So, for a re-cap for the new people joining here: where are we at with Bitcoin? Well, if you haven't noticed yet, Bitcoin is CHANNELING. Yes! yes, it is. It doesn't quite look like it on the hour scale, but we can definitely see the support lines on the . We targeted that yellow line right there for drop, and it surely enough hit it, but it just took a different path than expected. But as I review a lot of the coins in the market, I see this exact same channeling pattern. And I'm here to game the system.
So we've completed this C wave on this sharp formation. I finished 5 waves down and we are already rebounding up nicely. The daily candle should CLOSE right around or above this white support line for the channel. We knew that yesterday, and that's why we didn't panic, right?
So we know we're obeying our guideline of alternation right now. The first was flat, this one was sharp, so the next one is likely to be a complicated in our WXYXZ formation. So the current sentiment in the market is still with a nice little feather of hope. People are already buying back and we are in very oversold regions that are likely to take us up to our X target at the top of this channel. That is where i am planning my next exit, because the market sentiment is just too for us to break that resistance line. Is the overall long-term sentiment still bullish? Yes! Surprisingly yes!
So what I decided to do was change the EMAs from 100 and 200 day EMAs to fib numbers at 144 and 233 and it makes SO MUCH more sense. Look at where the candles are now! They're finding support right at the 144 and we are likely to continue to bounce off of it. That's where our current moving support is. So now, IF we go below that line, then we also have a secondary support at the 233 , where I do not think there is a chance we close below that. I think that that is our ultimate support. We won't close below that until we finish our 5th cycle wave. All we just finished was our 3rd. The WHOLE market is on their 4th wave (or 2nd). That's why we have this short-term bear market.
Now let me give you all a peace of mind:
1) Bitcoin is NOT going to hit $1000. HAHAHA. I thought that was ridiculous when I saw articles saying that. We would have to get a coordination from the 5 MAJOR crypto countries' governments to all ban trading. That will NOT happen lol.
2) 61.8% drops happen all the time in the market. It's our golden ratio, and our best support. Bitcoin is no different the rest. Bitcoin is not invincible. But corrections are healthy. We are finally seeing our actual value come back to the market. You guys can't lie to yourselves thinking Bitcoin was properly valued at 20k. Along with those other altcoins that grew like crazy. Those growth rates aren't sustainable, and these corrections are very good things that the market needs.
3) The Market always comes back. This market has built a stamp and will continue to stay. You can't stop it, it's world wide. The Stock Market has seen its fair share of crashes (and will likely see another in the next year or 2, maybe even next few months) and they are a part of the game. I'm sorry to break the news, but corrections and crashes are inevitable. They have to happen. But look at what happens after they occur? The market rebounds and goes higher.
4) South Korea and China are just playing with us. Remember in September when China caused the price to go down? And then NEO came out, and the price of Bitcoin jumped nearly 6 times the value after that crash? Is this moment any different? Look at where NEO just got to. $200. RIGHT before this second crash. Can any body say market manipulation for empowerment? LOL. C'mon y'all. That one is pretty easy to spot.
6) Back to #1. LOL, guys my lowest of the lows on your is like $5,800 at the LOW. I don't think we break that $7k threshold at all. But that is my opinion, backed with technical analysis and market sentiment.
Again, I would like to repeat this for all who haven't been following me. During this correctional period, this is what I recommend:
Traders: 40-50% Cash allocation (YES, you will thank me later) and 15-25% Bitcoin Allocation.
Investors: 15-25% Cash Allocation and 20% Bitcoin allocation
This will allow you all to take great advantage of these low altcoin prices that take a super jump when hitting these crazy lows. Remember, uptrends need corrections to, and so do downtrends. Things that are fundamentally strong will always have buyers, and will have limits to the velocity in which they drop (NOT Bitconnect LOL). Having these cash positions and exposure to Bitcoin during these correctional periods will make you a KILLING if you use your indicators properly and stay patient.
I didn't stay as patient as I wanted to yesterday. I returned back to school and my other commitments and I had to pull the trigger sooner than I wanted to because I didn't know if I'd be back to buy in at the right time. That was an opportunity cost I was willing to take. Even though, I'm down a little now, I'll mark my targets and take my profit.
Stay with me guys. We wont always be perfectly right, but we'll manage our risk and play the best positions that we can.
Also, remember that this is the daily chart, we can go lower with the wicks, but where we close is important. Good Luck!
