Hi Trading Community,
This is my first post and I thought I will share my idea to give back as well so please bear with me if this post is not perfect:).
There is a lot of talk at the moment about if the bottom of Bitcoin has been reached after an eventful week or are we going further.
Having a look back at price action on BTC/USDT on Binance.
When looking a time cycles from mid 2018 (sorry my char data doesn't reach further back) seems that Bitcoin has every year around mid June a good track record of reaching cycle highs or lows.
June 2018 was a bottom with positive price action after June before we finally dropped of the cliff in November 2018.
17. June 2019 was the market top.
22. June 2020 was the bottom of a minor (about 15%) retracement before the market took off again to the early 2021 high.
21 June 2021 was the weekly bottom before we hit the all time high late 2021.
The question is do we have another mid June 2022 date with a bottom?
You are never 100% sure but looking there is a lot of support for this.
1.) We had a week of strong sell off's with high volume which often is a good indicator that a bottom has been reached.
2.) Have a look at the Fib Levels from the 11. September 2017 low to the all time high. Can you see something? These levels have been well respected over the years but mainly we just hit the 61.8% retracement level from the all time high which is 20,334. This level is also very close to the ATH in 2017. You can also see that this same level was well respected in November 2020. It has taken about 3 weeks of price action and after a clean break the market continued to go higher.
3.) The RSI has reached the lowest level it as been.
Based on above my personal opinion is that the market has reached a bottom at this point in time and we should see some positive price action in the coming week.
Does that mean Bitcoin can't retrace further? It certainly can but based facts we should see a relief rally first.
Feel free to comment on it and share your thoughts. Keep in mind that this is my own view and you should do the same before you decide to take any action.
Thanks
Ralf
This is my first post and I thought I will share my idea to give back as well so please bear with me if this post is not perfect:).
There is a lot of talk at the moment about if the bottom of Bitcoin has been reached after an eventful week or are we going further.
Having a look back at price action on BTC/USDT on Binance.
When looking a time cycles from mid 2018 (sorry my char data doesn't reach further back) seems that Bitcoin has every year around mid June a good track record of reaching cycle highs or lows.
June 2018 was a bottom with positive price action after June before we finally dropped of the cliff in November 2018.
17. June 2019 was the market top.
22. June 2020 was the bottom of a minor (about 15%) retracement before the market took off again to the early 2021 high.
21 June 2021 was the weekly bottom before we hit the all time high late 2021.
The question is do we have another mid June 2022 date with a bottom?
You are never 100% sure but looking there is a lot of support for this.
1.) We had a week of strong sell off's with high volume which often is a good indicator that a bottom has been reached.
2.) Have a look at the Fib Levels from the 11. September 2017 low to the all time high. Can you see something? These levels have been well respected over the years but mainly we just hit the 61.8% retracement level from the all time high which is 20,334. This level is also very close to the ATH in 2017. You can also see that this same level was well respected in November 2020. It has taken about 3 weeks of price action and after a clean break the market continued to go higher.
3.) The RSI has reached the lowest level it as been.
Based on above my personal opinion is that the market has reached a bottom at this point in time and we should see some positive price action in the coming week.
Does that mean Bitcoin can't retrace further? It certainly can but based facts we should see a relief rally first.
Feel free to comment on it and share your thoughts. Keep in mind that this is my own view and you should do the same before you decide to take any action.
Thanks
Ralf