Bitcoin Daily Update (day 219)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.


My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “...that is why I am waiting for a breakthrough of the trendline, a higher high on the weekly and a close above the daily cloud before I start looking for longs. Until then I will continue to look for shorting opportunities.” / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,554 | S: $6,537
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hammer candle as it appears to have turned prior resistance into support
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Price is back above 12 & 26 EMA’s and they are attempting to make a bullish crossover.
50 & 128 MA’s: Trying to breakthrough 50 MA | 128: -2.77%
Volume: Getting a nice dip in volume over the last couple days. Watching for record low volume levels to indicate the consolidation is complete
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Bullish spinning top from yesterday. Weekly doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: 12h cloud acting as resistance. Price is trying to break out of 4h cloud.
TD’ Sequential: W: Price flipping | D: G2 = G1 | 12h: Price flipping | 4h: R3 = R2 | 1h: Price flipping
Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above the point of control.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.51% | 24h: -0.1% | 1w: -0.16% | 2w: -1.70% | 1m: -1.52%
Bollinger Bands: Continue to support above MA. When in a super squeeze and consolidating above MA it is more likely to breakout to the upside.
Trendline: Testing downtrend that connects July 25th to September 5th. Top of descending triangle = $6,926
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,668 | Down: $6,429
On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s descending triangle.
ADX: Indicates upcoming volatility
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from 0.2 on daily.
RSI (30 setting): Remains inside it’s symmetrical triangle on daily
Stoch: Making bullish re cross on daily.

Summary: I got chopped out on another short position yesterday. This has been my worst losing streak in six months and that caused me to take a step back and re evaluate. Instead of being cold and calculated I have been battling feelings of FOMO.

Fear of missing out does not only happen to the upside, it can be just as tangible when looking to the downside. The longer we stay inside this triangle the more violent the subsequent move is expected to be. This knowledge has led me to feel on edge/anxious when not in a position.

If it breaks down and I am not at my computer, or prepared with a stop entry, then the price could fall 40% before I get entered. That would be extremely frustrating, especially after taking a number of losses trying to position myself early. Fear of the market leaving me behind is the primary reason I have made suboptimal entries over the past couple weeks.

Nobody is perfect and this market is about as frustrated as they get. Therefore I will not be giving myself a hard time about those mistakes, instead I will be learning and moving forward.

I have labeled $6,400 - $6,700 a no trade zone. I will not make another entry as long as Bitcoin remains stuck in that range. If that means that I miss out on the eventual move then that is okay because there will be plenty more opportunities around the corner.

"You have an infinite' amount of opportunities and a limited amount of money" -Tyler Jenks