Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on January 3rd, 2023
On the last trading day of 2022, the Nasdaq saw an unusual pull-up before the closing bell. The final red marubozu was used to close out 2022. The crypto market saw a public rally during the U.S. stock market break. More minor currencies generally rallied more than 5%. People still want to rise, just short of the Fed's policy turn.
There is no interest rate resolution in January, only CPI and other essential data releases. It is expected that the entire January market will remain in a relatively calm fluctuation. It is challenging to have a big market. The volatility will likely get bigger only at the data release time. Twenty-five basis points of an interest rate hike can be confirmed in February. The continued decline in strength also means that the probability of stopping the rate hike in March is very high. This is an essential prerequisite for the bull-bear transition. So optimistically, an apparent upward move could occur as soon as February as the market is priced in early. Pessimistically, the market needs to see CPI numbers start to fall below rates. That day will not be too late, and six months will be enough time to reach it.
The most challenging days are already behind us with 2022. What lies ahead now is no longer a bear market pit but a new peak. Even if the road is not smooth, hope is in sight.
There is no interest rate resolution in January, only CPI and other essential data releases. It is expected that the entire January market will remain in a relatively calm fluctuation. It is challenging to have a big market. The volatility will likely get bigger only at the data release time. Twenty-five basis points of an interest rate hike can be confirmed in February. The continued decline in strength also means that the probability of stopping the rate hike in March is very high. This is an essential prerequisite for the bull-bear transition. So optimistically, an apparent upward move could occur as soon as February as the market is priced in early. Pessimistically, the market needs to see CPI numbers start to fall below rates. That day will not be too late, and six months will be enough time to reach it.
The most challenging days are already behind us with 2022. What lies ahead now is no longer a bear market pit but a new peak. Even if the road is not smooth, hope is in sight.