BTC/USDT - Desperate Move to Cross Monthly Resistance

BTCUSDT on a daily candle wicked past the monthly level today but was immediately rejected.

Current Price= $39,167

There are two possible scenarios:

1. If the candle fails to close above the monthly level i.e.$39,231 there is immediate weekly support at $38,215 followed by daily supports at $37,650 and $34,600. If, it fails to hold the daily supports the next strong monthly support level is at $31,100.

2. If BTC manages to close above the monthly resistance it will gain the level and it would not be difficult to break the next daily resistance at $40,841 followed by weekly support at $42,281. This is the second time price has retested to surpass the monthly resistance (along with the first touch). In our experience, if the price fails to surpass a level and gains it on a second retest it is rejected and usually results in a downward move to consolidate and retest the level again.

I anticipate BTC to hover in the same zone between $31,000 and $40,000 unless it breaks the psychological level of $28,000 and test $24,000 as well. For fresh liquidity to enter these key psychological levels are a must attain.

For e.g Micro Strategy is waiting in the stands with it's $500 million for the price to reach these psychological levls so that it can dollar cost average its position. The same scenario is with institutional investors like Grayscale and others. High net worth individuals like Justin Sun and others are also waiting for the price to move below these psychological levels so that they can dollar cost average their positions.

Looking at the current trends in volume I anticipate that BTC will not be abe to close above the monthly level and the likelihood of Scenario-1 being played out in the next few days looks stronger.

We will wait for the daily close before opening any fresh swing trades since key levels are imperative to attribute accumulation or a distribution phase.

Do comment and share your feedback and opinion.