xuanhaimmoer

BITCOIN - UPTREND OR DOWNTREND in 2018 and 2019 ??? ANALYSIS

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
HI EVERYONE, WELCOME BACK WITH XUANHAIMMOER and I AM STAY HERE FOR YOU SO READ ALL THIS!

Today, I make this EDUCATION analysis after over 1 week I research and collect datas in market. THE PURPOSE is getting for all you guys A REPORT about THE TIME WE FIGHTING WITH MARKET AND LOGICAL ANALYSIS ABOUT BITCOIN WITH PREDICTION FOR 2018 and 2019.

Do you feel excited? Let going! But remember ZOOM THE CHART FOR SEE ALL I WRITE IN ABOVE and you can get full my viewpoint!

I want to starting with the time we boom in November 2017 and we are in “ CRAZY GAME “ of BIG BOY with SHARKs ( as we call ). We dont know what they are thinking and where they want to take us to? Did you buy in TOP and sell in BOTTOM very very low? Yes? So you are in the “GAME” of them.

The path of price represents the general psychology of the market and the price model is the way that BIG BOY make us to sell everything cheap. Do you think why we have price pattern? What it mean? It simply built from a time of psychology in market and a “GAME”. There are many same patterns that we see inthe past with so many different financial markets and the same game, but we lost money all the time.

At this market, Bitcoin is in DESCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERN - BILATERAL PATTERN - which pattern can break up or down and we need have solution for each of this.

In this post, I will analysis very detail about 6 PERIOD and COMPARE all ELEMENTs to EVALUATE that Bitcoin will go up or down in 2018 - 2019

Each PERIODs I draw vertical line for separate them with chart of price + RSI screen + ADX screen

In general I draw 11 important points in above and ZOOM for see clearly with many Lower Highs and Lower Lows in the chart.

The easy thing we see is market are totally downtrend with many LHs (Lower Highs) and LLs (Lower Lows) as Dow theory.

If uptrend for middle and long term occur, I think we need 1 more bottom higher current bottom and 1 more top higher last top. Detail, if Bitcoin pump over 74xx we will see middle term uptrend and pump over 84xx for long term uptrend. Sure about that!

In the chart I using enough indicators for analysis not more not less:

+ Leading indicator - Momentum oscillator: RSI
+ Lagging indicator - Trend following indicator: Directional Movement ( ADX DI+ and DI-)
+ Volatility indicator: Bollinger Band
+ Volume indicator: Volume

Resistances and buy zone: Using Fibonacci

All in above enough for we to analysis each PERIOD.

We have amazing number that I discover is each time Bitcoin drop strong and bounce back we all see 0.5 - 0.618 bounce which caculated by Fibonacci Retracement .

So now we will come to each PERIOD. I will tell you and explain why we drop and why we go up in each point with analysis.

*** PERIOD ANALYSIS

PERIOD 1:

This time in last year 2017, when media and all BIG BOY give many good news for market, all people know about Cryptocurrency and we see the Peak in nearly 20000$ (point 1). The volume of this time is very high but less when price come to 18000 - 20000$ zone.

How can we realize that we will drop? Look at RSI in this time, we have divergence. More, we look at combination of 2 candles I emphasize in above in peak. It is Bearish Engulfing >>> downtrend

PERIOD 2:

In point 2, we have double bottoms in this time with RSI divergence >>> uptrend

In point 3, we start dropping so which signal show that? We also have the price touch upper band of Bollinger Band so we need down correction to come average line. The combination of 2 candles is Bearish Engulfing . Consider about Directional Movement we all see DI - cross up DI+ and DI+ go down with ADX go down, it mean the uptrend are weak and we will see signal for downtrend for next.

After that is the time from 16 Jan to 29 Jan is accumulation zone (9000 - 12000$), this is zone when buyer and seller debate and just some people know it is ACCUMULATION ZONE in ECONOMIC CYCLE before big drop ( from 12xxx to 6xxx$ )

PERIOD 3:

Start with the big drop from PERIOD 2, we have very nice bounce from this time. So how can we know before it pump?

In point 4 we see:

Look at RSI , it is oversold >>> 1 signal for uptrend

We have big Bullish Pin bar candle with nearly 900$ of tail >>> it mean we very strong buyer wait in here guys.

After that, the strong uptrend are revealed in Directional Movement with DI- go down and DI+ go up as well as ADX go down mean the weak in downtrend of last time from 12xxx to 6xxx >>> we will see reversal in next future.

In point 5, we have double tops pattern with RSI divergence, ADX cross up over 20 and DI - cross up over DI+ >>> strong downtrend will occur

Double tops in upper band of Bollinger Band also a clearly signal for reversal from uptrend to downtrend.

