What many bears and bulls don't understand is that capitulation isn't marked by a price. It's measured mostly by psychology. The market doesn't say ok now we hit $1000 or $1200 or $50 now we give the bulls permission to change the trend. No. Capitulation is as hard as calling the top of a bull run. I think we can all mostly agree we are nearing the bottom than ever before. Like anything else it's always hindsight 20/20. Bull's always think there is another pump before a climaxing and bears always think there's another dump before getting off the toilet. Both are wrong.
When you gauge the current market sentiment it's horrible. It's bullish and sunny if you're inside cryptoland, but if you are not invested in this space or trading...you are not paying attention. The news isn't blasting bitcoin on CNBC every 5 minutes anymore. I don't hear random people talking about it at the bar or coffee shops. It's radio silent. The mainstream don't give a $uck. That drop from 6k to 3k was the final dagger. The market fell 46% in a matter of days which equals to the 2014 crash. If you look at my recent publication titled BTC to 120K these market movements are very similar. Bears are saying look, no volumes = no bull run. That's not really the case. When a market capitulates and also when you're trading an inverse H&S a smart analyst expects these to be low volume events. First after capitulation bears are exhausted and bulls are not confident. This creates a low volume event. Also the right should of an inverse H&S volumes are usually lower than the left shoulder because there's still uncertainty on both sides. It's not until you break the neckline will you see volumes spike. So a break above $4,250 you'll see some huge volumes again + volatility. So I don't buy the bears betting on the low volume gig. This is normal and doesn't mean the trend can't change.
You can't ignore the risks either. I've stated this several times before, but a break below 3.5k is bearish. A break below 3k I'm going full bear mode. The 200 Week MA is right there and we break through that...it's going to be a blood bath for bulls.
On the flip side BTC breaks above 200 DMA which is currently sitting at 5.9k that is a huge trend reversal sign (See my other publication on BTC to 120K). I explain more detail there. I'd like for my Gold/BTC portfolio to have two assets trading above their 200 DMA's! If you look at FANG stocks...ugh. Not the case.
The issue I have with many of the publications on TV is how quick people are to change their minds on market conditions based on an hourly chart! Look. If you're TA is on point and you've taken into consideration the longer developing trends.... you should be fairly consistent on your approach and calls. But it's like if BTC doesn't behave exactly as it should in a given 15 minute pattern than it's like the world has ended for some folks. I don't get it. Its confusing and annoying.
Here's it straight up. No one is a fortune teller. Anyone who says bitcoin is going to 1,000 dollars with no analysis or anyone saying bitcoin is going back above 10k with no analysis are both full of it. It's all about trading probabilities and risk management technique. No body really knows where things will end up at the end of 2019. But the patterns are telling me BTC has major upside. Fundamentals are strong. We are in the bottoming phase. We will know in the next couple of weeks who is right. But maybe, just maybe someday, Gold will be able to lead us to higher highs. These two assets will be linked as the technology and trust develops. That I can promise you.
Bobby
-Don't hate the hair, hate the game
Trade active:
sometimes when you publish an idea you don't really know how the charts will layout. hate how messy it looks. here's a cleaner copy hopefully on the BTC portion. You can see where the target level is for the inverse H&S.
