EW count, $19000 before the healthy correction
This is the 6 hours time frame which is becoming the most important and crucial time frame to watch on swing trading purpose. Bitcoin has shown a huge gain since a few weeks ago, price has shown us a bullish rally from the consolidation level of $12000 ish to the 2020 high of $18000 ish which is a phenomenal 63% gain in less than one month. However, during the huge rally there will be a consequences that we need to be cautious of, A correction. Correction has always been a part of major trend either on the bullish side or on the bearish side. On every major trend, we need a correction wave to represent that the major trend is not a part of manipulation.
The most useful weapon to identifying correction is by counting the Elliot wave structure of the impulse wave. Here is my EW count on the potential sub wave 3 in the grand cycle. Based on my count, I do believe that this 3rd wave on the grand cycle is moving so parabolic, that's why the 5th wave usually extends a little bit more than the wave 1 as the leading wave. If I assume the extended sub wave 5 of this 3rd wave structure, the white region can be a good place to stack your short position. It's very essential to watch at the current price action to identify the possible top on this sub wave 5.
From RSI, still we don't see any sign of the significant movement except the lower high structure which indicates the bearish divergence for reversal. When the 5 wave structure ends, we'll see further correction to potential of .382 fibonacci retracement level but, $24000 region is still there waiting us.
The most useful weapon to identifying correction is by counting the Elliot wave structure of the impulse wave. Here is my EW count on the potential sub wave 3 in the grand cycle. Based on my count, I do believe that this 3rd wave on the grand cycle is moving so parabolic, that's why the 5th wave usually extends a little bit more than the wave 1 as the leading wave. If I assume the extended sub wave 5 of this 3rd wave structure, the white region can be a good place to stack your short position. It's very essential to watch at the current price action to identify the possible top on this sub wave 5.
From RSI, still we don't see any sign of the significant movement except the lower high structure which indicates the bearish divergence for reversal. When the 5 wave structure ends, we'll see further correction to potential of .382 fibonacci retracement level but, $24000 region is still there waiting us.
This is the 12 hours chart which we can see the movement and bias on the higher time frame and can be considered as the bigger cycle and it will be very useful to look for any chance for opening any position in intraday level.
My yesterday's EW labelling is still valid as well which I've anticipated the $19000 region as the possible strong resistance. At the last few hours, we've seen a huge gain on the Bitcoin's price which it has broken the $18500 region as the minor resistance and the interim swing high. With this kind of price action, it's once again proves that the price is having a much stronger momentum that the previous cycle.
Based on my EW count, the $19000 could be the top of this wave 3 based on the grand cycle, that's why I'll expect some sort of correction to minimum at $17000 region and could be extended to $15500 region if the 4th wave confirm the zig zag pattern.
On the mid term, expecting a correction, while on the longer term, I still see the $24000 region as the ideal target before the year end.