without_worries

Bitcoin to $52k by end of March

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSDC   BTC/USDC
Maybe by March 10th. Yes, 46 days from now.

The number of short ideas on tradingview right now is funtastic. $25k, $20k, $15.. and so on.

Price action could not break $29.8k on July 20th with 2,568,000,000 exchange reserves @ $29.8k it is not going to break $30k with 2,379,000,000 today. A year ago today, Jan 24th 2021: 2,452,000,000 @ $32.3k

I don’t know where the bottom is, but it very close and will be found by mid-Feb at the latest between the above numbers $32.2 to $35k (the orange lines on the above 1-day chart). This is not a place you should be going short.

As for statistics, this one is sickening. Over the last 1-2 weeks almost 80% of selling volume came address created last year. Can you believe that? I don’t know what prices those coins were acquired but it is very likely they were sold at a loss.

To the date and target.

Red boxes:

66 days exactly from the peak price action to the death cross. Both previous and current. Spooky.

Orange boxes:

32 days from the death cross to the breakout, that would mean sideways price action between $34k and $41k between now and February 15th.

From the June death cross price action fell a max of 23% (wick to wick). Just where price action is now, -24% at $34k. It is no coincidence $34.4k and $36k are offering a lot support, look left, right on top of past resistance.

Green boxes:

It took price action 24 days to return to the 0.618 golden ratio as measured from peak to trough (April through June). Now the only assumption made here is the bottom is $34k. If the bottom is $32k it takes $500 off the $52k target. No great shakes.

The sell off over the last several days was drastic, the recovery could be just as quick, like March 2020. Look left. This is the reason for the March 10th date. However should the recovery be elongated as with the summer of 2021; then by end of March.

What will drive the recovery? The end of the stock market correction. There’s an idea about that coming up, keep a look out! Much will depend on what the FED says this coming week during the Tuesday / Wednesday meetings.

Good luck.

WW
Comment: Should add for those that believe the market top is in. Below is the weekly log growth curves. Clearly this cycle has not yet achieved the market top. If price action does fall to the $30k area it would be on the lower log growth curve (black line), basically a fire sale - look left! Look closer and you'll see a thin blue line. Do you see how many times that has acted as resistance over the years? Now do you see what price action is testing as support?

Anything between $30k to $68k is playing in sandbox, the real fireworks have yet to come.

Comment: A lot of PM's at the moment. Can't go through them all. I get the gist, here's the answer:

If you’re freaking out right now, you’ll love this. Here to keep you ‘without worries’.

Remember what I said on another idea about candle bodies outside the Bollinger Band? It is one of my favourite statistics that never gets old, 95% of all candle bodies trade inside the band. When they pop out (above or below the band) it is an opportunity. I extend my thanks to sellers for giving me this opportunity ;)

The analysis:

This is a good example. On the 2-day chart below significant extensions outside the band are highlighted in pink, the first being March 2020.

The red labels measure the time from popping out the band to the max bottom. On all events on this scale it was ~6 days sometimes less, taking current correction bottom until January 27th latest.

The blue labels inform us when price action will return to the same price it excited the band. 44 days for March 2020. Some where 15 days, others 20 something. With this knowledge it is highly probable price action will be back at $42k before mid-February.

After price action returns to the Bollinger band exit location… price action will then rally 40% minimum, in this instance taking price action back to the previous all time high (dates as above).

You’re now getting a snippet of the effort that goes into those time and date ideas. Study pays, emotion takes it away.

WW

Comment: A quick update to the 2-day chart above.. price action returned to the Bollinger Band a lot quicker than was expected. Clearly the support about $35k is very strong.

Price action also appeared to break price action resistance and then was quickly rejected. The apex of the falling wedge is very close, Feb 10th. Could see the target as early as next Friday (yes February 11th). A ‘V’ shaped recovery continues to look likely, time will tell.

Should RSI 32 confirm as support the next 2-3 days, then it’s sunny days ahead. Look left. RSI broken this level then broke back up and is now testing as support. Look left!

Comment: The 'V' shaped recovery appears to be playing out. Should it continue.. then the target will be achieved long before the end of March.
Comment: Not touched any drawing on the above chart, now shown below. Price action has moved to the upper half of the Bollinger Band with a test of the mean (pink line) expected in the days ahead (remember the mean is rising with each day).

Target remains valid with a buy below $41k as excellent.

Price action confirming support on the mean would print an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the extension topping above target around $56k.

Comment: Do you see the inverse head and shoulders? A break above $45.5k (the neckline) will see price action take off over $50k. Depending on the neckline break time, target is around $55k by extension.

Comment: Obviously the above H&S did not work out. No worries. On every exchange I track on the 5-day chart a buy signal is printing. The market is significantly oversold.

The last time I added to my BTC position was around $34k. That is being repeated today and I can tell you it is not easy.

The lower time frames suggest this selling pressure could continue until mid-March. It does not affect this idea and target, however.

Comment: Above chart was the Gemini exchange. This is Coinbase:

Comment: A few messages waiting for me today asking if this idea is now void.

Short answer: Absolutely not.

Long answer:

The market is so fickle. +/- $3-4k and everyone loses their minds. It is not important.

On the 5-day chart below there’s something you should see. The orange line on the RSI. More or less at 34. Then there’s the purple circles, that’s identifying the moment Stochastic RSI moved above 50, i.e. momentum is building.

