Although we do not have many
BTC
bear markets to backtest, we do have 2 that we can review. If we are following the 4 year cycle like many have referenced, then here is what you can expect for the rest of this year.
When we get 300ish days out from the halving, we always see
BTC
decline quickly by 50ish % or or decline for months going into the halving date.
This always happens after a big rally. The pre-halving rally.
In the past we've seen humongous rallies the 2023 rally has nothing on 18 and 15 pre halving rallies.
If we use this history as a guide, expect a reversal soon. We follow the overall trend of risk assets. We just don't see btc react to every single move.. But the trend is the same when we look at the weekly or monthly.
There are many reasons to be bearish and here is why we can expect BTC to start testing lower in this channel.
1. XRP news did not give BTC the firepower to break 32k.
2. Stocks are breaking out last few weeks and yet
BTC
is stuck in the 30/31.5k range.
3. ETF news on blackrock and etc did not give BTC the firepower to break 32k.
4. As the markets were rising, BTC was declining. Today the markets declined and BTC followed.
5. Low volume.. Bearish divergence on weekly RSI + Volume is diverging as well.
6. We have been in an uptrend for almost 9 months now. Nothing goes up forever.
7. Macro economics are not good. The market flips one week to the next if the data is not bullish. Today it was the jobs report, netflix and tesla that started a reversal. Only question is, what happens with the rest of earnings.
8. Gensler is not going to just bend over on XRP. He will likely appeal and continue attacking crypto.
9. I wouldn't be surprised if they do not approve the BTC etf and create more reasons to decline.
10. With stocks like NVIDIA having a 13% decline in revenue, yet at ATH, this is not the start of a bull.. Its still a bear market rally and irrational thinking is abundant. This is a FOMO rally.
11. Yield inversion is real and this is the worse we've seen.
12. Lastly, QT and QE. We had huge gains when we had lose fiscal conditions via the Fed. now we have the opposite yet we think well have a similar outcome? With a high fed funds rate + QT , decline in m2 and balance sheet, we can easily expect the opposite to happen.
I see no reason to be bullish, although we have many reason to be. The reactions on bullish narratives tell me there is no new liquidity or entrants to continue an uptrend from here.
My focus for a bottom is not a price point.. My entry will be when the stock market bottoms and BTC/ALTS start forming a bottom pattern on charts.
This is where we will accumulate. I have no idea if thats 17k bitcoin or 8k bitcoin. It doesnt matter. Timing our entry is what matters.
BTC
bear markets to backtest, we do have 2 that we can review. If we are following the 4 year cycle like many have referenced, then here is what you can expect for the rest of this year. When we get 300ish days out from the halving, we always see
BTC
decline quickly by 50ish % or or decline for months going into the halving date. This always happens after a big rally. The pre-halving rally.
In the past we've seen humongous rallies the 2023 rally has nothing on 18 and 15 pre halving rallies.
If we use this history as a guide, expect a reversal soon. We follow the overall trend of risk assets. We just don't see btc react to every single move.. But the trend is the same when we look at the weekly or monthly.
There are many reasons to be bearish and here is why we can expect BTC to start testing lower in this channel.
1. XRP news did not give BTC the firepower to break 32k.
2. Stocks are breaking out last few weeks and yet
BTC
is stuck in the 30/31.5k range. 3. ETF news on blackrock and etc did not give BTC the firepower to break 32k.
4. As the markets were rising, BTC was declining. Today the markets declined and BTC followed.
5. Low volume.. Bearish divergence on weekly RSI + Volume is diverging as well.
6. We have been in an uptrend for almost 9 months now. Nothing goes up forever.
7. Macro economics are not good. The market flips one week to the next if the data is not bullish. Today it was the jobs report, netflix and tesla that started a reversal. Only question is, what happens with the rest of earnings.
8. Gensler is not going to just bend over on XRP. He will likely appeal and continue attacking crypto.
9. I wouldn't be surprised if they do not approve the BTC etf and create more reasons to decline.
10. With stocks like NVIDIA having a 13% decline in revenue, yet at ATH, this is not the start of a bull.. Its still a bear market rally and irrational thinking is abundant. This is a FOMO rally.
11. Yield inversion is real and this is the worse we've seen.
12. Lastly, QT and QE. We had huge gains when we had lose fiscal conditions via the Fed. now we have the opposite yet we think well have a similar outcome? With a high fed funds rate + QT , decline in m2 and balance sheet, we can easily expect the opposite to happen.
I see no reason to be bullish, although we have many reason to be. The reactions on bullish narratives tell me there is no new liquidity or entrants to continue an uptrend from here.
My focus for a bottom is not a price point.. My entry will be when the stock market bottoms and BTC/ALTS start forming a bottom pattern on charts.
This is where we will accumulate. I have no idea if thats 17k bitcoin or 8k bitcoin. It doesnt matter. Timing our entry is what matters.