1/03/2022 Bitcoin Analysis Sofi12z I Fundamental and Technical
Hey guys, sorry for the delay in today's Technical Analysis, but here we go.
First of all warn, that all Technical, Fundamental Analysis is done at my own risk. I hope that is clear, you make your own concepts and decisions when operating. It's just an IDEA.
Information.
The Reversal BTC, It was generated exactly on February 25, 2022. At the price of 39200-40000 with a +/- 90% probability.
A Reversal will not necessarily be fulfilled in a short period of time, it can take days or months, in this case it was fulfilled in just 3 days. Although it must be taken into account that there was not much difference in the Closing Price of the Reversal with that of BTC at that time 37K.
When CME opens in UTC time. It was February 28, 2022. For us in Latin America it would still be a Weekend. Now they understand why the volatility in the middle of Sunday in Bitcoin. Happily, there was enough momentum from Institutional Volume and Whales to push price straight towards the 39000-40000 Reversal. Also, very easily.
Fun fact: The interesting thing started to happen at the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. So now we have an idea that most of the volume is coming directly from Chicago in CME Trades which can be seen in the CFTC Report.
For you to understand me, within the stock market there are 2 pairs known as “BTC1! And ETH1! “, These can be operated by institutional with a minimum amount of 5 Bitcoin per operation. Reports come out from time to time at the Securities Futures Commission. Because in the stock market it is obligatory to report positions EVERYONE equally.
With the opening of the Wall Street stock market, it is where we play both Reversal after the weekend and 1 day exactly 3 days from the mark.
+/-90%, 39000 – Goal Met, 40000 Goal Met.
Closing Sessions NewYork, Los tomas as liquidity points. For the following openings. Mainly the one on February 28. It is not support or resistance, I repeat.
Let's go Volume, but don't worry this time I won't use Volume Profile.
If we can visualize, both Volume columns are developed at the open or 1H after the NewYork open, this volume is the largest on CME after 3 weeks of inactivity for this type of amount of trading.
What I mentioned above, take liquidity in 44k to make a decision about where to manage the risk for your benefit (Institutional). Exactly whether it is long or short, they do not interest you, they only want to obtain benefits from their operations and for this Risk Management, they will bet according to the trend they create, this will appear in the CFTC report that should not take several days to come out publicly. As I mentioned, each operation has a minimum of 5 BTC.
I think it is not necessary to add that curiosity that the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine are happening, warn of a possible treaty and then the open interest in operating Bitcoin skyrockets within WallStreet. It is something curious. Perhaps a manipulation hahaha or take advantage of the impulses of Russian users to support their capital in Bitcoin since according to reports from several relevant companies in the Blockchain they could even be buying at prices of 64K USDT per Bitcoin.
Something more interesting, the number of 1000 BTC Wallets that I mentioned a few days ago began to increase for the first time in quite some time. And BTC Volume on 10+ Major Exchanges Soars Alongside Trading Volume on WallStreet.
All these fundamentals were mentioned days ago. You can search for them within the channel. Manipulation or Logic? - My point of view is logical, based on statistical and fundamental reports. Beyond a belief of manipulation by Whales and Institutions.
Warning: A comparison of Bitcoin Relative Price against the S&P500 advises a possible rising wedge. Be careful with open trades, StopLoss on profit.
👀Note: It should be added that it is only a comparison of BTC/S&P500. We don't usually use these patterns.
Now if we already take into account all the data mentioned above, let's go to the Technical Analysis with Threesold Volume
The Market Session B, are sessions with unusual volumes within the 3 main markets, London, NewYork and Tokyo.
The “Grey Zone” is my way of calling a small range within taking trading positions. These can be defined using the Volume Circles indicator.
I don't think it will be too noticeable since I have the transparency at a minimum, but those are the points. They can define a good number of volumes if consecutive lines are formed (Range) that sooner or later breaks it towards a continuation or new trend. In general, in Bitcoin it is not going to be very useful for you to know it because the Volume cannot be had in its entirety and it is easy to manipulate. Even the same Bookmap place and take orders, but it can be used to prevent us from possible movements with our positions.
Even for me to have at least an idea of how the volume really moves I had to include several exchange information in one and still I don't have it all.
Now let's go to Volume Support and Resistance data.
On the 1H chart at VolumeTH, the current support is located at 42800-43200 (I remind you that it is 1H, it does not necessarily cover a wide range).
The 1H resistance would be 45100-44800 to be exact above the daily resistance high on VolumeH.
The 4H resistance (It is the current Gray zone). Covering from 44000-43000 in VolumeTH.
