(Part 3) About periods of great volatility...
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(USDT 1D chart)
I think we need to check further to see if it starts to come out at the previous candle size.
If it has been converted to the previous candle size, you need to check whether there is movement when the gap occurs.
When that happens, the period of profit realization and day trading is expected to end.
I think what we expect to see next is a period of great volatility.
(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
A period of great volatility is expected to begin with an upward movement below the 21258.0-23174.39 range or above the 29241.72-30767.38 range.
Since this period of volatility is a time when trends appear, I believe that movement in one direction will shake the market.
1. Period of great volatility rising above 29241.72-30767.38
This move is expected to mark the last bull run of the year.
Accordingly, there is a possibility of shaking the market by saying that there will be a huge rise, so caution is needed when trading.
Currently, the maximum expected rise is around 45K.
At this time, the important thing is that the trend may change depending on whether it is supported or resisted around 38.5K.
2. Period of great volatility falling below 21258.0-23174.39
This move is expected to further freeze the market as the coin market is said to be over.
Currently, the maximum expected decline range is 16K-17K.
After a period of great volatility, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin.
This full-fledged upward trend can be said to be an upward trend for next year's BTC Halving.
Therefore, if a trend like number 1 above occurs, the increase in a full-fledged upward trend may be smaller than expected.
In any case, the final stage of a period of high volatility is expected to create a pull back pattern.
In cases like number 1 above, it is easy to recognize the pull back pattern, but in cases like number 2, it will not be easy to recognize.
Because, in a downtrend, it leads to a bigger downturn.
This is because this pattern is not actually a pull back pattern, but a move equivalent to a fake.
Therefore, a pattern will emerge that will cause individual traders to liquidate most of their holdings.
Therefore, we need a trading strategy to survive these patterns.
The trading strategy requires a trading method that increases the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits while lowering the proportion of your holdings.
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- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
Hello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(USDT 1D chart)
If it has been converted to the previous candle size, you need to check whether there is movement when the gap occurs.
When that happens, the period of profit realization and day trading is expected to end.
I think what we expect to see next is a period of great volatility.
(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
Since this period of volatility is a time when trends appear, I believe that movement in one direction will shake the market.
1. Period of great volatility rising above 29241.72-30767.38
This move is expected to mark the last bull run of the year.
Accordingly, there is a possibility of shaking the market by saying that there will be a huge rise, so caution is needed when trading.
Currently, the maximum expected rise is around 45K.
At this time, the important thing is that the trend may change depending on whether it is supported or resisted around 38.5K.
2. Period of great volatility falling below 21258.0-23174.39
This move is expected to further freeze the market as the coin market is said to be over.
Currently, the maximum expected decline range is 16K-17K.
After a period of great volatility, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin.
This full-fledged upward trend can be said to be an upward trend for next year's BTC Halving.
Therefore, if a trend like number 1 above occurs, the increase in a full-fledged upward trend may be smaller than expected.
In any case, the final stage of a period of high volatility is expected to create a pull back pattern.
In cases like number 1 above, it is easy to recognize the pull back pattern, but in cases like number 2, it will not be easy to recognize.
Because, in a downtrend, it leads to a bigger downturn.
This is because this pattern is not actually a pull back pattern, but a move equivalent to a fake.
Therefore, a pattern will emerge that will cause individual traders to liquidate most of their holdings.
Therefore, we need a trading strategy to survive these patterns.
The trading strategy requires a trading method that increases the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits while lowering the proportion of your holdings.
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
Comment:
Usually, when we draw a trend line, it is common to draw it like number 1 or number 2.
These trend lines are lines that anyone who has studied charts at all, whether drawn or not, can think of.
What can we learn from this trend line?
If you think about it a little, you can see that this trend line is a meaningless trend line.
How do you feel?
Isn’t it just a flow that can be seen even without a trend line?
So, I think that no matter how well you draw a trend line, when you eventually start trading, you often end up not creating a trading strategy according to this trend line or not giving it any meaning.
What do you think of this trend line?
Doesn’t it look a little different from the trend line you normally draw?
Yes, that's right.
This trend line connects the vertices where there is a trend change in the overbought or oversold section of the StochRSI indicator.
Therefore, this trend line is a line connecting the points where changes in the intensity of the rise or fall have occurred.