Alright guys, so I'm going to cover this bull run step by step along the way. We've exploded back up and I think the market will see a decent pull back here soon. There are 5 coins that i will ONLY focus on (unless requested) for this period, which include Ripple, Verge, Reddcoin, BCH and Bitcoin as those have seen the most gains, and/or are the most influential in this moment. Ripple Verge and Reddcoin have exploded to as much as 80% gains from there lows, and I would to begin to take some profit and look for re-entry areas.
So for Bitcoin, I'm seeing us test this 21 3hr EMA and I still think that we have some juice to push up to the 55 EMA, so that is my bull case for this scenario to play out. BUT, this could very well be the end of this run and we may be stopping here, which would be our bear case. If Bitcoin continues to test this 21 EMA without pushing up in the short-term, then I may take some profits here and look for re-entry within or even below that green box.
I would like to start switching up my approaches for my analysis to give more than 1 scenario, as during correctional periods can often mislead you. I was pretty bullish before on some coins, but I have to take a step back and realize that things may not move on until Bitcoin is really done correcting, and I'm not convinced that this correction is done. So updates will surely be coming for BCH, Ripple, Verge and Reddcoin soon.
Remember, these are short-term trades that may not be suitable for the investor. But as an investor, I think having cash during this time is very important, so you can build yourself some nice averages in your costs in case things go the wrong way.
Goldman Sachs. Now, I could really go into depth here and talk deeply about equity, the balance sheet, international business and all of that fun stuff. But I'm going to keep it very simple. Goldman Sachs Market Cap is just around $97 B. Like we said, it's considered too big to fail. Now, lets consider Bitcoin as a world bank. Even though Goldman is interconnected through many countries, let's say its a domestic bank, to only America. Just to make our case stronger.
So, now, let's say Bitcoin represents 6 continents (because nothing is in Antarctica, but ice and happy feet). So, we're going to be VERY strict (as in requiring a larger market cap) and state that in order to be a "world bank," it needs to be 6 times larger than the size of Goldman Sachs. Which would roughly be $600B. Well... Bitcoin has already nearly approached $400B (or so) in market cap and is currently sitting around $200B. We're getting to the point where Bitcoin is beginning to make too much of an impression on world economies for it to "fail." But we aren't there yet.
Failure does not mean an absence of crashes and price drops. Failure means a default in value. 0. You can argue that Goldman is backed by tangible assets, and Bitcoin is not. But theoretically, what are Goldman's primary assets? Dollars.. Right?
Well. What is the dollar backed by? The "faith" of the US Government. Is "faith" tangible? Well, I would have to say no. No one trusted paper currency when it was released, initially. I see the same thing here. Though, (keep in mind) that nearly 80-90% of world currencies have diminished since the beginning of their introduction. Could Bitcoin eventually fail? Maybe so, but so could the Dollar, the Euro, the Yen, Yuan and so on. But I believe that we are far from that, and innovative enough to create solutions far before those events take place. It will be an interesting ride with this one. And I am here for it.
Anyways, here is a short term look at Bitcoin. There are two alternate wave counts here. If you're bearish on this momentum, then you could target that green box.
Personally, I think we have a nice 30 minute support at the 55 EMA, with enough room to leverage ourselves out of this triangle to that green box.
I think there is a 55% chance is goes north and a 45% chance it goes south. Very close odds. If it falls through the support, then this is likely to be it for the run.
Bitcoin falls from support. Bears win this round. I would probably target the lower half of that green box IF everything still looks good on all timeframes. In the 15 minute scale, we're pretty oversold, so I'm expecting to exit on the bounce here. All coins are probably done with their runs for the next day or to if this is it with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Morning Update:
So Bitcoin has returned to this right triangle look. In my opinion it is not likely for Bitcoin to pass this resistance line. I think we fall back into the green box. But please be careful on buying back! If the .618 support line fails, then we could head back down to 9k again. There is still the chance that Bitcoin passes this resistance line, but it is not likely. I will not be buying in this triangle. If I see it break through with volume, then I will likely just buy into strength. Good Luck!
Bitcoin Morning Update:
A few things to say here. So yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the triangle and found some resistance at this level. Which is pretty understandable, because we see all 3 EMAs trying to crossover. I think we stay up here around this level for a day or two trying to break through the EMAs. But be careful. We may see a drop there.
