I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “I have an order set at $6,389 to open a short if/when the price falls below $6,400 support. Until then we wait.” / No trade zone = $6,400 - $6,700
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,655 | S: $6,524
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up and challenging the 50 MA right now.
Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.0342%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Have made a bullish crossover but failed to support price. Will be interesting to see if we close above those EMA’s.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 starting to act as clean resistance | 128: -2.32%
Volume: Last couple days have started to pick back up after dip on the 6th' and 7th.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,600 | 0.5 = $6,759 | 0.382 = $6,918
Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man forming. Weekly dojis. Pulling back from 12h shooting star.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is being squeezed in between Kijun-Sen and Tenken-Sen on daily. Fell out of 12h cloud and now it is becoming resistance. 4h cloud is bullish but appears to have an upcoming kumo twist.
TD’ Sequential: Bouncing off a 4h & 1h R9. 12h has R2 = R1. Daily G6.
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,800 - $7,250 is primed for a bull trap. Gap in volume at $5,000 is begging to get filled.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.87% | 24h: -0.52% | 1w: +1.57% | 2w: -1.33% | 1m: +5.75%
Bollinger Bands: Got closed to testing bottom daily band. Will be interested to see if we close below the MA.
Trendline: Drawn on chart. Current bounce came almost perfectly off the green trendline that I pointed out as the key area of support in yesterday’s post.
Daily Trend: Chop that is favoring the bears.
Fractals: New fractal printed yesterday at $6,516 and was almost immediately violated. A close below that number should cause bearish momentum to increase.
On Balance Volume: Trending down after breaking down from it’s triangle.
ADX: Continues to make new lows.
Chaikin Money Flow: Trying to breakthrough 0.2 with c&h type pattern. I don’t think it will happen.
RSI (14 setting): Broke up from triangle and supported retest, however now it appears to be turning over. Watching for new low on daily chart below 49.95.
Stoch: Making bearish recross and forming lower high
Summary: Watch for resistance under $6,650 where horizontal resistance meets the trendline. If bulls breakthrough that area then we should retest the top of the descending triangle for the first time since July.
Also watch for a new low on the 4 hour chart (below $6,480). If breaks breakdown that area of support then I expect the selling momentum to increase significantly. I still have an order set to short at $6,389 and I would move that up to $6,474 if that wasn’t in my no trade zone.
The market feels like it is ready to make a significant move more than ever before (in my experience). I remain confident that it will be to the downside. The main reason that I do not believe this is the bottom is because every on Twitter and Reddit thinks that this is the bottom. Overwhelming exuberance on social media is exactly what I like to counter trade. Maybe they are all right and I am wrong, only time will tell.
Tether (USDT') is showing some signs of cracking. The premium between USD and USDT' exchanges is at a 9 month high.
USD Exchanges | Coinbase: $6,541 | Bitstamp: $6,539 | Gemini: $6,538 | Kraken: $6,540 | Average: $6,539.50
USDT' Exchanges | Binance: $6,638 | Poloniex: $6,638 | Bitfinex: $6,638 | Average: $6,638 | Premium = 1.51%
On Kraken the USDT:USD pair is down 1.55% in the last month and looks like it has much further to go.
That chart has me seriously considering shorting Tether', however I don’t want to have my funds tied up for when BTC' makes it’s move. If you have money on the sidelines then I would be very careful about holding it in USDT or another ‘stable coin’.
I have personally spread out my funds across three exchanges and would recommend the same.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “I have an order set at $6,389 to open a short if/when the price falls below $6,400 support. Until then we wait.” / No trade zone = $6,400 - $6,700
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,655 | S: $6,524
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up and challenging the 50 MA right now.
Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.0342%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Have made a bullish crossover but failed to support price. Will be interesting to see if we close above those EMA’s.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 starting to act as clean resistance | 128: -2.32%
Volume: Last couple days have started to pick back up after dip on the 6th' and 7th.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,600 | 0.5 = $6,759 | 0.382 = $6,918
Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man forming. Weekly dojis. Pulling back from 12h shooting star.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is being squeezed in between Kijun-Sen and Tenken-Sen on daily. Fell out of 12h cloud and now it is becoming resistance. 4h cloud is bullish but appears to have an upcoming kumo twist.
TD’ Sequential: Bouncing off a 4h & 1h R9. 12h has R2 = R1. Daily G6.
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,800 - $7,250 is primed for a bull trap. Gap in volume at $5,000 is begging to get filled.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.87% | 24h: -0.52% | 1w: +1.57% | 2w: -1.33% | 1m: +5.75%
Bollinger Bands: Got closed to testing bottom daily band. Will be interested to see if we close below the MA.
Trendline: Drawn on chart. Current bounce came almost perfectly off the green trendline that I pointed out as the key area of support in yesterday’s post.
Daily Trend: Chop that is favoring the bears.
Fractals: New fractal printed yesterday at $6,516 and was almost immediately violated. A close below that number should cause bearish momentum to increase.
On Balance Volume: Trending down after breaking down from it’s triangle.
ADX: Continues to make new lows.
Chaikin Money Flow: Trying to breakthrough 0.2 with c&h type pattern. I don’t think it will happen.
RSI (14 setting): Broke up from triangle and supported retest, however now it appears to be turning over. Watching for new low on daily chart below 49.95.
Stoch: Making bearish recross and forming lower high
Summary: Watch for resistance under $6,650 where horizontal resistance meets the trendline. If bulls breakthrough that area then we should retest the top of the descending triangle for the first time since July.
Also watch for a new low on the 4 hour chart (below $6,480). If breaks breakdown that area of support then I expect the selling momentum to increase significantly. I still have an order set to short at $6,389 and I would move that up to $6,474 if that wasn’t in my no trade zone.
The market feels like it is ready to make a significant move more than ever before (in my experience). I remain confident that it will be to the downside. The main reason that I do not believe this is the bottom is because every on Twitter and Reddit thinks that this is the bottom. Overwhelming exuberance on social media is exactly what I like to counter trade. Maybe they are all right and I am wrong, only time will tell.
Tether (USDT') is showing some signs of cracking. The premium between USD and USDT' exchanges is at a 9 month high.
USD Exchanges | Coinbase: $6,541 | Bitstamp: $6,539 | Gemini: $6,538 | Kraken: $6,540 | Average: $6,539.50
USDT' Exchanges | Binance: $6,638 | Poloniex: $6,638 | Bitfinex: $6,638 | Average: $6,638 | Premium = 1.51%
On Kraken the USDT:USD pair is down 1.55% in the last month and looks like it has much further to go.
That chart has me seriously considering shorting Tether', however I don’t want to have my funds tied up for when BTC' makes it’s move. If you have money on the sidelines then I would be very careful about holding it in USDT or another ‘stable coin’.
I have personally spread out my funds across three exchanges and would recommend the same.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/