Since everyone around is calling for BTC to da moon. Here's a skeptics view and I am going to make an EARLY and BOLD call on BTC here. I want to lay out what I will be looking for at this area up here. Whether it goes UP more, or DOWN more.
If you are following me you know I was a week early with my Inverse head and shoulders pattern, while good that we identified it, its unfortunate that I didn't take full advantage of it and enter in at the proper time at the right should bottom at 6.1k... I am glad that some of you did and kudos to those who made money. And hey, the pattern did hit, but unfortunately I was already out of the trade since I was early and got whipsawed. It happens.
In the spirit of making calls to early, here is another EARLY CALL. !
The EARLY call is that I think we are going to turn around at this 7.5-7.7k area and move back down as opposed to continuing moving up. Why?
1. Massive Trendline that has held up multiple times.
2. We created a LOWER LOW with this last wave down at 5.7k. Not being able to hold 6.6k or 6k for that matter I don't think is a good thing.
3. RSI is will be hitting this massive double top and oversold area on the RSI.
A. I imagine that will see a pull back in BTC, a move up, maybe it takes some time. But if you see RSI forming some type of divergence or if it stalls. We will be going down. Take a look at the last couple times BTC formed a divergence or RSI was oversold. BTC had a bump back up, then it came cratering down.
I want to lay this out so we know what to look for in the event of something happening that follows this prediction. I also outlined that if we get a solid break of this 7.7k-8k area up here, we should get a move to the upside. I would start looking for trade set ups for a continuation move to just under 10k. We will see what happens this next week.
the BOLD call is I bet we start turning on some type of negative news event, that JUST so happens to be realized after we linger around this 7.6k area for a while. I have no idea what it will be, maybe something with Tether, EOS? (I bet EOS, I mean 75% of EOS is owned by 100 people, wtf.) Who knows, but if something that comes out at the time that it JUST happens to be hitting the trendline area at the same time, don't be surprised folks. You can look at previous tops and barrages of FUD would all come out at once to drive BTC down from a point.
Happy Trading,
-Sherem
If you are following me you know I was a week early with my Inverse head and shoulders pattern, while good that we identified it, its unfortunate that I didn't take full advantage of it and enter in at the proper time at the right should bottom at 6.1k... I am glad that some of you did and kudos to those who made money. And hey, the pattern did hit, but unfortunately I was already out of the trade since I was early and got whipsawed. It happens.
In the spirit of making calls to early, here is another EARLY CALL. !
The EARLY call is that I think we are going to turn around at this 7.5-7.7k area and move back down as opposed to continuing moving up. Why?
1. Massive Trendline that has held up multiple times.
2. We created a LOWER LOW with this last wave down at 5.7k. Not being able to hold 6.6k or 6k for that matter I don't think is a good thing.
3. RSI is will be hitting this massive double top and oversold area on the RSI.
A. I imagine that will see a pull back in BTC, a move up, maybe it takes some time. But if you see RSI forming some type of divergence or if it stalls. We will be going down. Take a look at the last couple times BTC formed a divergence or RSI was oversold. BTC had a bump back up, then it came cratering down.
I want to lay this out so we know what to look for in the event of something happening that follows this prediction. I also outlined that if we get a solid break of this 7.7k-8k area up here, we should get a move to the upside. I would start looking for trade set ups for a continuation move to just under 10k. We will see what happens this next week.
the BOLD call is I bet we start turning on some type of negative news event, that JUST so happens to be realized after we linger around this 7.6k area for a while. I have no idea what it will be, maybe something with Tether, EOS? (I bet EOS, I mean 75% of EOS is owned by 100 people, wtf.) Who knows, but if something that comes out at the time that it JUST happens to be hitting the trendline area at the same time, don't be surprised folks. You can look at previous tops and barrages of FUD would all come out at once to drive BTC down from a point.
Happy Trading,
-Sherem
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Here is the Inverse Head and Shoulders call I was to early on as an FYI -
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To be clear, I think it's going down. But it wouldn't be proper of me if I didn't acknowledge that it could still go up if it breaks this trend line and resistance area.
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We're getting some pull backs and RSI is starting to bend a bit. Lets see what happens here.
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We're hoovering around this area still. A quick note I was looking at, last time RSI peaked at the green line, it took 11 days before it started falling. Before that it was 14-15 days before falling. Looks like we are going to hit those time parameters if it keeps chopping around from here. I updated the chart with the time for you to take a look at.
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Some movement coming as I write this
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Big rejection of the $7,700 level and a $300 point drop, looks like it's creating more doji's on various time frames. ALt's aren't rallying from what I am seeing. If people are dumping alt's to go to btc, logically the next step is dump btc for cash. If that starts happening, ro-oh!
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Big move back to the upside for BTC. Creating somewhat of an RSI double top on the daily, while showing some divergence on the 6hour time frame. So far it's following the green arrows I drew fairly closely, we are getting close to the 11 day mark, maybe movement happens sooner? We'll see!
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At first i thought this could be forming a bull flag with the back and forth action on BTC, but it looks more like a megaphone, doesn't it? Megaphone patterns are interesting because it dictates that the price could breakout either way as opposed to just up like a bull flag would indicate.
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Well we are breaking this trendline, to do the trade correctly you would buy on a retest or on confirmation. RSI is still very overbought which is concerning but no divergence indicating a move down yet.
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For anyone waiting on an entry point for BTC, consider the ETH trade I posted about.
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Quick BTC update, for those of you wondering what to do, BTC is coming down to this buy area for a continuation move. See that new orange line I drew right around 7.8k, that would be your support point that should hold for a move higher. stop just below there. And it's also retesting this broken trendline. We have broken pretty much every downward trendline I have seen, which is bullish.
Remember in my first post we were looking for divergence to form in RSI and for an 11 day time period. Which we didn't get either. All though RSI is high, we haven't formed a divergence yet. Which means we have room to push up.
and check out this Weekly chart. Look at what the MACD is doing, it looks good. There should be some resistance at 9k, and I imagine we'll have a major pull back once we hit just under 10k.
I do think ETH and LTC offer better plays ATM, but the choice is yours!
Remember in my first post we were looking for divergence to form in RSI and for an 11 day time period. Which we didn't get either. All though RSI is high, we haven't formed a divergence yet. Which means we have room to push up.
and check out this Weekly chart. Look at what the MACD is doing, it looks good. There should be some resistance at 9k, and I imagine we'll have a major pull back once we hit just under 10k.
I do think ETH and LTC offer better plays ATM, but the choice is yours!
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Started a new thread from the last post -
