Though, I've been analyzing Bitcoin -2.33% for months now, I've spent the past few days diligently analyzing Bitcoin -2.33% on the long-term scale. I think I've come down with the proper wave count, but it includes analyzation through Bitfinex, since that has some of the oldest charting records.
So what I've come to is that Bitcoin -2.33% is actually nearing the end of this correction. On the short-term scale I've been able to crack down on the movements and areas of support, and on the long-term scale I've been able to locate long-term support lines.
Notice where we've just recently stopped at, that long-term blue support line. This is where we form our channel for our next upwards progression. Sorry guys, but I don't think we'll be seeing any crazy growth with Bitcoin -2.33% like we did from September to December for a while.
So let's talk about this correction. I went through many different possibilities of what this correction was, and I think i've come down to the most logical, and likely correction based off of a historical wave count that could verify what this would look like. For my older followers, remember when I predicted the fall ("Bitcoin's Last Stretch") but I was wondering why we never got that 5th wave? Well, that's because it was an expanded flat correction. Where our B wave extended past our wave 5. It left us with an motive wave. Similar to the Dow Jones in 1961-1962. That expanded flat was a repeated trend between the dot com bubble and the great recession between 1999 and 2008. And I think that we may see something similar to that with Bitcoin -2.33% later in the future (will be covered on my next long-term post)
That expanded then lead us to our WXY pattern to $8770. Now, is the correction over? MAYBE! And I don't necessarily think we will go down to 7.8-8k, even though it is possible! On the shorter-time frame I will still cover what is going on on my other most-recent Bitcoin -2.33% post, because it is still likely that we get the dead cat bounce to finish this off. But it's possible that what happens next could either be a wave 1 impulse or a continuation of a WXYXZ correction as shown on the chart.
Now, let's talk about targets!
Target 1: $12,852 or above
With this target, not only are we targeting this top-line resistance, but there is a lot of activity at this level. Whether it was a level of support or resistance, people had trouble at a 12.5k-14k valuation. So even if it is a continuation of this correction or an impulse wave, I expect us to get rejected there and fall back down. Wave 1 is where I will definitely make a market exit! From that point it is critical to watch how the correction goes. It could retrace the full length to complete the WXYXZ OR it could retrace half way for wave 2, we MUST be careful and patient IF/when that happens.
Target 2: $15,457 or above
If wave 1 is impulsive, then wave 3 may draw out for a long time through this channel. It will be a long slow ride, SO people may have a hard time recognizing when it starts (that makes recognizing wave 2 even harder).
Target 3: $18,124 - $20,076
There is a possibility that we get a throw-over 5th wave that causes us to reach the $20k target, this would also indicate a direct (or ends of a ) that shows rejection to a higher degree, causing a wave 2 consolidation to be more dramatic.
My time frame on this is around June. I think these next impulse waves take their time. People to confuse them for corrective waves because we never truly break the ATH 2.29% . Trust me guys, you don't want this 5th wave to be fast. As I continue to work on my next post, it will show you all why that is so. This analysis also coincides with the one of my friend, Regalia! Which has been 100%
Alright guys. It looks like these are impulse waves!! But we have a full rules to follow first.
1) We need to maintain that critical support.
That's the only rule. Anyways, the very short term target (on this 5 minute scale) is $8100, and then we hope for a correction to a normal fib level.
Things to keep in mind:
1) Big Target 1 may not be hit due to the lower drop than expect, but this doesn't mean that our 18k target is out.
2) We've counted the bottom of the correction, but that doesn't mean that we cannot get failed breakouts, causing an extended WXYXZ correction.
3) All indicators are showing this to be a historical point of bullish development, but it doesn't mean that a new trend cant start.
A LOT of analysis have gotten this correction process wrong, including myself. Why? Cause its freaking hard, dude. I've mentioned on nearly every post that corrections are things that you look back on and see what happened, rather than predict it exactly. You can only get so much precisely right during a corrective phase. Notice how much I've changed my analysis on this crazy SOB. You have to adapt to what you are given. I come from the mindset of a trader. Each day is a new day for new opportunity and development. We take it one step at a time. But what I can say for the long term holders is that $6k MIGHT have been the bottom. We'll continue to watch for failed breakouts along the way.
I've seen a lot of analysis call for as low $4800. Let's look at this trend line support. The bottom white line. We still have not breached that line, and I don't think we will. BUT, let's say we do. How low can we go? Well, my lowest point is $5000. Why? Because thats the top of wave 1, and wave 4 cannot retrace that point. IF this wave count is correct, then It cannot cross that point. If it does cross that point, then my wave count is likely to be wrong, and I'll have to re-analyze the situation to find the next best possible count.
Another note: I saw an analyst show a picture of how each Bitcoin peak was 10 times larger than the previous. It is possible that we can get to $200k on this 5th wave? Sure. Will it happen? Probably not. Because the 3rd wave was extended, it's possible this 5th wave could be extended as well. So we always have to keep ideas and our minds open. But to me, even reaching $100k by next year seems unlikely to me.
Here is actually a bull scenario that we could see if Bitcoin rallies. Because that was an expanding wedge, it could validate as a 5 wave leading diagonal for our wave 3. If we start to see impulse waves here. We could head up to the next target.
Remember, a lot of analysts are still bearish, when everyone agrees on something, it usually doesn't happen. This could be the opportunity for a bull rally.