For some reason, I've been seeing a lot of people who are suddenly claiming that when the 50 day MA (orange) crosses below the 200 day MA (purple,) it isn't a "death cross," unless the 50 and 200 MAs are both falling. I'm assuming that a bunch of people must have seen that on a YouTube video or something, but let me make one thing clear — whoever told you that is spreading false information. What I find so amazing, is that people hear something like that, and then they comment all over the internet like it's a fact of TA, without even taking TWO SECONDS to look at a chart to see if it's a true statement.
In the case of BTC, all you have to do to realize that the aforementioned statement is false, is look at the cross after the all time high. The 200 was rising, and a big bad bear market ensued. To determine the technical importance of a particular cross, analysts generally look at the trend leading into the cross (uptrend, downtrend, long consolidation period) as well as other underlying indicators like the weekly momentum on the MACD. There are many other indicators, but we'll stick with that for simplicity.
So, we have a death cross, but BTC isn't in a terrible technical position yet. Let's break down a few of BTC's technical pros and cons.
CONS:
PROS:
Clearly BTC is showing us several mixed signals right now. The good thing is that there are certain things on the chart that we can watch, to try to catch the beginning of the next big move. The biggest feature to watch is the top of the bull flag. If there is a bullish breakout, especially one that prints a higher high on the chart, that will be a strong indication that the trend is returning to the upside. On the downside, if price falls below the 50 and 200 MA's again, and particularly if it falls below the 61.8% retrace, there could be a lot more downside risk remaining in BTC.
So, yes, we did have a death cross, but the tecnicals are currently mixed, and we need to watch the aforementioned features to be able to determine the direction of the next big move whenever it begins to materialize.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
In the case of BTC, all you have to do to realize that the aforementioned statement is false, is look at the cross after the all time high. The 200 was rising, and a big bad bear market ensued. To determine the technical importance of a particular cross, analysts generally look at the trend leading into the cross (uptrend, downtrend, long consolidation period) as well as other underlying indicators like the weekly momentum on the MACD. There are many other indicators, but we'll stick with that for simplicity.
So, we have a death cross, but BTC isn't in a terrible technical position yet. Let's break down a few of BTC's technical pros and cons.
CONS:
- BTC is in a clear downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the rally to 13,800.
- BTC Just printed a death cross on the chart.
- The momentum is bearish on the MACD, although it is attempting to transition back to the upside.
- There hasn't been a bullish weekly MACD crossover yet.
- BTC just defined the weekly 21 MA as resistance, after breaking down below it about a month ago.
- BTC fell below the 200 day MA, in a way that isn't consistent with previous bull markets.
PROS:
- BTC could be in a massive bull flag right now.
- BTC was able to rally back above the 50 and 200 MA death cross, but has not yet held it as support.
- The Gaussian Channel is green and rising.
- BTC just held the top of the Gaussian Channel, which actually converged exactly with the 61.8% retrace (in blue.)
- We can clearly watch for an upside breakout of the bull flag, to know if BTC will continue higher in the near future.
- The MACD is trying to turn to the upside, but hasn't printed a bullish crossover yet.
Clearly BTC is showing us several mixed signals right now. The good thing is that there are certain things on the chart that we can watch, to try to catch the beginning of the next big move. The biggest feature to watch is the top of the bull flag. If there is a bullish breakout, especially one that prints a higher high on the chart, that will be a strong indication that the trend is returning to the upside. On the downside, if price falls below the 50 and 200 MA's again, and particularly if it falls below the 61.8% retrace, there could be a lot more downside risk remaining in BTC.
So, yes, we did have a death cross, but the tecnicals are currently mixed, and we need to watch the aforementioned features to be able to determine the direction of the next big move whenever it begins to materialize.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-