Bitcoin : A perspective of the consolidation
In this current analysis I'll try to cover the movement on the short and mid term for bitcoin. I'm using the 4 hours chart which is the medium cycle time frame and can cover the movement in the short and mid term. The fibonacci retracement level drawn on the chart is referring to the previous EW count which I've already anticipated on the previous time frame as the wave 3 on the grand cycle. On the other hand, I use the wave 1 and the bottom of wave 2 on the grand cycle to draw the fibonacci extension projection.
At current rate, we can't deny that the price is trending right around the strong resistance level of $18950 region as it's the 1.1 fibonacci extension level based on the previous leading wave and its correction. Proving once again that the deduction is correct, the price is now moving ranging at around this level which in my opinion, it forms a contracting triangle as the indecision part. I look at this as the normal behavior as most of the traders want to see the reaction of the price at this rate. Whether it's going to break out of this triangle or even to melt lower. The RSI is showing us that the price is losing some strength as it enters the neutral zone between 40 - 60 as well. Together with the RSI, the MACD itself is looking no different with the histogram is still trending at the negative side but the price action hasn't claimed lower. These all condition however is indicating that the price is slowly losing its volatility and this triangle can be a valid pattern in the future as the price must comes closer to the APEX.
However, there are 2 scenarios we need to watch for bitcoin right now. First scenario is that when we see a resistance trend line break out which will lead the price to the 1.382 fibonacci extension range (around $22000). On the other hand, the 2nd scenario which is more bearish will be confirmed if we see any action of support trend line break out and lead the price to the blue region which is the .382 fibonacci retracement level (around $15500).
At current rate, we can't deny that the price is trending right around the strong resistance level of $18950 region as it's the 1.1 fibonacci extension level based on the previous leading wave and its correction. Proving once again that the deduction is correct, the price is now moving ranging at around this level which in my opinion, it forms a contracting triangle as the indecision part. I look at this as the normal behavior as most of the traders want to see the reaction of the price at this rate. Whether it's going to break out of this triangle or even to melt lower. The RSI is showing us that the price is losing some strength as it enters the neutral zone between 40 - 60 as well. Together with the RSI, the MACD itself is looking no different with the histogram is still trending at the negative side but the price action hasn't claimed lower. These all condition however is indicating that the price is slowly losing its volatility and this triangle can be a valid pattern in the future as the price must comes closer to the APEX.
However, there are 2 scenarios we need to watch for bitcoin right now. First scenario is that when we see a resistance trend line break out which will lead the price to the 1.382 fibonacci extension range (around $22000). On the other hand, the 2nd scenario which is more bearish will be confirmed if we see any action of support trend line break out and lead the price to the blue region which is the .382 fibonacci retracement level (around $15500).