The point is, look left, as Stochastic RSI crosses up 50 following a touch of RSI 34, price action throughout history all of BTC history makes at least a 50% upward move.

Chill chinchillas.

Comment: Be careful... short positions have rocketed up 300% in the last 72-hours. When the crowd goes short price action tends to do the opposite - look left.

Comment: 10 days to go, will the target be met?

Here’s what I see… on the 2-day chart (below) everything is continuing to point towards a 30% upside move in near the future.

Within the red box price action is testing the 2-day / 50-day SMA, currently twice rejected. Latterly price action is finding support on past resistance (the purple line). Price action needs to hold $40.5k.

Between support and resistance price action is squeezing towards an apex by April 5th. However once a breakout is achieved, up or down, it will be energetic and cause a lot of FOMO or Fear. A break of the 50-day SMA will see price action move quickly to $47k. A break of support would be back to the low $30k area.

The target remains with the golden ratio as in past rallies. What is interesting to me is what happens after $52k, I’ve no idea other than to say the target must be met with volume. Lots of it. If the volume is lacklustre this rally will likely be a massive fake out.

Comment: $5k to go
Comment: So close yet so far!

Price action below $43.8k is very improbable in this healthy pull back.
Look for the $52k target by Mid-April.
Comment:
Trade active: ** target update: $55k **

A 'incredible buy' signal just printed on the 6hr. 30% rise in price action with the previous two signals - look left. Don't expect this signal to be any different.

Comment: Look for $38.5k support
Comment: As mentioned a week ago, look for $38.5k support. Market structure is $37.8k (blue line). A break here would almost certainly see a fall to the next support level, $33k.

The target is unchanged. True.

The sell offs since the year began continue to be loss selling positions according to the on-chain data. Rather incredible. The strength of the sell offs is weakening, however, that's why higher lows are printing.

There's absolutely nothing to do, be patient.

Comment: $20k one minute $50k the next, I know I know… but I can’t be one or the other, must look at bullish as well as the bearish case.

Price action is threatening to collapse from the 600-day SMA as mentioned in the ‘Bitcoin to $20k idea’, I would submit ‘looking left’ is more important than tracking moving averages, which I’m no big fan of.

On the 1-day chart below price action has shown remarkable confluence on a support / resistance trend line. The resistance was recently broken and is now currently testing as support.

Price action has until May 10th to confirm support.

Trade active: Meant to share this earlier but forgot, been travelling...

A 'incredible buy' prints on the 22hr chart. This signal printed twice before in late January and February with a following 30% upside move. A repeat move would take price action to $52k.

Comment: Is Bitcoin going to $20k??

Lost count the number of times that message has repeated itself in the inbox last couple of days.

Folks, I’ve not got a clue. Anyone who tells you otherwise, run a mile.

What I can tell you is about the probabilities. And they say NO.

There is the above 22hr chart with a ‘incredible buy’ signal.

And there is this daily chart… Look closely at the support trend line. This trend line is at least 5 years old. It is significant.

Isn’t it interest this trend is testing as the 22hr prints ‘incredible buy’. Now you’re thinking like me.

Comment: Price action is consolidating, on breakout its ether $32k or $52k, which will it be? Exciting ;)

Comment: $20k! $14k! What about the 3-day death cross!?! What about the bear flag?! Such and such said... typical messages coming in at the moment.

Were I to trade alone from the messages I receive I'd say with ease the majority of folks are bearish. What does that mean for club 5%? We're bullish. Emotions folks, a money killer.

You want the news? The charts tells you all. Right now the chart says, be patient.. on the daily chart below price action is consolidating within a falling wedge pattern as it approaches significant support. AS long as candle BODIES (ignore wicks) on the daily remain within the wedge, all is good.

When price action breaks out of the wedge the $52k target will be met, and praises will be sung.

When price action hits $20k, talk to the accounts department and I'll arrange a refund.

Trade active: A number of significant ‘things’ have happened:

On the 2-day chart below:

1) Price action breaks out of resistance.

2) Stochastic RSI crosses up 20. It has been 130 days since that happened! December.

The breakout of the falling wedge takes price action to the $52k target. Except alt-tokens to do their thing by this time.

Comment: Expect massive support around the $35.5k area.

Remember the last sell off down to $34.k in early January? Am certain those sellers haven't returned to finish the job - you only sell once.
Comment: Whilst the narrative amongst the interweb is:

1) $20k is next! (remember summer of 2021)

2) The 3-day death cross!

3) The massive bear flag is projecting a collapse to $14-20k..

Whilst all this narrative is driving selling pressure it is interesting who is doing the selling. Studying the glassnode data it is apparent the wallets that acquired Bitcoin during 2021 are by mostly today’s sellers.

Latterly throughout the weekend (and much of last week is also true), on the coinbase and Binance exchanges particularly (I don’t know why) consistent $40-65m dollar limit orders are filled by the short-term wallet holders.

Wealth transfer for the 5% in progress people.

Comment: A 'incredible buy' signal just printed on the 10hr for those of you interested in timing the market.


My time is spent studying so you don't have to. Is that of value to you? Then help me keep it of value to me;)

BTC
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ETH
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Allow up to 6 months on Crypto ideas.
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