Institutionnals and the Wyckoff game - BTCUSDT ANALYSIS
Again and again we can speak of Wyckoff on BTC like this past few weeks. Last pattern on 4 hour timeframe failed and didn't gave long swing opportunities. Unfortunetly, nothing to say for the moment on daily / 4 hour timeframe (we are always on the support area (gray area) and we wait for a signal or a breakout to identify new patterns), so I will do an update on lower timeframes to let you know where was/are opportunities and where the activity is centralized.
So let's speak of the 1 hour timeframe, and .... taadddaammmm ! Well known structure now for you, the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern (WAP) ! It could be legitimate from yourself to think I see WAP everywhere but it's specific to this asset and cryptocurrencies overall. Easily explainable by the high interest of retailers for this assets, their weak knowledge of markets and their high acuity to be emotionally influenced. Combined to leverage that just give a lot of opportunities to institutionnal to make money by manipulating this weakness of the cryptocurrency market. So this just appear normal to see WAP many times on this assets.
Now let's talk about the graphics, the famous WAP, useless to speak again of the construction of this pattern so let's go to the conclusion : Institutionnals showed their intentions. We spoke a lot of the necessity of buying volumes on the 4 hour timeframe pattern, and we also waited them a lot, without finding them. Today we saw them, and we saw them where they had to be present, each support have been defend with strong movement, AND the pattern have been completed ! Yes the WAP is a reversal pattern and we are always in the range, so how could it be completed ?! Spring have been done, we goes straight to the resistance lines and SOS failed : THE END (I will comment with a picture on 5 min timeframe to see precisely spring, SOS and opportunities in this WAP). Now we are in a range and we can't speak again of the WAP. It was a day for daytraders and scalpers dynamize by institutionnals, no hazard if market woke up around the US session. If you are swingers wait your turn, we have short term signal, nothing strong to expect a daily bull trend today.
So where are we going ? No crystal ball here, or we do a strong breakout of resistances lines with buying volume and imbalance in the area of resistances lines or we will go at least retest the support and, like always if we don't have buying volume, we will go lower, again. Why not retest the spring, why not the bottom of the support area (gray area). Perfection for institutionnal in term of exploitation of retailers should be a flush under $39,400, where should happen the next movement of panic and exhaust. If it's the case, it's imperative to close back in support area. Each one of this area will give opportunities to make money if we have buying volumes, but always on short term and timeframe. It's also why I don't project myself neither long neither short, we are on short timeframe so we aim for daytrade or scalp on this timeframe.
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Don't forget to like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue ! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
So let's speak of the 1 hour timeframe, and .... taadddaammmm ! Well known structure now for you, the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern (WAP) ! It could be legitimate from yourself to think I see WAP everywhere but it's specific to this asset and cryptocurrencies overall. Easily explainable by the high interest of retailers for this assets, their weak knowledge of markets and their high acuity to be emotionally influenced. Combined to leverage that just give a lot of opportunities to institutionnal to make money by manipulating this weakness of the cryptocurrency market. So this just appear normal to see WAP many times on this assets.
Now let's talk about the graphics, the famous WAP, useless to speak again of the construction of this pattern so let's go to the conclusion : Institutionnals showed their intentions. We spoke a lot of the necessity of buying volumes on the 4 hour timeframe pattern, and we also waited them a lot, without finding them. Today we saw them, and we saw them where they had to be present, each support have been defend with strong movement, AND the pattern have been completed ! Yes the WAP is a reversal pattern and we are always in the range, so how could it be completed ?! Spring have been done, we goes straight to the resistance lines and SOS failed : THE END (I will comment with a picture on 5 min timeframe to see precisely spring, SOS and opportunities in this WAP). Now we are in a range and we can't speak again of the WAP. It was a day for daytraders and scalpers dynamize by institutionnals, no hazard if market woke up around the US session. If you are swingers wait your turn, we have short term signal, nothing strong to expect a daily bull trend today.
So where are we going ? No crystal ball here, or we do a strong breakout of resistances lines with buying volume and imbalance in the area of resistances lines or we will go at least retest the support and, like always if we don't have buying volume, we will go lower, again. Why not retest the spring, why not the bottom of the support area (gray area). Perfection for institutionnal in term of exploitation of retailers should be a flush under $39,400, where should happen the next movement of panic and exhaust. If it's the case, it's imperative to close back in support area. Each one of this area will give opportunities to make money if we have buying volumes, but always on short term and timeframe. It's also why I don't project myself neither long neither short, we are on short timeframe so we aim for daytrade or scalp on this timeframe.
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Don't forget to like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue ! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
Comment:
Here a question someone asked me by message and the answer I gave, it could interest some of you :
"Hey Kentg, I liked your previous post but I have a doubt that you might help me clear. Ive been researching wyckoff accumulation patterns and I see the last step is the SOS, which occurs after breaking resistance, but you already plotted it on your chart, you think the SOS already occurred?."
"Yes for me it is already occured, at least in my strategy, more retest we do on resistance after your last state of pattern (here spring) less the probability of success of your pattern is high. So here some could say : "this isn't a SOS we do simply another retest". Ok if you want but where are you know in your pattern ? what do you expect next ? another spring ? You are just lost. So, for me, when you passed your higher level of stress of your pattern (which is the spring) the next step is the SOS. Why for me we fail ? because we have selling volumes, an SOS could bring to a correction in the range but it's not supposed to have strenght in it. And here we have."
I want to had : Wyckoff is a pattern based on psychology of market, you have to read into it to understand in which state we are in the pattern. And by the way in his pattern Wyckoff speak of a minor SOS around resistances and a major SOS out of the range.
"Hey Kentg, I liked your previous post but I have a doubt that you might help me clear. Ive been researching wyckoff accumulation patterns and I see the last step is the SOS, which occurs after breaking resistance, but you already plotted it on your chart, you think the SOS already occurred?."
"Yes for me it is already occured, at least in my strategy, more retest we do on resistance after your last state of pattern (here spring) less the probability of success of your pattern is high. So here some could say : "this isn't a SOS we do simply another retest". Ok if you want but where are you know in your pattern ? what do you expect next ? another spring ? You are just lost. So, for me, when you passed your higher level of stress of your pattern (which is the spring) the next step is the SOS. Why for me we fail ? because we have selling volumes, an SOS could bring to a correction in the range but it's not supposed to have strenght in it. And here we have."
I want to had : Wyckoff is a pattern based on psychology of market, you have to read into it to understand in which state we are in the pattern. And by the way in his pattern Wyckoff speak of a minor SOS around resistances and a major SOS out of the range.
We can see also the accelaration around 15:15 on chart, the fail in SOS and defence of the support after it.
Always same strategy, ratio 2:1, breakeven at 1:1.
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"