BTC: Dump back down to $6400; Or continue with the Reversal?
If you are a trader -- particularly of the "technical" variety - then, it is quite possible you have learned to give at least some, if not a lot of credence to the belief that one of our greatest indicators of future behavior is our past. Look to the past. And perhaps, if we can discover some sort of "pattern," we might, just might have the chance to increase the likelihood of being in the right ballpark in the future.
I often like to try to think "outside the box." Not to say they can't be incredibly useful, or that I don't use them, but, the traditional tools and indicators have been used ad nauseam. So I guess I tend to sometimes I like to try and step back and take a more, shall we say, "intuitive" approach. When I look at the chart, what "jumps out" at me? What do I notice, firsthand, without having to look at any indicators or other possible interference? Well, I know we just had a rather big Green candle, indicating an upward movement. I also notice that after that candle, there is now a much smaller, short Red Candle, indicating a drop in price.
Do I notice this "pattern" - a tallish GREEN candle, followed by a smaller, shortish RED one - anywhere else on the chart? Well, actually, I do. I have taken the liberty of encircling all of the various places I found what appeared to be a relatively similar combination of that green followed by a red.
What else do I notice about this recurring pair, if you will? Well, I notice that every time they are together, the price FALLS some point in the near future. Over and over again: there's a green tall candle up, and a smaller red run-down. Then shortly thereafter, the price declines. Which is to say, very rarely, if ever, do we see a long green candle, followed by a small, short red, followed THEN by another tall green. Almost everytime we see Tall green/short red, it goes down. And this is Exactly what we are seeing now with the present Bitcoin chart.
It's just an observation. So, you say, this may mean nothing.... And maybe it doesn't -- but if my theory pans out, then, in my opinion, that's just one more tool in my arsenal of tools to analyze the patterns of the market. And if it proves useful again, then it will be all the more helpful, and so on.
tl;dr Although I'm still rather bullish on BTC "long(er)" term, based on what I'm seeing with just a prima facie analysis, is a more bearish trend in the short term.
What are your thoughts?
I often like to try to think "outside the box." Not to say they can't be incredibly useful, or that I don't use them, but, the traditional tools and indicators have been used ad nauseam. So I guess I tend to sometimes I like to try and step back and take a more, shall we say, "intuitive" approach. When I look at the chart, what "jumps out" at me? What do I notice, firsthand, without having to look at any indicators or other possible interference? Well, I know we just had a rather big Green candle, indicating an upward movement. I also notice that after that candle, there is now a much smaller, short Red Candle, indicating a drop in price.
Do I notice this "pattern" - a tallish GREEN candle, followed by a smaller, shortish RED one - anywhere else on the chart? Well, actually, I do. I have taken the liberty of encircling all of the various places I found what appeared to be a relatively similar combination of that green followed by a red.
What else do I notice about this recurring pair, if you will? Well, I notice that every time they are together, the price FALLS some point in the near future. Over and over again: there's a green tall candle up, and a smaller red run-down. Then shortly thereafter, the price declines. Which is to say, very rarely, if ever, do we see a long green candle, followed by a small, short red, followed THEN by another tall green. Almost everytime we see Tall green/short red, it goes down. And this is Exactly what we are seeing now with the present Bitcoin chart.
It's just an observation. So, you say, this may mean nothing.... And maybe it doesn't -- but if my theory pans out, then, in my opinion, that's just one more tool in my arsenal of tools to analyze the patterns of the market. And if it proves useful again, then it will be all the more helpful, and so on.
tl;dr Although I'm still rather bullish on BTC "long(er)" term, based on what I'm seeing with just a prima facie analysis, is a more bearish trend in the short term.
What are your thoughts?
