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BULL-BEAR-ACUMULATION IN THE MARKETS AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS /BTC

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BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
BULL-BEAR-ACUMULATION PERIODS IN THE MARKETS and INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF CRYPTO MARKET

These phases follow each other, although their duration is different. In this way, cycles are formed. Bitcoin has been following a 4-year halving cycle since 2008. 4 years constitute a cycle. Within 4 years, bull-bear-accumulation processes take place.

As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will always continue. There will always be new winners and losers. This is the purpose of the stock market.

For success: Firstly, you need to understand what the stock market is, its structure and periods. You should know that the falls and exits will end somewhere, you should know the trends.
The crypto market is still the most risky market in the world. We all know that the losses are very big as well as the gains. People who cannot take this risk should not be in this market.

I will also add parts of my old articles where relevant.


ACCUMULATION (IN SHORT, TRANSITION PERIOD, MATURATION OR COMMODITY ACCUMULATION ZONE)

A dull, no-earnings zone for new traders, following the sharp declines in the bear period and partly in the form of a more horizontal saw.
For large investors, it is the pre-bullish period, when they gather goods at low prices without making much difference to the market. Depending on the internal dynamics of the market, this period may be longer or shorter than the bear
Disbelief and suckers rally periods on Wall street cheet.
It is the region where most small investors fall out of the game and get the last slap. There is an intense flow of bad news in this region. Those who do not know much about the market get fed up with them. In this period, which is already horizontal and unprofitable, a lot of shaking and reverse movements are made

Those who can overcome this part are now on their way to earnings. Remember, the purpose of this part is to collect your goods cheaply in order to sell them more expensively in the future. So the market does not pity anyone here. Do not expect mercy !!!
The best thing to do in the accumulation zone is this: to be patient and cost as much as possible. At this point, the thought of selling and buying a little lower can lead you to a mistake. You can see this from those who sell around 16-17-18k because it will fall to 10K
When you reach 25k levels, thoughts of whether I missed it, whether it will go from here, whether I should enter will tire you out

Do not try to look for a bottom point. Trend bottoms, turning points can be detected more or less. For example, bitcoin has been falling since $69K. You can say that it is appropriate to cost under 20k

You have the chance to create costs under 20k for about 9 months, a very sufficient time. So far we have seen $ 15.5k as the lowest point. Purchases should have been made at those levels. Will 13 come? What if it comes, what difference will it make?
You're trying to get rich with the $2,000 in between, you can't. The endeavour is pointless.
Also, get to know a little bit about what you are investing in. Do not jump in with gas, with a moment of excitement, just because someone said so. Give importance to past experiences. Too much experience is important in the crypto market.
Did the bull come? You always hear this question. This is a process and I will try to explain this process in my own way.
The bull has started from the red candle at the bottom to the next green candle.
The bull period is actually a sufficient process to make money. But the feeling it leaves in people is that it is very short. Firstly, we want it to last longer, we can't get enough :) secondly, it ends quickly because we join the majority towards the end.
The rise periods of altcoins are relatively shorter than bitcoin. Reasons for this; their historical past is short, many of them are cyclical (trend)
In the most glamorous last periods of the Taurus period, many phenomenal expert analysts emerge. Since their numbers are higher than quality people, the number of people they interact with is also high. New entrants have no chance to make this distinction


In the end, they pay for it with their money. This is the same in Turkey, the USA and Japan. Within some limits (rules), the same situation is the same even in country stock exchanges. Look at the stock market right now, you can already understand directly
It is the inevitable result of an environment where money is made from money. Manipulation, speculation is a must (I am not praising, I am stating the existing situation).

Fast earnings high excitement easy money environment also breeds scammers and victims.
For someone to make money, large groups must lose money.
Usually the big losers are uninformed new investors. In order for the last losers to win, new last comers must enter the market (new cycle).


The bull period is why novices are more courageous and earn more at that stage. Because they have no previous negative experiences and they have started their transactions in a positive environment, everything is rosy
Whatever you put your hand on, it's going up. So the market allows it.
The person who has experienced the bear market for a long time cannot show this courage because he has been burned once. He approaches every project cautiously, does not trust easily. He is overprotective.
His first aim is to protect his money, whether he realises it or not.
It is not easy to get out of the psychology created by prolonged declines. This psychology may continue until the increases are finalised and the bull trend is accepted.

