Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on Dec 22 2022
The value of BTC lies in storage. Or instead in storing purchasing power. While BTC's greater volatility makes it seem complicated to do this task, the excellent liquidity that comes with 24-hour trading and the ease of transferring funds across national concepts make BTC a reservoir under prolonged central bank easing worldwide. In the long run, BTC's value and market position is constantly moving closer to gold. There are already more and more investors recognizing the value of BTC. With only a constant total of 21 million, incremental capital will drive BTC even higher.
We can see this in the change of addresses on the chain. The number of BTC non-zero addresses has been growing throughout the bear market. A significant rate of growth occurred after FTX triggered the crash. Compare the graph below, and you can see that the rapid growth is in addresses with positions less than 10 BTC. 100+ VIP addresses are flat. And addresses with more than 1,000 mega whales have seen a specific decrease. The total share of the top 100 addresses fell to 14.7% from 15.7% at the end of September, meaning about 190,000 BTC flowed out of the giant whale account. At the same time, the number of addresses more significant than 1 increased by about 70,000. The number of addresses more extensive than 10 increased by about 5,000.
qr61.cn/ohvxTJ/qpcCUTt
So this round of bears' increased holdings of BTC does not have undeniable characteristics of the primary behavior for the time being. The chips are continuously dispersed: holdings of 1-10 coins, 10-100, and 1000-1000 addresses. The coin holdings' percentage is around 20%, with a combined total of over 60%. In addition to VIPs, the middle class has become a significant participant group in Bitcoin. At the same time, the number of addresses holding BTC immobilized for the long term is continuing to increase. Tokens held for more than one year now account for more than 60% of BTC's market cap, returning to pre-bull market levels and hitting new all-time highs.
Overall, we can handle whether there is a future for BTC subsequently. A large number of tokens are already in a locked state. It is still relatively easy to pull up. The previous article also mentioned the role of BTC as a reservoir. And BTC can influence the whole market. So the probability is that there will be a bull market along with the next round of global central bank easing.
qr61.cn/o0Vbwm/qcVNtDe
The beauty of the point is that addresses holding more than 1000 coins have always been representatives of BTC smart money. We can see that after the 2018 crash and throughout the last round, the number of addresses in this segment continued to increase. After that, it started to decrease on May 21. The operation rhythm throughout the bull market was well managed, but it has just returned to the uptrend today. This reflects the cautious mood of some VIPs. The destructive influence of FTX makes it hold vast amounts of wealth. The mega-wealthy group, whose risk appetite is relatively not that great, has become more cautious in investing in the crypto market. Even if the withdrawn mega whales are only a few hundred, the number is not much compared to the more than 40 million coin-holding addresses in Bitcoin or the more than 2,000 VIP addresses that still need to be withdrawn. But VIPs have an information advantage, enough to retain a minimum of caution about the market. This is one of the reasons why it is not advisable to be blindly optimistic about the market at the moment, even if it is bullish.
We can see this in the change of addresses on the chain. The number of BTC non-zero addresses has been growing throughout the bear market. A significant rate of growth occurred after FTX triggered the crash. Compare the graph below, and you can see that the rapid growth is in addresses with positions less than 10 BTC. 100+ VIP addresses are flat. And addresses with more than 1,000 mega whales have seen a specific decrease. The total share of the top 100 addresses fell to 14.7% from 15.7% at the end of September, meaning about 190,000 BTC flowed out of the giant whale account. At the same time, the number of addresses more significant than 1 increased by about 70,000. The number of addresses more extensive than 10 increased by about 5,000.
qr61.cn/ohvxTJ/qpcCUTt
So this round of bears' increased holdings of BTC does not have undeniable characteristics of the primary behavior for the time being. The chips are continuously dispersed: holdings of 1-10 coins, 10-100, and 1000-1000 addresses. The coin holdings' percentage is around 20%, with a combined total of over 60%. In addition to VIPs, the middle class has become a significant participant group in Bitcoin. At the same time, the number of addresses holding BTC immobilized for the long term is continuing to increase. Tokens held for more than one year now account for more than 60% of BTC's market cap, returning to pre-bull market levels and hitting new all-time highs.
Overall, we can handle whether there is a future for BTC subsequently. A large number of tokens are already in a locked state. It is still relatively easy to pull up. The previous article also mentioned the role of BTC as a reservoir. And BTC can influence the whole market. So the probability is that there will be a bull market along with the next round of global central bank easing.
qr61.cn/o0Vbwm/qcVNtDe
The beauty of the point is that addresses holding more than 1000 coins have always been representatives of BTC smart money. We can see that after the 2018 crash and throughout the last round, the number of addresses in this segment continued to increase. After that, it started to decrease on May 21. The operation rhythm throughout the bull market was well managed, but it has just returned to the uptrend today. This reflects the cautious mood of some VIPs. The destructive influence of FTX makes it hold vast amounts of wealth. The mega-wealthy group, whose risk appetite is relatively not that great, has become more cautious in investing in the crypto market. Even if the withdrawn mega whales are only a few hundred, the number is not much compared to the more than 40 million coin-holding addresses in Bitcoin or the more than 2,000 VIP addresses that still need to be withdrawn. But VIPs have an information advantage, enough to retain a minimum of caution about the market. This is one of the reasons why it is not advisable to be blindly optimistic about the market at the moment, even if it is bullish.