BTC / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE UPDATES.
My analysis today is an actively managed BLOG post looking at the current price of "BTC".
> The post will be updated daily with comments and trade ideas to generate a series where you, the reader, can learn - ACTIVELY - from the analysis and decisions.
> In the following analysis, I highlight a SHORT scenario, focusing on the technical KEY points that will be relevant in the coming days.
> As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.
From the smaller time levels, a bearish divergence can already be seen, which announces a possible downswing. (Visualized at the end of the article.)
If an ab-sale is confirmed, the volume profile areas with the least volume are the easiest to break = lack of liquidity = no interest from buyers. (Visualized at the end of the post.)
> The two most significant and strongest support areas are between - 30,000 USD - 31,000 USD & 26,000 USD - 27,000 USD.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you, and a successful trading!
4H - BEARISH DIVERGENCE - MACD
4H - VOLUME PROFILE
> The post will be updated daily with comments and trade ideas to generate a series where you, the reader, can learn - ACTIVELY - from the analysis and decisions.
> In the following analysis, I highlight a SHORT scenario, focusing on the technical KEY points that will be relevant in the coming days.
> As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.
From the smaller time levels, a bearish divergence can already be seen, which announces a possible downswing. (Visualized at the end of the article.)
If an ab-sale is confirmed, the volume profile areas with the least volume are the easiest to break = lack of liquidity = no interest from buyers. (Visualized at the end of the post.)
> The two most significant and strongest support areas are between - 30,000 USD - 31,000 USD & 26,000 USD - 27,000 USD.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you, and a successful trading!
4H - BEARISH DIVERGENCE - MACD
4H - VOLUME PROFILE
Comment:
SHORT IDEA
Trade active:
The entry got triggered, and we're now in the trade.
Comment:
Depending on the exchange you use, the SL got hit or not.
> I moved mine higher, so that another retest of the current Liquidity grab don't close my position.
> Do this only if you can effort to lose this trade
> I moved mine higher, so that another retest of the current Liquidity grab don't close my position.
> Do this only if you can effort to lose this trade
Comment:
In 1 hour, the "Unemployment Claims" will be published by the USA, which can generate unexpected volatility.
> The volatility can swing in both directions and accordingly become a SL chase before the price decides for one direction.
> So it stands and falls with the outcome of the news and how the USD (DXY) behaves.
Should the marked area in the DXY be significantly broken, the idea is invalid and must be re-evaluated.
> The volatility can swing in both directions and accordingly become a SL chase before the price decides for one direction.
> So it stands and falls with the outcome of the news and how the USD (DXY) behaves.
Should the marked area in the DXY be significantly broken, the idea is invalid and must be re-evaluated.
Comment:
After the BTC completed the SL hunt, we entered a correction - the divergence is still intact.
> In 35 min we have two more events regarding the USD, which continue to keep the price action waiting. (ISM Services PMI + JOLTS)
> I have already taken a position on the SL Hunt and will take another position as shown in the chart below when the breakout is confirmed.
> If someone does not yet own a position and wants to enter, the 0.618 FIB in the purple box would be an interesting entry, which however also brings some risk. (Risk management must fit here).
If you want to take a less risky position, then trade the drawn confirmation.
1 H - OVERVIEW - CHART
> In 35 min we have two more events regarding the USD, which continue to keep the price action waiting. (ISM Services PMI + JOLTS)
> I have already taken a position on the SL Hunt and will take another position as shown in the chart below when the breakout is confirmed.
> If someone does not yet own a position and wants to enter, the 0.618 FIB in the purple box would be an interesting entry, which however also brings some risk. (Risk management must fit here).
If you want to take a less risky position, then trade the drawn confirmation.
1 H - OVERVIEW - CHART
Comment:
The news regarding the USD was positive for the USD, which increased the selling pressure on all other assets and initiated the down sale.
The support line was broken and tested on the smaller time units - no confirmed test has been made on the medium time levels yet.
Depending on the USD (DXY), the ab-sale will continue, or a retest will occur.
1 H - ENTRY POINT - CHART
The support line was broken and tested on the smaller time units - no confirmed test has been made on the medium time levels yet.
Depending on the USD (DXY), the ab-sale will continue, or a retest will occur.
1 H - ENTRY POINT - CHART
Comment:
Comment:
The daily candle (marked in purple) shows a strong bearish candle:
> From the closing price, it has broken the last HL - closing price.
> The last HL - closing price not yet broken, this continues to serve as support (29884.92 USD)
From the long shadow (marked pale), you can see that very strong selling pressure has prevailed, which must be stopped today first.
Due to this, I assume a setback, which could end with a further sale.
> The short positions I will continue to hold and the SL remains unchanged, should nothing change in the DXY (USD).
> As soon as something changes in the DXY (USD), I will re-evaluate the situation.
= In 1 hour and 45 minutes, new FX data for the USD will be published, which could change the valuation - so it is still advised to be cautious.
> From the closing price, it has broken the last HL - closing price.
> The last HL - closing price not yet broken, this continues to serve as support (29884.92 USD)
From the long shadow (marked pale), you can see that very strong selling pressure has prevailed, which must be stopped today first.
Due to this, I assume a setback, which could end with a further sale.
> The short positions I will continue to hold and the SL remains unchanged, should nothing change in the DXY (USD).
> As soon as something changes in the DXY (USD), I will re-evaluate the situation.
= In 1 hour and 45 minutes, new FX data for the USD will be published, which could change the valuation - so it is still advised to be cautious.
Comment:
LEVEL UPDATE
Comment:
The price is currently in the process of regaining the resistance line.
> If this succeeds, then the price will rise to at least the 0.618 FIB - more likely higher, but this would depend on the market sentiment.
> If the price can not regain the resistance line, we can expect a further sell-off.
> If this succeeds, then the price will rise to at least the 0.618 FIB - more likely higher, but this would depend on the market sentiment.
> If the price can not regain the resistance line, we can expect a further sell-off.
Comment:
LEVEL UPDATE
Comment:
LEVEL UPDATE
> Not much has happened here so far, due to the weekend price action.
> Here it is still necessary to wait until liquidity enters the market.
> Not much has happened here so far, due to the weekend price action.
> Here it is still necessary to wait until liquidity enters the market.
Comment:
LEVEL UPDATE
Comment:
We still have to wait for volatility, which is why we are still in our range.
> These are the possible scenarios for the further course.
www.tradingview.com/x/618ocwDo/a
> These are the possible scenarios for the further course.
www.tradingview.com/x/618ocwDo/a
Trade closed manually:
I have closed my positions:
> The new CPI data from the US - looks bad for the USD, which invalidates my SHORT idea.
> Let's first see how the market reacts to the new data and then reposition.
> The new CPI data from the US - looks bad for the USD, which invalidates my SHORT idea.
> Let's first see how the market reacts to the new data and then reposition.