cwidmer743
Short

It's not rocket science..

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
This channel has held firm on both sides for roughly 12 months. This is currently THE bull trend. We typically double-tap this line, so one last blow-off to $7,950 isn't out of the question. That said, Risk/Reward favors the short leg. All reasonable expectations say we correct here moving into B2x mid-Nov.

B2x futures are current trading around $1,450 as of this writing, having been dumped down >10% in the hours prior to the mini-dump we're currently seeing in BTC . As B2x falls in price and the fork draws near, we can expect further pressure on BTC as those re-evaluate the overall combination of their BTC+B2x potential.


Likely bear case: $6,900 - $6,300 - $5,700 - $5,200 Max pain (Or set your orders for a $4,400 flash crash).

Unlikely bull case: If we break and flag above this long-term channel, then all bets are off and the REAL "bubble" begins. Until then.. 'Support-the-short'.
Comment: Are we watching the 7900 blowoff? Can't see this wasn't expected. Great short entry on failure. Conversely, if this channel breaks upwards then all bets are off.
Comment: Blowoff target hit within .6%. Not too shabby. Next Stop 6400
Trade active: First near term target of 6450 hit (within 1% of 6400 target mentioned above). Bounce time.
Comment: Target 3 of $5,700 hit
Trade closed: target reached: Reversal looks to be confirming after hitting the 5500 level and bouncing. May see a double bottom, but R/R now favors LONG trade
Comment: Approaching the resistance line once again, which is aligning with just under 8k. We all know how BTC likes to stop just short of nice round numbers like this before correcting (2950 in June, 4975 in Sept, now 7950 for Nov?)
Trade active: Rinse and Repeat this short play! Downside implies a move UNDER $5,000 for this cycle should resistance hold.
Trade closed: stop reached: 1st attempt at 2nd round short stopped out at break of 8k yesterday. Entry was far too aggressive (Heiken Ashi not yet giving reversal signal) Waiting for rollover confirmation before second attempt. Likely to meltup along this trend line while Alts have their time in the sun.
Trade active: Break of 8k leads to an active short trade with an 8050 stop. Daily Heiken looking to roll over. Watch for btc's classic blowoff before the big dip.
Comment: Heiken rolling over. Get ready for some panic. But first comes the slow bleed. Happy Turkey Day. ; )
Order cancelled: Broke the log channel and retested. If another retest holds then we're off to $10k! Watch out for tons of volatility from the 9-10k range as we approach CME futures trading mid-Nov.
Comment: 1.618 fib ext broken at $10.7k what a beast. LIke I said before, MEGA BULL when trend line breaks. Next stop should be 12.4k or so, but likely consolidation first. Watch for a flash crash....
Comment: Retested Fib channel at 9045 almost to the dollar. So long as that holds, the meg bull continues.
Comment: Look for re-entry around 10k around new years.
Comment: Back into the channel, which held support at the bottom. This 'crash' was simply a mean-reversion. Now is when things could get interesting..
Thanks i like how you follow you up man wish i would of ran into you sooner!!!
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cwidmer743 CoingetterD
@CoingetterD, Thank you. I try to give updates and perspective when possible.
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