Current 4H support is located at 37600-37000 inside VolunenTH.
Daily resistance remains the same starting from 44000-45000.
Daily support is located within 36000-37000.
Finally, weekly support spanning 32000-36000 touching daily support low. Taking into account the block of strong daily orders. (An order block is my way of calling it, if you decide to call it OB that's fine, but I take it as an area of cumulative orders for a continuation or completion) although it should be added that this indicator is based on Thershold Volume
Weekly resistance is located from 42000-46000.
These support and resistance are dynamic based on Volume, not chart based.
Currently in 1H chart.
Most indicators are overbought.
The volume is bearish.
F&G is neutral with a 4% increase.
Personally, I don't think we're going to break the Daily resistance so easily. The 1H resistance will be broken automatically if the daily resistance is broken. However having the volume bearish gives me a small hint that we could have a little pullback attempt to the downside.
We have taken positions in dead spots taking advantage of the CME Reversals.
My personal opinion is that there are two possible scenarios in general.
It will depend a lot on the second Ukraine-Russia meeting and the opening of the CME (Next weekend maybe).
In addition to waiting for the update of the CFTC report regarding operations in Bitcoin.
I think we will be in a gray area. That they will take positions within it. These can be viewed within the CFTC report.
Once the report is obtained, we could get an idea of where we should start taking positions. Together with the visualization of the Volume in Bitcoin within the CME in addition to perhaps taking advantage of a Reversal generated, I think that we could be in a range within 42000-45000 in this week after obtaining those 2 data that will help us to know our positions better head towards any of the 2 scenarios below.
1- Rejection at Weekly Resistance Support and heading towards 37000 again for testing. In 4H graph.
2- Weekly Resistance breakout and heading to 53000 (CME 12H Reversal December 2021).
Personal Ideas.
4H - My personal idea is a break of weekly resistance and heading to a low of 53000, it will depend on the CFTC report and Institutional + Exchange Volume. I will update periodically. We don't have this data yet so we'll have to wait. In 4H graph.
1H – I think we will get a pullback to 43000 levels. In case of a downside V break I don't think we will go below 41000.
Falling towards those levels on the 1H chart can be beneficial as long as there are not too many V-Breakouts that could determine that the Bears have the advantage in terms of positions. Mainly to take more liquidity (Long Operations)
First of all warn, that all Technical, Fundamental Analysis is done at my own risk. I hope that is clear, you make your own concepts and decisions when operating. It's just an IDEA.
Information.
The Reversal BTC, It was generated exactly on February 25, 2022. At the price of 39200-40000 with a +/- 90% probability.
A Reversal will not necessarily be fulfilled in a short period of time, it can take days or months, in this case it was fulfilled in just 3 days. Although it must be taken into account that there was not much difference in the Closing Price of the Reversal with that of BTC at that time 37K.
When CME opens in UTC time. It was February 28, 2022. For us in Latin America it would still be a Weekend. Now they understand why the volatility in the middle of Sunday in Bitcoin. Happily, there was enough momentum from Institutional Volume and Whales to push price straight towards the 39000-40000 Reversal. Also, very easily.
Fun fact: The interesting thing started to happen at the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. So now we have an idea that most of the volume is coming directly from Chicago in CME Trades which can be seen in the CFTC Report.
For you to understand me, within the stock market there are 2 pairs known as “BTC1! And ETH1! “, These can be operated by institutional with a minimum amount of 5 Bitcoin per operation. Reports come out from time to time at the Securities Futures Commission. Because in the stock market it is obligatory to report positions EVERYONE equally.
With the opening of the Wall Street stock market, it is where we play both Reversal after the weekend and 1 day exactly 3 days from the mark.
+/-90%, 39000 – Goal Met, 40000 Goal Met.
Closing Sessions NewYork, Los tomas as liquidity points. For the following openings. Mainly the one on February 28. It is not support or resistance, I repeat.
Let's go Volume, but don't worry this time I won't use Volume Profile.
If we can visualize, both Volume columns are developed at the open or 1H after the NewYork open, this volume is the largest on CME after 3 weeks of inactivity for this type of amount of trading.
What I mentioned above, take liquidity in 44k to make a decision about where to manage the risk for your benefit (Institutional). Exactly whether it is long or short, they do not interest you, they only want to obtain benefits from their operations and for this Risk Management, they will bet according to the trend they create, this will appear in the CFTC report that should not take several days to come out publicly. As I mentioned, each operation has a minimum of 5 BTC.