On the Bigger scale, I think our target still holds (around the high 14k to low 15k area). But notice the bearish divergence on the daily chart. I have reason to believe that this thing will come down again, and test new lows 2 more times until we get a bullish divergence on RSI. So the two yellow lines at the bottom indicate two targets for the first drop. The higher one is where I think the candle could close, and the lower one is where I think the wick can go. So placing a buy order around the 8k level is definitely of my interest.
So, I think Bitcoin may stay sideways or even drop lower for the next day or two. BUT, if we can stick the wick through all 3 EMAs and possible close over them, then that is definitely a good sign for a continuation of the uptrend. That's all from me. Good luck!
Wow, so we actually hit the $13,055 target spot on with the wick. uhhh BOOM!!
Anyways, I want to give this look as a possibility of what we may see. All I did was draw a parallel line from the top line resistance and attach it to the bottom candle to form a support line for a nice channel. As you see to the left, we've channeled before on the X wave, so its nothing new. So far, this channel is working nicely as a support.
I also want to give this example of an alternate wave count. Rather than this being an ABCD formation, this could very well just be an AB formation. Meaning we have a long way to go up. OR, we just have ONE more C wave up for an ABC rather than an ABCDE. Say we hit about $17,000. That would NOT make me think these are impulse waves, and would NOT make me bullish on Bitcoin for the next couple of weeks. BUT, if we do hit $17,000 or even more, then our correction targets would be very different. If that happens, I think we would aim for a correction heading towards the low 10k or maybe high 9k area rather than the low 8k area. We'll continue to play by ear, but I'm definitely still bullish for the continuation of this X wave despite this drop.
Ooooh. Not a good sign guys. Broke the support line and is in somewhat of an expanding wedge right now (that may be broken). Not sure if that blue support line holds. I think based off of that bearish divergence on the 3 hour RSI its possible we hit the 9k line again. Too much bearishness in the market for me to see this being a good day. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm not re-entering until I see a bullish divergence on RSI. We have support at the 30 RSI line, so its possible if we reach that low that I will re-enter.
Interesting apex approaching here. Two scenarios. I think we have a descending wedge with some market bullishness implied. If the descending wedge forms, then we can expect a very nice bounce from there, with the lower half the green box as the entry lane. Now, if we gain support at the white line, then I think its best to wait to see which way Bitcoin breaks through.
There is no rush here. As the market takes a break, we should take a break as well. Tomorrow may be very boring, but tomorrow night or the following day, we should be finding some answers.
2 Updates coming back to back. But I have this very bad feeling for some reason. For some reason I think we may see another drop here soon. Nevertheless, Bitcoin is currently in an ascending wedge and we're highly likely to see a drop at least near that bull-entry target box one the wedge completes.
But, if you're super bearish, keep that bear-target in mind. On the daily scale, we're pretty much bouncing off of and sticking the wick through the 133 EMA. It is possible that if we close below it, then we can head to our 244 EMA right at the .618 level. I'm going to be very cautious here as I watch Bitcoin the next few days. I'm sure it'll be fine, but I want to keep these scenario in mind.
So this is what I see if you just take the daily closes from each candle. I don't think it looks pretty, or is likely to happen, but I think its a possible formation we could look at. Each white line is a line of support, along with the EMAs.
Also, look at the daily RSI throughout the year. It's bounced off of 30 about 3 times. This being a cycle wave 4, I would be very surprised if we don't get there or lower while the correction lasts for a longer period.
I'm just simply using indicators here to lead me to my conclusions, rather than wave count.
I also see many bullish scenarios that are developing as well. Many triangles forming and apexes coming to their end. We'll see if we find support at these levels, but patience is key here. Market is slow and not much activity will be seen until the market makes a decision.
I also see some indication of bullishness around the market, but at the same time, I see many bear scenarios as well. I'm ready to buy on an uptrend, but a lot of my money is out of the market. There's plenty of money sitting waiting to re-enter this market, but they need confirmation of positive motives before they buy into this shaky level we're at.
What we do need to consider is volume. Surprisingly the CBOE Bitcoin Futures trading volume is considerably higher than CME's. So, in my opinion, it's possible that whatever happens, does not happen to the extremity of the trading volume and price velocity that we saw last week. Tomorrow will be interesting, but don't be quick to make your decision before the market makes its own. Follow the market and you will win. Try to lead the market and you will lose.
I really hate post on post after faild first TA