Double top, lower high on hourly, top of descending channel
Due to the tough trading range that btc has been in and its unpredictable behavior, I've kept up trying to figure out likely scenarios on price movement but am reticent to graph this thing when my analysis itself of it is fluctuating wildly.
I am currently bearish on bitcoin. Very bearish. I was, however, really expecting a short but powerful move to the upper 30s first. That has not happened yet and price continues to look weak. I find myself in a situation where being in a long concerns me; simultaneously I am not yet ready to short, so I've simply withdrawn from the market until I find a better spot.
The solid orange line is a weekly close zone that btc has currently formed a double top at on the hourly. The two solid red lines are monthly close zones. What I currently see is a descending channel from which btc is at the top of and either breaks upward from here or travels back downward again. The double top has me leaning toward the latter.
If we fall back to the upper 1/3rd of the channel or about a .618 retrace of this swing low to high, I may throw in a small long with the expectation of moving back up again and breaking 35, maybe 36k before going back down. My previous idea of btc moving all the way back up to the .786 of the previous swing high to low on the daily from last month at 38.5k is soon to be invalidated if we cannot make a strong break of both 35.6 and 36.4k. I may enter a temporary short at the current level or I may wait for a while yet for a clearer signal of when price truly begins to capitulate. The truth is we have been consolidating and going up for 4 days now and yesterday's candle was bullish engulfing and also closed above the July 6th/7th close/open, denoting further upside to come.
So whether you are short or long right now, you better know what you are doing. Bitcoin is capable of destroying souls.
I am currently bearish on bitcoin. Very bearish. I was, however, really expecting a short but powerful move to the upper 30s first. That has not happened yet and price continues to look weak. I find myself in a situation where being in a long concerns me; simultaneously I am not yet ready to short, so I've simply withdrawn from the market until I find a better spot.
The solid orange line is a weekly close zone that btc has currently formed a double top at on the hourly. The two solid red lines are monthly close zones. What I currently see is a descending channel from which btc is at the top of and either breaks upward from here or travels back downward again. The double top has me leaning toward the latter.
If we fall back to the upper 1/3rd of the channel or about a .618 retrace of this swing low to high, I may throw in a small long with the expectation of moving back up again and breaking 35, maybe 36k before going back down. My previous idea of btc moving all the way back up to the .786 of the previous swing high to low on the daily from last month at 38.5k is soon to be invalidated if we cannot make a strong break of both 35.6 and 36.4k. I may enter a temporary short at the current level or I may wait for a while yet for a clearer signal of when price truly begins to capitulate. The truth is we have been consolidating and going up for 4 days now and yesterday's candle was bullish engulfing and also closed above the July 6th/7th close/open, denoting further upside to come.
So whether you are short or long right now, you better know what you are doing. Bitcoin is capable of destroying souls.
Comment:
Price is contracting in a strong-looking bull flag on the hourly (when was the last time we saw one of those?) and while the last 4hr closed red it is within the body of the previous candle. If it had turned out to be a bearish engulfing I was going short upon the retest of the previous candle's open. But as it stands with yesterday's candle as a bullish engulfing closing over key resistance it is more likely we will break upward from this descending channel without much retracement. Expecting enough rocket fuel for a move to 35.6k if we just jump up and fly from here.
Comment:
Aaaaaand we're breaking downward.
Looks like the double top was a good signal after all.
Wake me up when btc hits 22k. I'm so tired of these traps that I will sleep until then.
Looks like the double top was a good signal after all.
Wake me up when btc hits 22k. I'm so tired of these traps that I will sleep until then.