Market volume is low so there is a strong possibility of some volatility later today when FED Chairman Powell speaks today at Jackson Hole. With volume so thin the market can be moved easily and the FED's tone for Q3 will be set at the speech today.
The crypto market needs a low interest rate environment so good news for crypto is a slowing overall economy - if jobs and businesses are suffering the FED needs to, if not stimulate the economy, at least give it a fighting chance and that means pausing (or even reducing) interest rates helping businesses and consumers get loans and start investing and spending money.
The most recent significant economic data, the PMI which measures businesses plans for future investment, showed an economy in decline which we would expect to mean that interest rates are at least paused at 5.25%-5.5% in September. If Powell sort of hints towards rate pauses then I think we can see BTC respond positively, and vice versa.
Realistically however the speeches are usually just a 'if this then that..' ramble that hints at both rate hikes and pauses and its usually just the interpretation on twitter that drives the market response (so much so that recently Powell had to give a second speech to clarify his vague comments in the first). Still it will be good to get some actual volume into the market thats experiencing a profound summer lull.
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Summer volume dips are a fact of most markets but the expected influx of volume in September may be slowed by the announcement that Binance is re-introducing taker fees on their BTC/TUSD pairs. Currently, because of the zero maker and taker fees the BTC/TUSD pair accounts for around 11% of traded BTC volume (according to coinmarketcap which is owned by binance).
In order to overcome the re-introduction of taker fees on market orders we'll need to see some BTC price movement, so fees can be absorbed by profit. TBH I'm uncertain of the amount of BTC purchased via market or limit orders - if large private OTC transactions are done via market orders then this could be a big impediment to BTC price recovery.
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CZ finally addressed the 'Binance sells BTC to prop up BNB narrative'. He debunked the theory by pointing out that even if Binance did sell the 30M dollars worth of BTC they were rumoured to have sold it would account for 0.001% of the BTC volume traded and therefore have zero impact on price. TBH I wasnt aware of the specifics of the accustaion other than the general claim that they were supportimg BNB's price following withdrawals prompted by the mistaken addmission that their fiat off ramps were being removed in Europe. Whatever the truth the BNB price gives a clear indiaction that Binance is showing signs of fatigue in the wake of an international regulatory full court press.
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Spot ETF's - My current feeling is that we are in a market lull until this issue becomes clearer. Spot ETF approval will see us push the mid $30's (my long term target has been an unfilled CME gap at $35,936) but a rejection will probably see us retest the old $20k support. Luckily I think we will get approval (it's Blackrock) or at least a more co-operative SEC so rather than a rejection we'll get a re-submission request.
There is widespread speculation that the decision will not happen until 2024, the SEC has 240 days to assess the proposal and its rumoured that they will take all of the time available to them. Luckily though we may get a clear hint soon as the SEC vs Greyscale court case is close to conclusion. The judges ruling is due soon and if they rule that the SEC's reasoning for denying the Greyscale ETF is flawed then its a clear indication that approval is likely on the new applications. Greyscale will need to re-apply, they wont automatically get their ETF but a positive outcome for Greyscale will still pump the market.
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Tecnicals are jumbled - price seems to be concentrated around $26k with Tuesday's slight bounce coinciding with the RSI going oversold. We have dropped out of our long term broadening wedge (white) and seem to have formed a symmetrical triangle (purple) an indecisive patter that just highlights the markets lack of a clear direction. The RSI oversold could trigger a push up to the top trendline but the EMA20 crossing below the EMA50 and approaching the EMA 200 could indicate a breakdown on the lower trendline.
Personally I'd take a wait and see stance here, the low volume market combined with some potentially high impact events will give real opportunities but currently its hard to determine which way they will skew.
The crypto market needs a low interest rate environment so good news for crypto is a slowing overall economy - if jobs and businesses are suffering the FED needs to, if not stimulate the economy, at least give it a fighting chance and that means pausing (or even reducing) interest rates helping businesses and consumers get loans and start investing and spending money.
The most recent significant economic data, the PMI which measures businesses plans for future investment, showed an economy in decline which we would expect to mean that interest rates are at least paused at 5.25%-5.5% in September. If Powell sort of hints towards rate pauses then I think we can see BTC respond positively, and vice versa.
Realistically however the speeches are usually just a 'if this then that..' ramble that hints at both rate hikes and pauses and its usually just the interpretation on twitter that drives the market response (so much so that recently Powell had to give a second speech to clarify his vague comments in the first). Still it will be good to get some actual volume into the market thats experiencing a profound summer lull.
-
Summer volume dips are a fact of most markets but the expected influx of volume in September may be slowed by the announcement that Binance is re-introducing taker fees on their BTC/TUSD pairs. Currently, because of the zero maker and taker fees the BTC/TUSD pair accounts for around 11% of traded BTC volume (according to coinmarketcap which is owned by binance).
In order to overcome the re-introduction of taker fees on market orders we'll need to see some BTC price movement, so fees can be absorbed by profit. TBH I'm uncertain of the amount of BTC purchased via market or limit orders - if large private OTC transactions are done via market orders then this could be a big impediment to BTC price recovery.
-
CZ finally addressed the 'Binance sells BTC to prop up BNB narrative'. He debunked the theory by pointing out that even if Binance did sell the 30M dollars worth of BTC they were rumoured to have sold it would account for 0.001% of the BTC volume traded and therefore have zero impact on price. TBH I wasnt aware of the specifics of the accustaion other than the general claim that they were supportimg BNB's price following withdrawals prompted by the mistaken addmission that their fiat off ramps were being removed in Europe. Whatever the truth the BNB price gives a clear indiaction that Binance is showing signs of fatigue in the wake of an international regulatory full court press.
-
Spot ETF's - My current feeling is that we are in a market lull until this issue becomes clearer. Spot ETF approval will see us push the mid $30's (my long term target has been an unfilled CME gap at $35,936) but a rejection will probably see us retest the old $20k support. Luckily I think we will get approval (it's Blackrock) or at least a more co-operative SEC so rather than a rejection we'll get a re-submission request.
There is widespread speculation that the decision will not happen until 2024, the SEC has 240 days to assess the proposal and its rumoured that they will take all of the time available to them. Luckily though we may get a clear hint soon as the SEC vs Greyscale court case is close to conclusion. The judges ruling is due soon and if they rule that the SEC's reasoning for denying the Greyscale ETF is flawed then its a clear indication that approval is likely on the new applications. Greyscale will need to re-apply, they wont automatically get their ETF but a positive outcome for Greyscale will still pump the market.
-
Tecnicals are jumbled - price seems to be concentrated around $26k with Tuesday's slight bounce coinciding with the RSI going oversold. We have dropped out of our long term broadening wedge (white) and seem to have formed a symmetrical triangle (purple) an indecisive patter that just highlights the markets lack of a clear direction. The RSI oversold could trigger a push up to the top trendline but the EMA20 crossing below the EMA50 and approaching the EMA 200 could indicate a breakdown on the lower trendline.
Personally I'd take a wait and see stance here, the low volume market combined with some potentially high impact events will give real opportunities but currently its hard to determine which way they will skew.