Disclaimer - I'm still kind of a noob when it comes to tranding & crypto so take this with a grain of salt and feel free to critique my analysis :)
Ok so in a previous BTC post I may have seemed pretty bearish on BTC - the reality is, I am just not as bullish long-term as a lot of the internet hype crowd (for instance I think folks need to stop dismissing the very real environmental impacts of BTC's PoW), but i do see long-term growth as being pretty likely.
What are we looking at on the chart? My view is BTC continues ranging/consolidating around 52-60k over the next few weeks. Folks hoping for 35-42k buy-in time are going to be disappointed, in my opinion at least, since it seems that every institution wants to both a) buy lower, but b) doesn't want to miss out on any chance to buy. Which means that they are all likely to be DCAing in during any dip. So with this in mind, maybe someone can explain to me how we would actually get to everyone's dream buy level?
We haven't had a daily close below 49k for over 2 months - and the only close below 50k in that time period was immediately following a fairly weak & ill-fated move to 64k that invited some rapid profit-taking... and the price looked, to my eyes, like it over-corrected an amount equivalent to the overextended up-move. I'm guessing that it was an over-correction mostly because the recovery took very little volume or time to accomplish. Meaning, nobody except a few panicked retail investors and people with 'black swan event' stop-losses were actually selling at those lower prices.
Ok so if it's not going down, then why doesn't BTC go up more? Personally, I think it's as simple as basic market psychology. Reminder to everyone: BTC only cracked 50k in mid-February - and was below 30k at the beginning of the year! So frankly it's gonna take people, especially big players and institutions, a little time to get used to the idea of spending a LOT more for BTC than they might have been planning on, if they had been planning on buying at all, before the current hype & FOMO cycle.
One reason for bullish optimism at the end of this ranging/consolidation is that it looks like we're reaching a major tipping point for wide-scale adoption of crypto in general in broader society. Looking forward to the rest of this year!
Not financial advice. Curious to hear any other opinions on this stuff. Thanks for reading!
******
LOL while I was typing this up BTC took a dive and briefly went below 52k - I guess we'll see what happens. It did bounce back up pretty quick to 52.5k though :)
Ok so in a previous BTC post I may have seemed pretty bearish on BTC - the reality is, I am just not as bullish long-term as a lot of the internet hype crowd (for instance I think folks need to stop dismissing the very real environmental impacts of BTC's PoW), but i do see long-term growth as being pretty likely.
What are we looking at on the chart? My view is BTC continues ranging/consolidating around 52-60k over the next few weeks. Folks hoping for 35-42k buy-in time are going to be disappointed, in my opinion at least, since it seems that every institution wants to both a) buy lower, but b) doesn't want to miss out on any chance to buy. Which means that they are all likely to be DCAing in during any dip. So with this in mind, maybe someone can explain to me how we would actually get to everyone's dream buy level?
We haven't had a daily close below 49k for over 2 months - and the only close below 50k in that time period was immediately following a fairly weak & ill-fated move to 64k that invited some rapid profit-taking... and the price looked, to my eyes, like it over-corrected an amount equivalent to the overextended up-move. I'm guessing that it was an over-correction mostly because the recovery took very little volume or time to accomplish. Meaning, nobody except a few panicked retail investors and people with 'black swan event' stop-losses were actually selling at those lower prices.
Ok so if it's not going down, then why doesn't BTC go up more? Personally, I think it's as simple as basic market psychology. Reminder to everyone: BTC only cracked 50k in mid-February - and was below 30k at the beginning of the year! So frankly it's gonna take people, especially big players and institutions, a little time to get used to the idea of spending a LOT more for BTC than they might have been planning on, if they had been planning on buying at all, before the current hype & FOMO cycle.
One reason for bullish optimism at the end of this ranging/consolidation is that it looks like we're reaching a major tipping point for wide-scale adoption of crypto in general in broader society. Looking forward to the rest of this year!
Not financial advice. Curious to hear any other opinions on this stuff. Thanks for reading!
******
LOL while I was typing this up BTC took a dive and briefly went below 52k - I guess we'll see what happens. It did bounce back up pretty quick to 52.5k though :)