I think it is not necessary to add that curiosity that the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine are happening, warn of a possible treaty and then the open interest in operating Bitcoin skyrockets within WallStreet. It is something curious. Perhaps a manipulation hahaha or take advantage of the impulses of Russian users to support their capital in Bitcoin since according to reports from several relevant companies in the Blockchain they could even be buying at prices of 64K USDT per Bitcoin.
Something more interesting, the number of 1000 BTC Wallets that I mentioned a few days ago began to increase for the first time in quite some time. And BTC Volume on 10+ Major Exchanges Soars Alongside Trading Volume on WallStreet.
All these fundamentals were mentioned days ago. You can search for them within the channel. Manipulation or Logic? - My point of view is logical, based on statistical and fundamental reports. Beyond a belief of manipulation by Whales and Institutions.
Warning: A comparison of Bitcoin Relative Price against the S&P500 advises a possible rising wedge. Be careful with open trades, StopLoss on profit.
👀Note: It should be added that it is only a comparison of BTC/S&P500. We don't usually use these patterns.
Now if we already take into account all the data mentioned above, let's go to the Technical Analysis with Threesold Volume
The Market Session B, are sessions with unusual volumes within the 3 main markets, London, NewYork and Tokyo.
The “Grey Zone” is my way of calling a small range within taking trading positions. These can be defined using the Volume Circles indicator.
I don't think it will be too noticeable since I have the transparency at a minimum, but those are the points. They can define a good number of volumes if consecutive lines are formed (Range) that sooner or later breaks it towards a continuation or new trend. In general, in Bitcoin it is not going to be very useful for you to know it because the Volume cannot be had in its entirety and it is easy to manipulate. Even the same Bookmap place and take orders, but it can be used to prevent us from possible movements with our positions.
Even for me to have at least an idea of how the volume really moves I had to include several exchange information in one and still I don't have it all.
Now let's go to Volume Support and Resistance data.
On the 1H chart at VolumeTH, the current support is located at 42800-43200 (I remind you that it is 1H, it does not necessarily cover a wide range).
The 1H resistance would be 45100-44800 to be exact above the daily resistance high on VolumeH.
The 4H resistance (It is the current Gray zone). Covering from 44000-43000 in VolumeTH.
Current 4H support is located at 37600-37000 inside VolunenTH.
Daily resistance remains the same starting from 44000-45000.
Daily support is located within 36000-37000.
Finally, weekly support spanning 32000-36000 touching daily support low. Taking into account the block of strong daily orders. (An order block is my way of calling it, if you decide to call it OB that's fine, but I take it as an area of cumulative orders for a continuation or completion) although it should be added that this indicator is based on Thershold Volume
Weekly resistance is located from 42000-46000.
These support and resistance are dynamic based on Volume, not chart based.
Currently in 1H chart.
Most indicators are overbought.
The volume is bearish.
F&G is neutral with a 4% increase.
Personally, I don't think we're going to break the Daily resistance so easily. The 1H resistance will be broken automatically if the daily resistance is broken. However having the volume bearish gives me a small hint that we could have a little pullback attempt to the downside.
We have taken positions in dead spots taking advantage of the CME Reversals.
My personal opinion is that there are two possible scenarios in general.
It will depend a lot on the second Ukraine-Russia meeting and the opening of the CME (Next weekend maybe).
In addition to waiting for the update of the CFTC report regarding operations in Bitcoin.
I think we will be in a gray area. That they will take positions within it. These can be viewed within the CFTC report.
Once the report is obtained, we could get an idea of where we should start taking positions. Together with the visualization of the Volume in Bitcoin within the CME in addition to perhaps taking advantage of a Reversal generated, I think that we could be in a range within 42000-45000 in this week after obtaining those 2 data that will help us to know our positions better head towards any of the 2 scenarios below.
1- Rejection at Weekly Resistance Support and heading towards 37000 again for testing. In 4H graph.
2- Weekly Resistance breakout and heading to 53000 (CME 12H Reversal December 2021).
Personal Ideas.
4H - My personal idea is a break of weekly resistance and heading to a low of 53000, it will depend on the CFTC report and Institutional + Exchange Volume. I will update periodically. We don't have this data yet so we'll have to wait. In 4H graph.
1H – I think we will get a pullback to 43000 levels. In case of a downside V break I don't think we will go below 41000.
Falling towards those levels on the 1H chart can be beneficial as long as there are not too many V-Breakouts that could determine that the Bears have the advantage in terms of positions. Mainly to take more liquidity (Long Operations)
41K Chart Goal 1H Completed, Good job guys.