BTCUSDT
Wyckoff PnF (Point and Figure) chart calculation (1 box reversal, $400/box) for the previous Distribution that completed on Dec 3rd, provides drop target of -12000. This is almost EXACTLY how low the price dropped out of that Distribution. I'd say that pretty much exhausts the Cause built up in the previous Distribution, so I am assuming that the drop is complete now.
The big question now is whether the TR we are seeing is Re-Distribution, or Accumulation?
To me, it's currently looking more like a Re-Distribution. Here's why:
1) Volume at Support is actually expanding as the TR matures
2) Upthrusts are happening on increasing volume, suggesting that the prices are rising into a lot of Supply.
3) Price spread on the upthrusts is getting more compressed the closer we get to the top of the rally, suggesting that the C.O. is dumping a lot of Supply into the uptrend, selling at the highest price they can.
4) Price spread and volume both increase on the declines, so we have very quick, aggressive drops as C.O is offloading.
5) The price action at Support suggests that we are not looking at absorption of Supply. If it was, we'd see very low volume rallies, which is what happens when more and more Supply gets absorbed. This is not the case here - the rallies are clearly requiring quite a bit of "sponsorship" based on the huge volume spikes.
Assuming we are looking at Re-Distribution, the current PnF target suggests that we have enough Cause already built up to drop by -7500, which takes us to 41.9k.
Does this make sense to all of you Wyckoffians out there?