The biggest motivation of the bull period is to lock as many people as possible at peak prices. The bear season is to buy back the goods locked at the lowest prices.
That's why great news comes at the top and the worst destructive news comes at the bottom.
It's infallible. Stock market bankruptcies, sinking coins. Hacking incidents, country bans, delist fury, etc. You have to wait.
If you entered at the end of the bull market and you are going to continue, you have to. But by taking advantage of this wait.
You don't have to learn everything. Even if you learn 2 indicators in great detail is enough. It is difficult to become a master in a short time, experience requires experience, but if you learn to use 2-3 data in the best way, your success will increase. It is not important to win in a month in a week. It is important to be able to earn and protect it in a year or two years. Consider it as investment and savings, not gambling. What needs to be done to win is plain and simple, the difficult thing is to apply them

BEAR
People who enter the market at the tail end of the upturn usually lose, and then spend the prolonged downturn (bear period) in a bad psychological state and move away from the market.
Crowded groups come to the market when the price is at its highest, everyone is talking about the market, advertisements and good news are abundant and enthusiasm is at its peak. This period is the last stages of the rise. There is no one left to enter the market anymore
At first it is not recognised that this is the top.
The decline deepens over time. As the price falls, the new investor starts buying at unsuitable points in order to reduce costs. As the decline period extends, the loss grows.
The belief that it will never rise again increases.

What has happened has happened and the investment has melted. Depression and anger vary according to the loss. Most people leave the market at this point with great loss.
Coins that they have been holding without selling since the peak, usually sell angrily at the bottom levels. Some also lose hope and interest. Because the money has fallen so much that its increase will not mean anything.
Maybe you are saying this right now: I wish I had bought bitcoin at $3000 in the past. When I first entered, I wish I had bought it at $ 100. It wasn't that easy. It was not that day either. In that $ 3000 you said you would have bought, people were sinking and crying blood.
It was as bad that day as it is today. I would even say that 2018 was a worse year than that.
No one can promise you that the market will turn from this or that point
We can make mathematical predictions with all the data we have. Although the idea that it returns from this point and I will make the purchase from there seems appropriate at first, it is an incomplete approach.


Our emotions can be manipulated, but so much technical data, graphics, indicators cannot be manipulated. Read, analyse and try to trade by leaving your emotions aside.
It is difficult for someone who is constantly experiencing losses to think objectively. But somewhere it is necessary to reset the mind and look from the outside. This is what must be done to win.

After all, the money was somehow lost
We'll draw a line in the past and look to the future. From now on, you will think that you are starting from scratch with the money you have left, you will adjust your psychology in this way. Past mistakes will only remain as a lesson.
Especially near the bottom, the number of people who say that there is much lower increases considerably. Because trust has been lost. The investor cannot think without being affected by the market. (As it will go further as it rises, it will go further as it falls).
It is difficult to overcome once you lose and get out of this psychology. Emotions come into play. You can be a prisoner of ambition and anger
Bottom points have to be like this. Old excitements and targets are forgotten.


despair and apathy take over the small investor (us). The 10x 100x's said at the top are replaced one by one by targets lower than the level we are at.
What you see around you right now. Have you ever heard of targets like 12k- 9k- 7.5k last year? At least I didn't hear from anyone when I was over 45k.
The markets we need to examine are not just altcoins and even btc.
past data will be light ahead of us. what I mean by the past, world stock markets. especially nasdaq, dow, dax, nikkei should be examined.
Let's go back to emotions. I see this a lot in the market, there are those who talk about coins with enthusiasm and those who hate coins.


These are inanimate beings, do not approach with hate or love.
Losing from a coin is bad, winning does not make it good. #altcoin
Or the fact that a coin has not increased for a long time does not mean that it will definitely not increase in the future. There is no certainty at this point. Yes, it may be a finished project or it may just be waiting for its time to come.
We stay away from positive or negative certain judgements. Flexibility gives you an advantage.
Now let's see how many days the rise and fall periods lasted between 2009-2023 in btc.
As I mentioned before, there is never innocence in the stock market and making money from money. The market is never free.

"But this time it's different" has been said by every person in every period. And it has always failed. People who have experience in the markets for a long time know this very well. Each period creates its own special conditions. But the result has never changed.
At some point, the market ends its decline and starts its new cycle. With new rises, the bad news is immediately forgotten. The loser loses and the market continues on its way.
The market is never innocent. There is no emotion. There are always winners and losers. It will be the same in the future.


Well, I told so many negative things. Is it so hard to win, does everyone have to lose?
No, my purpose in telling you these things is not for you to despair. You need to know what you are in for and you need to understand the rules of the game.
Certain rules for winning.
There are multiple ways of earning. But not for everyone
-Swing
-Margin (pro)
-Lie down for a long time
-News orientated trade
I do not do margin trading (I do not recommend it to anyone who is not a professional).
I can say that I am a trend follower. I come to the market at the bottom areas, create an average cost, and slowly sell and exit at the top where the hype is experienced. In most of the BTC and total marketcap charts, I show buying and selling points in the long term.
I never try to buy from one place and sell from one point. I know this is futile. I aim to increase the amount of coins I have in the trend by cross trading with each other or with usd.
I am never in a hurry. I know what my goals are. I also leave flexibility to positive and negative extremes. The rest is only a matter of time. I create more than one option for myself so that I do not remain empty-handed in case some possibilities do not materialise.


