Regera

XRP diamond bottom reversal

Long
BINANCE:XRPUSDT   XRP / TetherUS
XRP has formed a near text book diamond bottom reversal. Price moves within a diamond formation inside of supports and resistances for up to 6 months (we’re a little over at ~222 days) as volume declines towards the end of the formation before it breaks out. 87% of the time when price breaks outside of the formation it moves 15% - 35% higher. Currently price has broken through the diamond formation, moved above the daily 50MA and is about to test the bottom diamond support line in the next day or two. Technicals favor a move upwards however BTC is still indecisive about what it is going to do next. When BTC reversed off of the 3 year down trend resistance it didn’t sell off further which showed tremendous strength considering the significance of that trend line . XRP has decoupled from BTC in the past but not recently so to be on the safe side I placed a tight stop loss below the daily 50MA and diamond bottom baseline support and will move it up every day accordingly.

The first major resistance that XRP is going to face is the trend line resistance (red) which happens to coincide with the weekly 50MA. This will be my target for selloff (~15% to 20% ROI ).

I am going to post my XRP/ BTC chart shortly and explain how that ties into this chart.
Comment:
XRP/BTC is in a falling wedge formation (green) which suggests a reversal is imminent. However there’s a max of ~13% this pairing can decline before the pattern fails. Target to the top of the wedge is ~15% which falls right in line with the bottom of the XRP/USDT diamond bottom target zone (assuming BTC price stays the same). If XRP/BTC breaks out of the wedge and hits the orange trend line that’s a ~38% ROI which also falls in line with the top of the diamond bottom target zone (assuming BTC price stays the same). I don’t chart many ALT/BTC pairings because I’ve seen them break the rules too much but when the numbers line up so well with the USDT chart then I tend to give it more credibility.

In keeping with the falling wedge formation I expect XRP to do any of the following:

BTC goes up 13%, XRP/BTC drops 13% and the XRP/USDT price stays flat.

BTC goes down, XRP/BTC drops 13% and the XRP/USDT price plummets (why I use a tight stop loss).

BTC stays the same and XRP/USDT increases 15% - 38%.

BTC goes up and XRP/USDT increases whatever BTC increases + 15% to 38%.
Trade closed: stop reached:
BTC dropped and took XRP with it. Stop loss triggered for ~1% loss. I'll reenter when it hits the reentry zone or break back above the daily 50MA / diamond bottom support.
Comment: Someone PM-ed me a good question and I'll answer it here for everyone to see: did the pattern fail? The answer is no. When the price moves below the diamond bottom resistance line (the line I put the green diagonal reentry zone on) then the pattern fails. I put a very tight stop loss on it because if BTC drops like a rock typically so does everything else and I want my capital back for a lower reentry. If XRP flirts above and below the 50MA / diamond bottom support line I'm fine with taking a 1% hit several times because the reward:risk ratio is very healthy with this trade. Even if my stop loss triggers 4 or 5 times that's still a 3:1 to 7:1 reward:risk ratio if price hits the target.

Comments

I agree with your TA, but the fact that XRP circulation supply is 44 Billion tokens and a max limit of100 billion tokens, which is ridiculous because this coin is not mineable and those coins are released strait to the founders, and the fact that it has nothing to do with Ripple as a company, says a lot about this coin. I think that your TA might fulfill but just because PUMP and FOMO, but new highs might never fulfill.
+1 Reply
Regera TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, One thing I learned about trading alts is that the charts and technical analysis matters more than the token and its fundamentals. There's countless shitcoins out there that aren't worth anything close to what they trade for yet they get pumped and dumped like everything else. The purpose of this trade is to make between 15% - 35% then move onto the next thing. XRP has been suppressed throughout the Coronavirus recovery and is due for a pump.

I understand the point you are making and for those same reasons (among others) I dumped my XRP long term holdings months ago. That doesn't mean XRP couldn't goto $1 or $5 in the future. I simply don't think it's worth hanging onto over the long term because would rather reallocate that capital for other trades that I believe will be more profitable over the short and mid term, assuming XRP actually hits those prices.
+2 Reply
@Regera, ok, I agree, there are hundreds of coins even without a developer team or a proper website and some of them are doing better than coins with teams and capital funds. Like you said: better just use TA for some %15-%35 gain
+1 Reply
Regera TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, Yes and the difference with XRP and other top volume cryptos is that I can liquidate my entire position and take maybe a 0.1% to 0.2% hit on slippage whereas if I put the same amount of capital in a low volume shitcoin I'd literally clear the order book.
+1 Reply
@Regera, HAHA! true, happened to me once with a shitcoin, I didn't look at the volume and I created a nice green candle. Anyway... it is interesting to see whats gonna happen with Bitcoin and the Tether PUMP, how long Tether is going to last as a company before the government takes them down. That day bitcoin probably will be launch to the moon since most people will be moving to BTC and shitcoins, or maybe not.
Reply
Regera TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, When crypto winter comes I'm moving all my USDT to BUSD or some audited equivalent. Definitely not putting it into any tokens because they'll all be in the toilet if Tether gets exposed.
+1 Reply
ttk100 TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, I thought so too. Tings are changing there though. And XRP has of course to do with Ripple. They start using the xrp protocol apparently to transfer within the company and help banks (before sth like xrapid or similar.) I dont like ripple and yet things are changing. It seemed to be the perfect opportunity for banks to keep their power. xrp appears to be one of the fastest systems. There is only one more that is waaaaaaay more dangerous: Tether. They print and print and buy Bitcoin. And they can print endlessly!!!
+1 Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out