Deviating from this trend line means that there is a high possibility of creating a new wave, which means that its power is different from before.
A general trend line is a trend line that can always be seen with the naked eye even if it is not drawn.
Now, it would be a good idea to use more reliable information to break away from these trend lines and draw a trend line that can be used in actual trading to create a trading strategy.
The settings for the StochRSI indicator were RSI, Stoch, K, D (14, 7, 3, 3).
However, because the source value is Heikin Ashi's close rather than the general close, there may be differences in the trend line in other charts.
When connecting the vertices of the overbought section, connect the openings of the downward candles.
Accordingly, if the candle corresponding to the vertex is not a downward candle, the downward candle on the right is used.
When connecting the vertices of an oversold section, the low points of the candles are connected.
In order to understand my chart, it is helpful to know how the trend line is drawn.
This trend line is important because it establishes a period of volatility.
These trend lines are lines that anyone who has studied charts at all, whether drawn or not, can think of.
What can we learn from this trend line?
If you think about it a little, you can see that this trend line is a meaningless trend line.
Isn’t it just a flow that can be seen even without a trend line?
So, I think that no matter how well you draw a trend line, when you eventually start trading, you often end up not creating a trading strategy according to this trend line or not giving it any meaning.
Doesn’t it look a little different from the trend line you normally draw?
This trend line connects the vertices where there is a trend change in the overbought or oversold section of the StochRSI indicator.
Therefore, this trend line is a line connecting the points where changes in the intensity of the rise or fall have occurred.
Deviating from this trend line means that there is a high possibility of creating a new wave, which means that its power is different from before.
A general trend line is a trend line that can always be seen with the naked eye even if it is not drawn.
Now, it would be a good idea to use more reliable information to break away from these trend lines and draw a trend line that can be used in actual trading to create a trading strategy.
The settings for the StochRSI indicator were RSI, Stoch, K, D (14, 7, 3, 3).
However, because the source value is Heikin Ashi's close rather than the general close, there may be differences in the trend line in other charts.
When connecting the vertices of the overbought section, connect the openings of the downward candles.
Accordingly, if the candle corresponding to the vertex is not a downward candle, the downward candle on the right is used.
When connecting the vertices of an oversold section, the low points of the candles are connected.
In order to understand my chart, it is helpful to know how the trend line is drawn.
This trend line is important because it establishes a period of volatility.
Comment:
(USDT 1D chart)
As the gap rises, a long lower tail is created.
When a gap occurs, it means that funds have moved.
Therefore, I believe that the rise in the gap is evidence that funds have flowed into the coin market.
If the body of the candle remains at its previous size, the coin market will eventually show an upward trend.
Price movements are important, but more important than that is the movement of funds.
It's good to believe in the power of money.
(USDC 1D chart)
I think USDC is a fund that shows the collusive(?) relationship between the coin market and the stock market.
Accordingly, if the USDC gap rises and turns into an upward trend, stock investment products released as coins will show movements similar to the stock market flow.
Therefore, I think that when USDC rises, there is a high possibility of a movement coupled with the stock market, and when it falls, there is a high possibility of a decoupled movement.
Therefore, if this rise is maintained, there is a high possibility that the coin market will show movements similar to those of the stock market.
The reason I say the same thing over and over again is because I think this change is a very significant movement.
When a gap occurs, it means that funds have moved.
Therefore, I believe that the rise in the gap is evidence that funds have flowed into the coin market.
If the body of the candle remains at its previous size, the coin market will eventually show an upward trend.
Price movements are important, but more important than that is the movement of funds.
It's good to believe in the power of money.
(USDC 1D chart)
Accordingly, if the USDC gap rises and turns into an upward trend, stock investment products released as coins will show movements similar to the stock market flow.
Therefore, I think that when USDC rises, there is a high possibility of a movement coupled with the stock market, and when it falls, there is a high possibility of a decoupled movement.
Therefore, if this rise is maintained, there is a high possibility that the coin market will show movements similar to those of the stock market.
The reason I say the same thing over and over again is because I think this change is a very significant movement.
[Example of exchange chart setup]
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
Therefore, there is a high possibility that the flow corresponding to number 1 of the content mentioned above will occur.
However, since the Market Cap chart tends to take 1 to 3 days to create an accurate chart, you need to monitor the situation a little more.