Let's do the point !
Yesterday we spoke of imbalances especially here in breakout (you can find it attached to this one) and how pleasant it is to have finally a technical candle. New candle today, new anomaly and always more pleasure !
First like yesterday we saved the support on the closing so we are always in plan to search an entry pattern here. But what interest me the much, like yesterday, it's volumes. Volumes speak a lot and actually they speak way more than candles. Yesterday we did an exhaust and a breakout, typically a trend ending selling volume candle with more than two time the average volume. But look at today ! It's way better cause we have an anomaly here and simple to note : we have more volume than a candle which is twice the size of today.
What that mean ?
To give picture to beginners, I will say that a volume is an exchange between buyer and seller and more you have exchange more your interest evolve on a side and more your price move. So more you have volumes more the size of your candle increase (much more complicated but let's make this shortcut here).
How can we explain this anomaly ?
Simple fact, if you have an equivalent interest of buyers and sellers for a same price, your price don't change but your volume increase. So here we have a really strong interest at this price. I will be clear, retails are selling, institutionnals are buying. Nothing else can counter as much volumes here.
What do I expect next ?
The pattern is clear (and if you always don't know it, here it is : Exhaust -> Pressure -> Volumes (on a level / support obv)), we had exhaust yesterday, we was searching for pressure, and we have an internal pressure. So now we wait for buying volumes. I spoke of buying volumes a lot and we search them also a lot during the past few supports/weeks and we never find them. It's possible to don't find them again, but patience is the key, they will come, sooner or later !
I also spoke yesterday of the importance of imbalance for the future of BTC, I added two area of interest for it on chart (not the exact imbalance but the area I target in my strategy). We didn't retest it rapidly today, so I maintain my opinion, and with the candle of today I want to add that with the accumulation institutionnal did today if we want to reject the imbalance and run on the bear market limit (around $28,200), institutionnals will dump their orders in the imbalance to buy lower so it will be brutal.
So I maintain that I think we will come back retest the imbalance and two possibilities : breakout which mean buying volume and V-Turn / short U-Turn pattern here ; or reject which mean new selling volume, new exhaust and new low which will bring us in the next support area (gray area).
We could expect to see retest of the low before with a lot of buying pressure but I don't expect the price to close into the gray area before to retest the imbalance.
Also I would like to warn of the possibility to see a panic buy today. It's a standard reaction after this two anomalies. So you could have to control your emotions if it happen ;)
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
PS : Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
Yesterday we spoke of imbalances especially here in breakout (you can find it attached to this one) and how pleasant it is to have finally a technical candle. New candle today, new anomaly and always more pleasure !
First like yesterday we saved the support on the closing so we are always in plan to search an entry pattern here. But what interest me the much, like yesterday, it's volumes. Volumes speak a lot and actually they speak way more than candles. Yesterday we did an exhaust and a breakout, typically a trend ending selling volume candle with more than two time the average volume. But look at today ! It's way better cause we have an anomaly here and simple to note : we have more volume than a candle which is twice the size of today.
What that mean ?
To give picture to beginners, I will say that a volume is an exchange between buyer and seller and more you have exchange more your interest evolve on a side and more your price move. So more you have volumes more the size of your candle increase (much more complicated but let's make this shortcut here).
How can we explain this anomaly ?
Simple fact, if you have an equivalent interest of buyers and sellers for a same price, your price don't change but your volume increase. So here we have a really strong interest at this price. I will be clear, retails are selling, institutionnals are buying. Nothing else can counter as much volumes here.
What do I expect next ?
The pattern is clear (and if you always don't know it, here it is : Exhaust -> Pressure -> Volumes (on a level / support obv)), we had exhaust yesterday, we was searching for pressure, and we have an internal pressure. So now we wait for buying volumes. I spoke of buying volumes a lot and we search them also a lot during the past few supports/weeks and we never find them. It's possible to don't find them again, but patience is the key, they will come, sooner or later !
I also spoke yesterday of the importance of imbalance for the future of BTC, I added two area of interest for it on chart (not the exact imbalance but the area I target in my strategy). We didn't retest it rapidly today, so I maintain my opinion, and with the candle of today I want to add that with the accumulation institutionnal did today if we want to reject the imbalance and run on the bear market limit (around $28,200), institutionnals will dump their orders in the imbalance to buy lower so it will be brutal.
So I maintain that I think we will come back retest the imbalance and two possibilities : breakout which mean buying volume and V-Turn / short U-Turn pattern here ; or reject which mean new selling volume, new exhaust and new low which will bring us in the next support area (gray area).
We could expect to see retest of the low before with a lot of buying pressure but I don't expect the price to close into the gray area before to retest the imbalance.
Also I would like to warn of the possibility to see a panic buy today. It's a standard reaction after this two anomalies. So you could have to control your emotions if it happen ;)
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
PS : Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
Comment:
23/01 : Not a panic buy, just a casual day nothing interesting for the moment. No answer while we are under imbalance area.
