BTC/USDT moving down targeting $8500 as a new lower low?

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
looking at the 1 hr chart and trying to figure what has happened so far from a Fib perspective..

Summary : i think it looks like an impulse down that is about to finish with a 5 wave going to the down side. yet the bullish potential of having a deep retrace for a bounce attempt is still not invalidated as we bounced off the 0.786 so far.

my fib analysis for what happened so far in my opinion:

0. after we failed to achieve a higher high we rejected to the downside with what looks like an impulse wave down.

1. we impulse down as wave 1, bouncing back to to a fib of 0.5 ( a common retrace for wave 1.

2. wave 3 is the longest so far with a clear count of 5 sub waves going down. with a fib attention of 2.0 from wave 1. then it retrace to the common wave 4 retrace of fib 0.382. which looks like a 3 wave going up more than an impulse wave going up from the 0.786 from the bigger correction of the impulse wave before.

if this is a correct count then we are looking for a wave 5 going down, to retest or break previous low of $9060. the break of $9060 will invalidate the bullish scenario on this time frame as a failed wave up.

on a weekly chart it shows we r looking for a test of the 0.382 and confirming we can stay above that level, or we r going to test lower fib retracments as the 0.5 and the 0.618. time will show.

this is my opinion, do u have another way of looking at this on this time frame?


thanks for your work, would appreciate if you also took value from mine