Preface:
At the moment, bitcoin’s market structure does not confirm a downtrend or a correction. Regardless, a correction will come; they always do.
Correction Depth:
In 2023, we had three corrections. These corrections ranged from 20% to 23%. I don’t see a reason why this correction should be deeper. On the contrary, with the Bitcoin halving approaching and the ETFs on the horizon, I think a correction, if and when it comes, could be shallower than the previous ones.
Correction Length:
In 2023, the first correction was short and sharp; it lasted 19 days. The other two corrections lasted 60 days each.
What Makes a Support Level Hold?
A support level is most substantial when it has some additional confluence. For example, a diagonal trendline, such as a Gann angle, intersects with a horizontal level. Another example is a horizontal support level coupled with an RSI oversold reading. Demand zones are another possibility. EMAs could also serve as support or add confluence to another support level. The longer EMAS include the 100D (yellow) & 200D (green) EMAs. The more confluence, the better
Bitcoin Support levels from the high to low:
1. 41.38K Gann angle. It's not likely to hold if this is a Mid-cycle correction.
2. 40.5K Range low. The range low is also not likely to hold if this is a mid-cycle correction.
3. 38.5K Previous Range high. This level has a decent chance to hold. Not too bad for DCA.
4 35.6K Previous Range low. This level is more than 20% off the top.
5. 33K January 2022 redistribution range low. If the price gets there, it’s rock solid, in my opinion.
6. 31.8: S/R level & Gann Angle.
7. Below 31.8. If Bitcoin gets below 31.8, I’ll have to call McDonald’s to see if there is an open position. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
Possible Course of Action:
Build a spot Position, DCA. Begin with a small position at the range low (no.2) and increase your position size as the price goes lower. The drawback is that you are taking a risk by buying an asset as it is losing value. Personally, I am confident that we are on the verge of a bull market, but everything is possible. DCA is only for those with a strong conviction about Bitcoin.
At the moment, bitcoin’s market structure does not confirm a downtrend or a correction. Regardless, a correction will come; they always do.
Correction Depth:
In 2023, we had three corrections. These corrections ranged from 20% to 23%. I don’t see a reason why this correction should be deeper. On the contrary, with the Bitcoin halving approaching and the ETFs on the horizon, I think a correction, if and when it comes, could be shallower than the previous ones.
In 2023, the first correction was short and sharp; it lasted 19 days. The other two corrections lasted 60 days each.
A support level is most substantial when it has some additional confluence. For example, a diagonal trendline, such as a Gann angle, intersects with a horizontal level. Another example is a horizontal support level coupled with an RSI oversold reading. Demand zones are another possibility. EMAs could also serve as support or add confluence to another support level. The longer EMAS include the 100D (yellow) & 200D (green) EMAs. The more confluence, the better
Bitcoin Support levels from the high to low:
1. 41.38K Gann angle. It's not likely to hold if this is a Mid-cycle correction.
2. 40.5K Range low. The range low is also not likely to hold if this is a mid-cycle correction.
3. 38.5K Previous Range high. This level has a decent chance to hold. Not too bad for DCA.
4 35.6K Previous Range low. This level is more than 20% off the top.
5. 33K January 2022 redistribution range low. If the price gets there, it’s rock solid, in my opinion.
6. 31.8: S/R level & Gann Angle.
7. Below 31.8. If Bitcoin gets below 31.8, I’ll have to call McDonald’s to see if there is an open position. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
Possible Course of Action:
Build a spot Position, DCA. Begin with a small position at the range low (no.2) and increase your position size as the price goes lower. The drawback is that you are taking a risk by buying an asset as it is losing value. Personally, I am confident that we are on the verge of a bull market, but everything is possible. DCA is only for those with a strong conviction about Bitcoin.
