BTC - Mixed Signals Have Me Guessing! What's Your Take?

Hey everyone! Looking at today's 4-HR chart for Bitcoin, here's what I see. After today's $700 pump, most people are very bullish. However, part of me is leaning the other way and I'll tell you why. I quickly take notice to the dominance the MA100 has had on the price action since February. Four times we have tried to break it since falling underneath it and every time we have been rejected (including today). This is our first obstacle. Next is the orange trend right behind the MA100 which has also been playing defense, knocking down the last 2 big BTC pumps. It will be interesting to see how the price action unfolds. The further the retrace from today's pump seems to make a stronger case for the bears than the bulls. The MACD is also showing bearish divergence as we made a lower high in the price, but the higher high on the indicator. My concern for the bearish scenario is that it could be very bearish. It could set up a head and shoulders within the orange descending triangle, which could take us even lower to below $4400.

However, there are bullish indicators out there. We can't say today's big jump is bearish. We do have a bullish looking MACD curving above the zero line with a near cross on the signal. Price action is moving with the ascending triangle, so as long as the support holds, the bulls will take it. But when I weigh the evidence, I lean toward the bears.

What's your take? Can you make a stronger case for the bulls that I am missing? Or do you think the bears will crush the bulls and push us lower? Let's see if we can solve this riddle and make some $$$ (especially for all those crypto-believers who are not working due to COVID-19).

Happy Trading and be safe!

Comment:

Careful. Possible repeating fractal here.