Robertus

Bitcoin Healthy Correction. What to Do?

Long
Robertus Updated   
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
It is time to wait for a confirmation on a reversal.

I drew some W's, we need to see something similar like the ugly W circled in blue.
Price below it's 4hr EMA20. (purple)
Accumulation Distribution below its EMA13 now acting as resistance. (black/aqua below)
MACD showing huge dump (circle in pink).
There were possible reversal zones detected based on key pivot points.

First potential reversal is between the 45k and 48k level. It would be cool we reverse at this level, but in our perspective perhaps is a bit optimistic.
Normally corrections have 2 legs down, and now we see only one leg, within that leg there are three mini legs, but that would be in our perspective another timeframe.
It also touches the EMA20 timeframe daily level (not shown).

Second. The most likely scenario is a reversal around the 38k and 40k level. There we could have a second leg, meaning a likelihood of a reversal.
Why corrections have two legs ? it is just how people see it, and institutions see it. Perhaps there is a mystical force too that makes that happens. we go more with the premise that people just expect it.
It also touches the EMA20 3Day timeframe level (not shown).

Third. The levels between 32k and 34k would be pessimistic scenario but possible. This are at the points of control of the Volume Profile (range of prices where most trades happened).
It also touches the EMA20 weekly timeframe level (not shown).
At what price are institutions, big investors or the majority of bulls willing to buy ?

We also need to see in the Volume indicator (circles in black), an exhaustion of selling volume which may be represented by a huge sell candle at the end, and a huge sell volume bar followed by an increasing trend of green volume bars (increasing in size one after the other).
In the MACD (circle in pink) it would be nice to get a nice divergence, perhaps this can be made by a second leg down but with less selling pressure or decreasing momentum.

In our perspective, trend reversals most of the time fail. Just count the number of attempts of reverse in a trend, and divide one successful reversal between all those attempts and you'll see what we mean.
What it is being said is that this bull run in the weekly, 3day or daily looks very extreme, and this is just a reversal attempt that it will likely fail (not saying is not possible).

If people panic, and there are some surprising news of a sort, or a panic sell in the SP&500 (which is for the moment correlated with BTC), then we can go all the way down.
Anything can happen, but we have to ask what are the chances of that happening ? Yes, Bitcoin can go to $1000, but what are the chances ?

We have to be open that everything is possible. Everything is uncertain, and it's impossible to predict price, we can just get the most likely scenario based on an educated guess.

Perhaps a good strategy would be to buy at those pivots and put a stop loss below each one, if it fails then enter on the next one.
Also the one I like personally, is to buy a little in each support to average the price down, and hold it until this bull run ends. When will it end ?Then stay tuned my friend.

Just an OPINION if it is useful please LIKE and FOLLOW. Best of Best my Friend :)
Comment:
Pullback time, would be optimistic if it takes off from here, a second leg down is the most likely event.
Comment:

“All fixed set patterns are incapable of adaptability or pliability. The truth is outside of all fixed patterns” BL
Trader Since 2016. Industrial and Operations Engineering at U of Michigan, Ann Arbor. MBA IPADE. Master in Finance EGADE.
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