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Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin

Short
INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin

From K1 to K3, it is a short term downtrend.
K3 just break down.
It seems that the downtrend had not ended yet.
K3 close to the 0.5fib line of the nearest uptrend.
The nearest uptrend most likely had been terminated.
If we short it here(26200-26600),stop loss set at 26900.
Or We can wait for more evidence to find another good place to short it.
Comment:
After K1 break up the downtrend line,K4 is the first test of the line.
K4 stand upon the 0.5fib line of the nearest uptrend.
That’s good signals for bull force.
If the short term uptrend want to recover, K5 should close upon K3.
If K5 price down to test the downtrend line for a second time with low volume.
the short term uptrend will also recover.
If that is the fact, short position should stop loss.

Supply and demand pressure are temporarily in balance.
Price up to test the resistance is also likely happen in the coming days.
If that is the fact, I will continue to short it there.
Comment:
K5 verified that supply and demand pressure are temporarily in balance here.
Possibility of pricing up to test the resistance increased.
If that happens I will continue to short it there.
If K6 price down to test downtrend line under low volume for a second time.
Short position should stop loss here.
Comment:

K6 is a bullish inverted hammer candle with increased volume.
Which verified an uptrend had began.
Nearest short term downtrend(from K1 to K4) most likely had been terminated here.
Possibility of pricing up to test the upper price of K1(at about 27500) increased.

If we had short positions, we should stop losing here, and waiting for other chances to buy or sell.
Comment:

From K2 to K3, it is a short term uptrend, it is breaking up a potential head-shoulder pattern’s diagonal neckline.
When the candle close upon the upper price of K0 in the coming days,
The head-shoulder pattern will finally born.
I don’t think this will finally come true.
But I will prepare for this possible situation.

So, there are at least two possible places to buy in.
If the following candles retest the support with low volume, I will try to buy in.
If the following candles break up K0 and retest it, I will try to buy in.

I am also try to short it at 27500-28200 , I don’t think this short term uptrend will expand to a large scale bull market.
Comment:

After K3 break up K2 with increased volume, a short term uptrend had been established.
K4 is the first test of the support line, the volume is relatively high,
It is not a perfect retest, even though the candle close upon K2.
K5 is most likely a second test of the support line and then the uptrend go on to test upper price of K0.
Comment:

K5 is a second test of the support line, the candle close upon the support line and the volume of supply pressure dropped to the lowest level.
It is a successful test and the price in the coming days is most likely break up to test the resistance of K0.

K4 and K5 is an up contract triangle pattern, it is also likely to break up.
I am still waiting to short it at 27500-28200 area.
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