OK, so there are many projections based upon past bubbles and their respective bursts that are much harsher than this one, but, we all know that the crypto bubble is not like the other ones, or do we ?
Many claim there is much more fundamental value to blockchain than to the tech bubble, this could be the case but regardless, crypto is currently in a, WHAT!? a bubble!
Everyone in the crypto space gets so emotional when people call it a bubble ? Yes we are all highly zealous about decentralization and unbanking the world and ending the bureacracy and our emotional reaction is normal, but please, let me tell you why I think it is wrong and dangerous.
So, why do I among all people still think the crypto bubble is no different than others ? It's simple! The number one reason is that the people who are calling crypto market a bubble are the very ones that created it in the first place and they know it! It is the investors and speculators who inflated BTC prices past 1000$, not the real crypto community! Where does this money come from ? It is not real cryptoanarchists and blockchain enthousiasts who did it, the true BTC community never had that capital LOL. Think about that for a while!
Yes, the price went up too fast and there are still many speculators that will be taking profits or cutting losses as they realize how artificial the prices were, and who can blame them?
We really have to realize that the largest percentage of the investors that inflated BTC past 1000$-ish since the price inflated lack fundamental understanding of the true potential of crypto and the distributed public ledger. 90% of crypto investors who inflated BTC pas 1K$ are NOT real crypto beleivers and crypto nerds!!! WAKE UP, they are NOT the REAL HODLERS like the rest of the community. So don't let them wash your investments away! Do you really think the original crypto community ever had that kind of money ? No. The answer to this bubble is as simple as that. Most of those high profile speculators have no idea about basic technical concepts that are powering bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, yes most of the money that entered the crypto space will exit through the same doors and only after the weakest hands are shaken off will we see prices skyrocketing and coinciding with the real adoption of the blockchain tech.
As far as the TA is concerned the on the log scale is pretty much self explanatory. I don't trade intraday or any short term scale using solely TA, anyone relying only on TA is doomed or very lucky. We are bound to see either a downtrend continuation or some sideways activity preceding it, but given that our 8month is now clearly broken it is highly probable that we will sa a retest of the long term trend that dates back to mid 2015.
Self proclaimed analysts that are drowning in dozens of fancy indicators and messy charts generally have no idea what they are doing! The only things one needs are couple of or MAs, basic indicators and solid Fundamentals to coincide with your TA, and vice versa. The only times one should actually open positions is when the TA and fundamentals validate each other, those are the only real winners!!
Please note this analysis is for educational purposes and a warning to the crypto community, not a trading advice. I am not an intraday or a short term trader. DYOR!