My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If $6,500 does not become resistance then expect the sideways action to continue for a few more days/weeks."
The 4h TD Sequential just had a red 8 and the 12h is on a red 9. Those both indicate that we should bounce through $6,500 before continuing the move downward.” / Short BTC:USD from $6,474 and short ETH:USD from $225.20.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,571 | S: $6,525
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found resistance at 32,647, watching for or higher low.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0238%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Price attempting to break through both. If it does with conviction then we should get a crossover.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 is currently trying to resist price, watch for close below | 128: -3.07%
Volume: Instead of watching for a spike in it might be best to pay attention to a significant dip in . A super squeeze like this should be accompanied by an all time low in prior to breakout. That would indicate that
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
analysis: Bouncing off daily | 4h dojis and indicate upcoming reversal. Currently re exploring wick on 12h.
Cloud: Top of 1h cloud = $6,565 | Had five candles close above a cloud, current candle is re entering | Briefly broke into 12h cloud but failed to close inside of it.
TD’ Sequential: 1d: R4 | 4h: G8
Visible Range: Trying to break out of highest liquidity area over the past year, but does not appear to have the legs.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.1% | 24h: +1.82% | 1w: -1.49% | 2w: -2.52% | 1m: -9.21%
Bands: Top band = $6,800 | MA = $6,547 | If close below MA then should quickly reverse to the downside
Trendline: Have drawn multiple . The top two represent the top of the (red). The bottom (green) represents the key area of support. The red dotted line represents the first/weakest area of trend resistance.
Fractals: Up at $6,674 remains in tact. Should form a new down at $6,428
On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s triangle on the .
ADX: Indicates upcoming
Chaikin Money Flow: Daily and weekly are in overbought zones.
(30 setting): Watching for divergence on lower time frames
Stoch: re cross on weekly. on daily
Summary: I had stop limit orders set at $6,501 and $225.20 for my short positions and they did not fill. The shorter term time frames look significantly overbought to me so I have decided to hold on to them, for now. Since it is only for ¼ of my desired position taking a loss wouldn’t hurt too bad.
I have been watching the 1h chart closely and hoping for another divergence on the like we saw on the 28th. That would put us at major resistance (horizontal and trend) while being overextended which would provide an ideal selling opportunity.
We are threatening to pull back before getting the divergence and/or testing the major level of resistance at $6,800. If that happens it could form a nasty wick on the daily candle and if we close below the MA on the daily then it could get ugly fast. If we close above the 50 day MA and get a crossover on the 12 & 26 EMA's then that would indicate the bulls taking control.
If the green breaks down, as well as $6,400 support, then it would be time to get positioned. If we rally toward major resistance while being overbought then that would provide an even better opportunity. If we continue to move sideways then try your best to stay engaged without driving yourself crazy.