PERIOD 4:

This time will starting with point 6.

We have double bottoms in lower band in Bollinger band >>> bounce up

ADX go down >>> downtrend is weaker than before

DI+ cross up DI- >>> uptrend will be next for middle

In the point 7, we have RSI divergence is very clearly signal for reversal trend ( uptrend to downtrend )

ADX go down >>> uptrend is weaker than before

DI- cross up DI+ >>> downtrend

PERIOD 5:

We will analysis point 8 and point 9 in this PERIOD.

Do you see something familiar with us? In point 8 , yes, it is Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and we have big blue candle break neck line >> uptrend for middle term

See again, we can realize it early by RSI divergence with Left Shoulder and Head.

We also analysis Directional Movement and candle in Right shoulder.

We have combination of 3 candle called Three White Soldiers >> strong signal for uptrend

ADX over 20 and DI+ cross up DI- will be another signal for uptrend

In point 9, we have RSI oversold >>> signal for downtrend

ADX nearly sideway >>> uptrend will not strong and weaker

DI+ go up and DI - go down >>> early signal for downtrend

AFTER PERIOD:

We will analysis and consider about point 10 and point 11.

In point 10, we just have RSI divergence for reversal signal

In point 11, we have big Bearish Engulfing >> downtrend

OK guys, I have just analyzed and extracted a lot of data for the process of forming Bitcoin price model over several periods and how we perceive the reversal of each point in the chart.

Now I will give my opinion in total general of market and my choice for UP or DOWN in 2018 - 2019 and why I choose that? How the price going and which these important zone that we need to take care.

*** UP OR DOWN 2018 - 2019

Long writing in above show many repeat patterns, repeat Fibonacci that price bounce back, repeat RSI divergence and much more, it is simple but we are in the “CRAZY GAME” of market.

Let consider about the RSI in point 5 7 and 9. We have lower top in next time but RSI is higher than before when the price in peak? Why? Which mean of this?

It mean Bull dont strong like before and Bear are winner in next time next time, guys.

After we are debated by Bear, we all come back to 5800 - 6000 area and bounce from hare 4 times. The buyer in here is crow. But the time for accumulate and bounce back is take more time. It mean we are vey hard for next bounce in future. Most recently when we bounce to 74xx and be drop to 61xx in just several day with big volume in red candle, people not interesting with this market? So what about next?

We are in DESCENDING TRIANGLE , we can break up or down and it will decide all the crypto market in 2018 - 2019 when Bitcoin decide to break upper line or lower line.

Now is very important time for watching market.

The volume is lower lower than each last time, I think very difficult for innovation uptrend right now!

Look all general at RSI + the action of market react when Bitcoin come to SUPPORT ZONE weaker weaker than before so I think we are maybe DOWNTREND in 2018 - 2019.

This is my opinion, UPTREND will occur and we need BIG NEWs for that. Everythinks will be happen.

The SUPPORT ZONE and RESISTANCE ZONE is very IMPORTANT.

If we dropping below SUPPORT ZONE so we will come to BOTTOM ZONE and I think the market will bounce from here. (2800 - 3600$)

This is my last chart in TOP Tradingview, all you can enjoy:


Thank for reading and LIKE it for my hard working!
Sep 18
Comment: BITCOIN UPDATE 2H
Sep 19
Comment: This report analysis for 2018 - 2019 that I collect data and watch market in long time and writing it in 1 day working. So if you feel interesting or you can get something meaning from this. Please LIKE for encourage me for another post!
Sep 19
Comment: XRP/BTC 4H update:
Sep 19
Comment: Update BTCUSD LONGS
Sep 20
Comment: EOS / BTC 4H chart update if you need this:
Sep 20
Comment: ADA/BTC 4H
Sep 21
Comment: Bitcoin 4H update
Sep 24
Comment: BITCOIN UPDATE LAST DAY
Sep 24
Comment: BTC update
Sep 25
Comment: Guys, we are nearly must to decide UP or DOWN. We are all wrong just market is true. Wait for reaction! All predictions right now with 100% sure in market are humorous!
Sep 26
Comment: Bitcoin update 27/9/2018
Sep 27
Comment: BITCOIN 3D UPDATE
Sep 28
Comment: ALL CRYPTO MARKET ANALYSIS POST
Sep 28
Comment: BITCOIN MULTIPLE TIME FRAME

Sep 29
Comment: BITCOIN 4H UPDATE 30/9/2018
Oct 01
Comment: BITCOIN (BLX) EDUCATION
Oct 03
Comment:
Oct 07
Comment: LITE COIN CYCLE (LTC/USD) - xuanhaimmoer