Remember, making money from Bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult, the profit rate is decreasing, it is becoming more stable. When we examine the old btc movements and structures; while exhibiting simple and relatively more predictable movements,
As time passes, these structures become complex and difficult to predict in the short term.
Also, do not buy coins because no one says so, do not enter the transaction
Know why you do what you do and be aware of the consequences.
These may sound like clichés, but these are the facts.
Words like 50x-100x may sound very attractive to you, but no one is a magician. No one has a secret 100x information. These are things that are put forward to attract attention for interaction.
Of course, there will be coins that will make 100x, but you can't hear them from somewhere by chance.
Finding a coin with 100x potential is only possible with very good fundamental analysis. And it takes a lot of patience to get it.
In the past, many beautiful projects have done such xs. And this business is becoming increasingly difficult.
There are always tips in both the stock market and the crypto market. And most of them are born and spread as a result of speculation.
You can't make sustainable profits on tips. Listen, but don't plan on tips (as in don't believe in fortune telling but don't do without fortune telling)
Stock investment is not a match where every shot is a goal. You don't need to hit every ball. You can be patient and bide your time.
-Warren Buffet
Do not deify anyone in this market. You should get the information you need and move on.
The story starts like this: Too many people are following this person, so if I'm in the market, I might as well listen to them. #btc
#btc I almost don't know anyone in the stock market who doesn't follow someone on social media. Everyone's path is definitely falling.
''The general public has no idea what is going on, and is even unaware that it has no idea." Noam Chomsky. We can definitely use this word for the crypto market.


PSYCHOLOGY
Prices and indicators are not the same for everyone. I mean this; we look at the same chart at the same time and think different things. This is because of the positive and negative experiences of those people.
Seeing the bitcoin chart below 20k, some see it as an opportunity and some see it as a great destruction. The same way that the price below the 200-week average in btc is a great opportunity for some and a fear indicator for others.
If the person is not suitable to understand this, you cannot convince even if you present 10 evidence.

Price movement should not be looked at as a belief, it is mathematics. sooner or later, whatever the target is, it will be realised.
Since prices do not move according to people's feelings, those who are disbelief at the beginning of the bull and overconfident when the trend ends lose.
Your emotions will only mislead you in this market. you have to be a robot.
when buying a coin, remember this: you should do good technical and fundamental analysis. you should calculate not only cost but also time.
Why did you buy that coin? I don't know, he said, he said buy it, so I bought it, it fell. I couldn't sell it.
There can be no gain in this way. At least from your point of view =)
In this market, luck laughs at you very little. Everything else is knowledge, experience + patience.


NEWS

Sometimes news is also used when the time comes to change the direction of movement.
For sharp turns and sudden price increases, it is necessary to give people big news to talk about.
Sudden drops and exits without a reason cause the system to be questioned and undermine confidence for no reason. But if people believe in a reason, the game continues.
In other words, if people can make sense of the stake, there is no problem for the market maker.
People want to hear something. The media is ready there immediately. Why it fell: this and that happened, that's why it fell. Most of the time it's not even relevant.
The mainstream media never talks about the facts, what is going on behind the scenes, technical analysis, things that are useful for us.

At the lows, bad news is pumped in to discourage you even more, and at the peaks, good news is pumped in to attract more new investors and to lock up goods from the top.
This is how the market is managed by media power.
Paris hilton's laser eye, then it turned into a trend.
harry potter author tweeting about btc.
Elon musk-tesla
Elon-doge
Celebrities suddenly becoming bitcoiners and sharing it on the internet
Look at BTC trend analyses on Google, how similar the charts are!
Remember, the stock market is not just an investment. It is a kind of struggle to make money. The crypto market is literally a stock market. In fact, according to me, it is the most difficult stock exchange in the world. There are no prohibitive rules for those who want to take your money from your hands.
No one pities you. They take your money without seeing and recognising you. -Who can't win in the bullfight.
Those who hurry too much in profit
those who enter pump-dump organisations from the top
Those who say that they can't go and constantly change coins and miss what they have
Those who tie all their money to a coin
Those buried in more altcoins than they can manage
Those who are constantly chasing signals left and right, waiting for tips from fake masters they do not know in paid private groups.

Those who consume all their money in scams while chasing gem.
In addition, those who cannot take risks, very stressful and cowardly investment, those who drown in detail cannot win (or win little) in the bull.
Those who do not take adequate precautions in security and are hacked.

That's all for now.
Thank you.

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