Bitcoin Daily Update (day 217)

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If $6,500 does not become resistance then expect the sideways action to continue for a few more days/weeks."

The 4h TD Sequential just had a red 8 and the 12h is on a red 9. Those both indicate that we should bounce through $6,500 before continuing the move downward.” / Short BTC:USD from $6,474 and short ETH:USD from $225.20.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,571 | S: $6,525
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found resistance at 32,647, watching for double bottom or higher low.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0238%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Price attempting to break through both. If it does with conviction then we should get a bullish crossover.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 is currently trying to resist price, watch for close below | 128: -3.07%
Volume: Instead of watching for a spike in volume it might be best to pay attention to a significant dip in volume . A super squeeze like this should be accompanied by an all time low in volume prior to breakout. That would indicate that
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Bouncing off daily hammer | 4h dojis and shooting star indicate upcoming reversal. Currently re exploring bearish wick on 12h.
Ichimoku Cloud: Top of 1h cloud = $6,565 | Had five candles close above a bullish cloud, current candle is re entering | Briefly broke into 12h cloud but failed to close inside of it.
TD’ Sequential: 1d: R4 | 4h: G8
Visible Range: Trying to break out of highest liquidity area over the past year, but does not appear to have the legs.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.1% | 24h: +1.82% | 1w: -1.49% | 2w: -2.52% | 1m: -9.21%
Bollinger Bands: Top band = $6,800 | MA = $6,547 | If close below MA then should quickly reverse to the downside
Trendline: Have drawn multiple trendlines . The top two represent the top of the descending triangle (red). The bottom trendline (green) represents the key area of support. The red dotted line represents the first/weakest area of trend resistance.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up fractal at $6,674 remains in tact. Should form a new down fractal at $6,428
On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s triangle on the daily chart .
ADX: Indicates upcoming volatility
Chaikin Money Flow: Daily and weekly are in overbought zones.
RSI (30 setting): Watching for bearish divergence on lower time frames
Stoch: Bullish re cross on weekly. Bearish on daily

Summary: I had stop limit orders set at $6,501 and $225.20 for my short positions and they did not fill. The shorter term time frames look significantly overbought to me so I have decided to hold on to them, for now. Since it is only for ¼ of my desired position taking a loss wouldn’t hurt too bad.

I have been watching the 1h chart closely and hoping for another bearish divergence on the RSI like we saw on the 28th. That would put us at major resistance (horizontal and trend) while being overextended which would provide an ideal selling opportunity.

We are threatening to pull back before getting the divergence and/or testing the major level of resistance at $6,800. If that happens it could form a nasty wick on the daily candle and if we close below the MA on the daily Bollinger Band then it could get ugly fast. If we close above the 50 day MA and get a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 EMA's then that would indicate the bulls taking control.

If the green trendline breaks down, as well as $6,400 support, then it would be time to get positioned. If we rally toward major resistance while being overbought then that would provide an even better opportunity. If we continue to move sideways then try your best to stay engaged without driving yourself crazy.
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