Bitcoin failed to fully react to the Greyscale news in the way most expected.
By defeating the SEC in court Greyscale have effectively removed the SEC's reasons for refusing spot ETF's to this point. With the size and scope of the proposed BTC spot ETF's (from BlackRock, Fidelity, Valkyrie etc.) it should be expected that any news that helps them manifest should have a major impact on price. in the end we got a 6% bump, good but not what we had hoped.
Here's some thoughts as to why;
- Lack of volume in the market. It’s still August and volumes in BTC have been terrible for weeks now. We should know by next week whether this is a summer vacation lull or if we have a demand problem. It’s hard to gauge where retail are after a brutal bull market, cost of living increases and a new shiny bubble in AI.
-FOMC minutes were hawkish in tone. Economy performing over expectation combined with still high inflation means we are probably still in a rate hike cycle. Plus it’s PCE data today. I think most will be taking a wait and see approach. If we see core inflation under the predicted 4.2% think we could get a surge into BTC.
-Binance issues, sealed SEC binance indictment could be spooking the market. Realistically I think binance being either kicked out of town or brought to heel is going to be necessary to the ETF spot applications being accepted. That suits almost everyone involved blackrock, coinbase and the SEC.
- We have a decsion on the Bitwise ETF coming on Sept. 1. BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco and Wisdomtree decisions by Sept. 2, and Valkyrie is set to hear on Sept. 4. Everybody is expecting delays but after the SEC ruling (and zero communication from the SEC on the ruling) do they just rip of the band aid and pass the applications. We probably have capital parked on the sidelines until theres clarity more clarity.
In terms of technicals remaining the daily 200MA (pink line) is a key first step towards recovery. Holding here is step one with reclaiming the $28.k support / resistance step two. Positive inflation data today could help this. After this I'd like to see price break that upper trendline (purple) to invalidate the bearish rising wedge formation which could foreshadow a breakdown.
Basically all of this boils down to the hope that major investment is coming, it's just waiting for the trigger to be pulled. Everybody wants to launch into an ETF pump supported by a declining interest rate without any major scandals or exchange collapses spoiling the party. This is just a hope but the massive potential growth of BTC and the involvement of THE financial orthodoxy (BlackRock et al) probably makes this hope a fact. At least we don't have too long to wait.
By defeating the SEC in court Greyscale have effectively removed the SEC's reasons for refusing spot ETF's to this point. With the size and scope of the proposed BTC spot ETF's (from BlackRock, Fidelity, Valkyrie etc.) it should be expected that any news that helps them manifest should have a major impact on price. in the end we got a 6% bump, good but not what we had hoped.
Here's some thoughts as to why;
- Lack of volume in the market. It’s still August and volumes in BTC have been terrible for weeks now. We should know by next week whether this is a summer vacation lull or if we have a demand problem. It’s hard to gauge where retail are after a brutal bull market, cost of living increases and a new shiny bubble in AI.
-FOMC minutes were hawkish in tone. Economy performing over expectation combined with still high inflation means we are probably still in a rate hike cycle. Plus it’s PCE data today. I think most will be taking a wait and see approach. If we see core inflation under the predicted 4.2% think we could get a surge into BTC.
-Binance issues, sealed SEC binance indictment could be spooking the market. Realistically I think binance being either kicked out of town or brought to heel is going to be necessary to the ETF spot applications being accepted. That suits almost everyone involved blackrock, coinbase and the SEC.
- We have a decsion on the Bitwise ETF coming on Sept. 1. BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco and Wisdomtree decisions by Sept. 2, and Valkyrie is set to hear on Sept. 4. Everybody is expecting delays but after the SEC ruling (and zero communication from the SEC on the ruling) do they just rip of the band aid and pass the applications. We probably have capital parked on the sidelines until theres clarity more clarity.
In terms of technicals remaining the daily 200MA (pink line) is a key first step towards recovery. Holding here is step one with reclaiming the $28.k support / resistance step two. Positive inflation data today could help this. After this I'd like to see price break that upper trendline (purple) to invalidate the bearish rising wedge formation which could foreshadow a breakdown.
Basically all of this boils down to the hope that major investment is coming, it's just waiting for the trigger to be pulled. Everybody wants to launch into an ETF pump supported by a declining interest rate without any major scandals or exchange collapses spoiling the party. This is just a hope but the massive potential growth of BTC and the involvement of THE financial orthodoxy (BlackRock et al) probably makes this hope a fact. At least we don't have too long to wait.