Let's do the point!
Long time since the last update, yesterday I was commenting the past idea (you can find it attached to this one) and I said that one week past and how much it was boring days. Here we have actions, and so things to say.
About the past idea : the observation of the lack of buying volumes said true, which mean another time that patience is the key !
It's always better to be late in a trend than be early in a trap !
For today, it's a breakout, it's an exhaust, it's a liquidation and it's not a flush ! And that change all, you don't reverse market on a flush, the only thing gave by a flush is a panic movement and the next interest area. And, by the way it happen rapidly, price is almost always retest in a flush. I spoke a lot in the past ideas of the Wyckoff pattern and the support area around $42,000 - $39,500. We didn't find anything interesting to exploit. And now we finally break them so we will focus on next area to look for entry pattern.
But before speak of entry, let's focus on the candle of today because it speak so much technically. If you look at volume we have more than two times the average volume, we broke a support and we took the liquidation of the stop hunt of the trap, so its a breakout AND an exhaust. It change a lot of things in front of a standard exhaust, because here we have a resistance in the candle, something you can't see if you don't know how to read volumes through a candle. If I had to picture it for beginner I would say that during a breakout your price is moving strongly, and by the fact you don't find as many buyers for the over quantity of sellers, you just jump the price. Exactly like if you had a gap on other assets. These "holes" in volumes are names imbalances and act like resistances/supports. And as flushs (which have a lot of imbalance in their wick) these imbalances are always retest because they acts like magnets by the fact they are anomalies of market so it's generally revised. I don't know if you get the picture of it but I don't think I'm able to do it in a technical way in english =) .
So that explain the fact I'm pretty sure that this candle will be the key of the next days analysis because an exhaust is the first step of a reversal pattern and on the other side a breakout is the first step of a continuation pattern. So on this imbalance retest we will know what we are going for : BULL or BEAR market.
And now we will speak of price, if you look the chart you will find the conjuncture of two primary support (yellow lines) that I'm looking for reversal pattern. I like the fact we stop over it today, that don't mean anything else than the fact it's well a support but it's the first step to draw good resistances and supports if you want to have good signals. If most of your lines and area don't act like they should that mean you don't draw it well. That don't mean that they can't be break but you should see reactions on it, or at least a breakout which mean there was something here. If the price just passed through it I strongly invit you to work how you draw them. And if I had an advice to give to you to draw them its : Don't try to find lines which match with your actual price or the signal you want to see or confirm, take away the actual price go back on your chart draw them and then see where it is from your actual price.
I already said in one of the past ideas : "we are on support until $39,500 and we are not in bear market until $28,200". We broke $39,500 and we are always over $28,200, nothing alarming for the moment, it's always funny to see how much panic occurs on social media and in beginner reaction. But that really show one thing, people which invest money in it don't manage the risk, whatever the price go, if you have a plan, you never get surprise. And it's obviously not the case of people whose jump in by fear to miss something. So plan your trades and be patient.
I will be honest I think the answer for the long term direction of cryptocurrencies will be in the imbalance I spoke of. If we go retest it rapidly it will not be relevant but if we go retest it in the next few days the reaction on it will be the answer to the question "BULL or BEAR ?".
A last thing, I've posted a short signal analysis on december 28th, I said that I didn't took that one, one reason was that I don't short a bull market, this signal just reached his target and I don't feel like I missed anything. Result-orientism is one of the thing you need to learn to manage to be efficient in trading and it's a perfect transition to say, like always :
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
These updates on cryptocurrencies / BTC market will now be named with "LDTP #..." (Let's do the point) in title for people who want to follow only these ideas.
PS : It was hard to find words to be both technical and understandable for everyone tonight cause I'm really tired. Sorry if there is mistakes in my english. Like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
Long time since the last update, yesterday I was commenting the past idea (you can find it attached to this one) and I said that one week past and how much it was boring days. Here we have actions, and so things to say.
About the past idea : the observation of the lack of buying volumes said true, which mean another time that patience is the key !
It's always better to be late in a trend than be early in a trap !
For today, it's a breakout, it's an exhaust, it's a liquidation and it's not a flush ! And that change all, you don't reverse market on a flush, the only thing gave by a flush is a panic movement and the next interest area. And, by the way it happen rapidly, price is almost always retest in a flush. I spoke a lot in the past ideas of the Wyckoff pattern and the support area around $42,000 - $39,500. We didn't find anything interesting to exploit. And now we finally break them so we will focus on next area to look for entry pattern.
But before speak of entry, let's focus on the candle of today because it speak so much technically. If you look at volume we have more than two times the average volume, we broke a support and we took the liquidation of the stop hunt of the trap, so its a breakout AND an exhaust. It change a lot of things in front of a standard exhaust, because here we have a resistance in the candle, something you can't see if you don't know how to read volumes through a candle. If I had to picture it for beginner I would say that during a breakout your price is moving strongly, and by the fact you don't find as many buyers for the over quantity of sellers, you just jump the price. Exactly like if you had a gap on other assets. These "holes" in volumes are names imbalances and act like resistances/supports. And as flushs (which have a lot of imbalance in their wick) these imbalances are always retest because they acts like magnets by the fact they are anomalies of market so it's generally revised. I don't know if you get the picture of it but I don't think I'm able to do it in a technical way in english =) .
So that explain the fact I'm pretty sure that this candle will be the key of the next days analysis because an exhaust is the first step of a reversal pattern and on the other side a breakout is the first step of a continuation pattern. So on this imbalance retest we will know what we are going for : BULL or BEAR market.
And now we will speak of price, if you look the chart you will find the conjuncture of two primary support (yellow lines) that I'm looking for reversal pattern. I like the fact we stop over it today, that don't mean anything else than the fact it's well a support but it's the first step to draw good resistances and supports if you want to have good signals. If most of your lines and area don't act like they should that mean you don't draw it well. That don't mean that they can't be break but you should see reactions on it, or at least a breakout which mean there was something here. If the price just passed through it I strongly invit you to work how you draw them. And if I had an advice to give to you to draw them its : Don't try to find lines which match with your actual price or the signal you want to see or confirm, take away the actual price go back on your chart draw them and then see where it is from your actual price.
I already said in one of the past ideas : "we are on support until $39,500 and we are not in bear market until $28,200". We broke $39,500 and we are always over $28,200, nothing alarming for the moment, it's always funny to see how much panic occurs on social media and in beginner reaction. But that really show one thing, people which invest money in it don't manage the risk, whatever the price go, if you have a plan, you never get surprise. And it's obviously not the case of people whose jump in by fear to miss something. So plan your trades and be patient.
I will be honest I think the answer for the long term direction of cryptocurrencies will be in the imbalance I spoke of. If we go retest it rapidly it will not be relevant but if we go retest it in the next few days the reaction on it will be the answer to the question "BULL or BEAR ?".
A last thing, I've posted a short signal analysis on december 28th, I said that I didn't took that one, one reason was that I don't short a bull market, this signal just reached his target and I don't feel like I missed anything. Result-orientism is one of the thing you need to learn to manage to be efficient in trading and it's a perfect transition to say, like always :
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
These updates on cryptocurrencies / BTC market will now be named with "LDTP #..." (Let's do the point) in title for people who want to follow only these ideas.
PS : It was hard to find words to be both technical and understandable for everyone tonight cause I'm really tired. Sorry if there is mistakes in my english. Like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