RIPPLE CYCLE


ETH CYCLE


MONERO (XMR/USD) CYCLE


ETHEREUM CLASSIC CYCLE
Oct 15
Comment: BITCOIN AFTER USDT FUD NEW - EDUCATIONAL
Oct 20
Comment: BITCOIN ANALYSIS - NEWS & PSYCHOLOGY & MARKET ACTION - LEGENDARY
Oct 22
Comment: COMPARING BITCOIN 5D WITH NASDAQ 1M - GOD
Oct 27
Comment: BITCOIN & GOLD & USOIL & S&P500 & DOLLAR INDEX - Comparing
Oct 29
Comment: Update Bitcoin 4H
Nov 14
Comment: BITCOIN & CRYPTO MARKET IN TERRIBLE PICTURE - LEGENDARY REPORT
Dec 04
Comment: BITCOIN - HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN
Dec 06
Comment: BITCOIN 2H - WAIT ACTION OF MARKET
Dec 07
Comment: BITCOIN - Retest Success - Fall down
Dec 15
Comment: NEW UPDATE

BITCOIN - WHERE WE ARE IN CYCLE ? - LONG TERM ANALYSIS
Dec 15
Comment: NEW UPDATE 16/12/2018

BITCOIN - BOOMING TIME WILL HAPPEN ?
Dec 17
Comment: UPDATE 17/12/2018

BITCOIN - ANALYSIS WITH MACD AND VOLUME
Dec 18
Comment: Update Bitcoin Analysis 18/12/2018

BITCOIN - DID WE MISS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR BUYING ?
You need to add middle way
Reply
Yes, this market needs more time to digest the massive run last year. As usual the case, a small rise into ICE opening then down again in a big way. Unfortunately the alts have already broken their 4 th wave from last year so I’m expecting them to get cut in half again. This is when there will be blood in the streets and running for the hills. The other point that needs to be made is re the dollar, which I expect to rise next year. This will put pressure on the CC market. Next year will be illogical. What u think should rise, will fall and visa versa. Up will be down. Prelude coming in the fall. In nutshell: SM up, dollar up, euro implodes, Btc down, gold down, commodities down, oil down, bonds down. US gets all the love as we r last man standing. One last thought. With BTC breaking the 5600-5900 range, THAT puts us at the beginning of a bear market. We r not technically in a bear at the moment, although it feels like it. If we break down in Nov, then it’s also possible this true bear lasts u til Jan 2020.
Reply
I see the same in your last update. Thanks. I see you are more discussing what I'm reading in TA book.
Reply
"Guys, we are nearly must to decide UP or DOWN. We are all wrong just market is true. Wait for reaction! All predictions right now with 100% sure in market are humorous!"

I'm 100% sure we won't go below 5800 again (I'll even go so far as to say 6100). I'm 100% sure we will hit 26k+, before ever coming back below 6k (if ever again). This is excluding a flash crash. I'm talking about extended closing below this general 6k line.

What's humorous is all of this wheel-spinning excessive nonsense you've got masquerading as "real TA", lol.

Proper TA will show u de wei

PS - EOS is not a bearish pennant. It's a double bottom like every single other alt right now.
Reply
This is a real Masterpiece!! Awesome and Thank you!
Reply
Thanks bro
Reply
are we in buy mode yet? can new buyers come in and defend BTC 6000 one more time?
Reply
Hello X, in terms of time and price I can see a pop back up to the trend line by month end ( anticipation of ETF approval which will be delayed.) Then back down hard in Oct. I still see this basing into 2019, maybe Late Jan/Feb, then a turn around. But due to WS thieves entering and manipulating market I don’t see the volatility coming back into this space.
Reply
Thank you for the post and the work you put in. You said SHARKS and I want to base my argumentation on that.

Two things I'd like to mention here looking at a manipulated market by USDT, Futures Contracts etc.
A. Everything worked perfectly after Fibonacci Levels, this looks like one easy plan for Big Boys to drive. Considering this and a perfectly drawn Descending Triangle (by them), the triangle feels like a huge trap for the whole world (expect the insiders)
B. Looking at the timeframe and the chart, an uptrend somewhere to 11500$ Levels look more likely. More Big Boys and more money is probably going to flow into the market in 2019/2020. If we just fall to 3000$ Levels now, the drop of the whole market from 20000$ to 3000$ would have been way to fast IMO and the necessary regulations, ETFs etc are not in place, so that's why I think an uptrend is needed to win more time to develop the market.. Than we can drop to wherever you want.
Reply
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