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Short

Shedding light on crypto bubble dilemma, BTC to test 3K levels

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
First of all I am a tech person and a crypto believer and not your average high profile investor with deep pockets. I've been studying block-chain tech for the past two years, trust me, there are many weak hands holding (not HODLing) crypto that will be shaking off in the weeks to follow. We need to be careful!

OK, so there are many bearish projections based upon past bubbles and their respective bursts that are much harsher than this one, but, we all know that the crypto bubble is not like the other ones, or do we ?

Many claim there is much more fundamental value to blockchain than to the tech bubble, this could be the case but regardless, crypto is currently in a, WHAT!? a bubble!
Everyone in the crypto space gets so emotional when people call it a bubble ? Yes we are all highly zealous about decentralization and unbanking the world and ending the bureacracy and our emotional reaction is normal, but please, let me tell you why I think it is wrong and dangerous.

So, why do I among all people still think the crypto bubble is no different than others ? It's simple! The number one reason is that the people who are calling crypto market a bubble are the very ones that created it in the first place and they know it! It is the investors and speculators who inflated BTC prices past 1000$, not the real crypto community! Where does this money come from ? It is not real cryptoanarchists and blockchain enthousiasts who did it, the true BTC community never had that capital LOL. Think about that for a while!

Yes, the price went up too fast and there are still many speculators that will be taking profits or cutting losses as they realize how artificial the prices were, and who can blame them?

We really have to realize that the largest percentage of the investors that inflated BTC past 1000$-ish since the price inflated lack fundamental understanding of the true potential of crypto and the distributed public ledger. 90% of crypto investors who inflated BTC pas 1K$ are NOT real crypto beleivers and crypto nerds!!! WAKE UP, they are NOT the REAL HODLERS like the rest of the community. So don't let them wash your investments away! Do you really think the original crypto community ever had that kind of money ? No. The answer to this bubble is as simple as that. Most of those high profile speculators have no idea about basic technical concepts that are powering bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, yes most of the money that entered the crypto space will exit through the same doors and only after the weakest hands are shaken off will we see prices skyrocketing and coinciding with the real adoption of the blockchain tech.

As far as the TA is concerned the broken trendline on the log scale is pretty much self explanatory. I don't trade intraday or any short term scale using solely TA, anyone relying only on TA is doomed or very lucky. We are bound to see either a downtrend continuation or some sideways activity preceding it, but given that our 8month trendline is now clearly broken it is highly probable that we will sa a retest of the long term trend that dates back to mid 2015.

Self proclaimed analysts that are drowning in dozens of fancy indicators and messy charts generally have no idea what they are doing! The only things one needs are couple of trendlines or MAs, basic indicators and solid Fundamentals to coincide with your TA, and vice versa. The only times one should actually open positions is when the TA and fundamentals validate each other, those are the only real winners!!

Please note this analysis is for educational purposes and a warning to the crypto community, not a trading advice. I am not an intraday or a short term trader. DYOR!

Take care.

operater, out.
The most common thing for investors and traders to do is sell off everything until the market is stable again. That's what I did. If a coin is in buy mode or strong buy then you look into investing. If not then leave it alone. It wasn't always perfect but that's what I did. Yes I know the important thing first is to look at the state of BTC itself. If BTC is tanking, then it's very risky investing in altcoins whether against BTC or USD no matter how well an altcoin seem to be performing. So at this point I know it's not a good time to get back in. I'm a true believer of what crypto future holds but I'll be a fool to continue accumulating crypto while the market is tanking. What is happening now is all the BTC holding from the corrupt is now changing hands to the true crypto community. Kind of half ass how they're doing it but it's happening. Waiting for all this to air out. Would be nice to go back to last Feb 2017 numbers so I can have a fresh new start with last year profit.
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Nicely done. Love the clean analysis and the LONG TERM analysis.
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