AponSOKS1978

Rounding Top idea for $BTC

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
***NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE***
***THIS IS A PERSONAL IDEA, DYOR***

Could this be a Rounding Top pattern???

Note: Bulkowski describes the "Rounding Top" pattern in his Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, page 608, as an upward breakout, indicating: "As prices move up, they curve around then break upward". He also mentions a downward volume trend as a sign of this pattern.

This daily chart shows BitCoin $BTC describing a move that starts at the last days of January 2021 with higher highs (HH) that describe a curved geometry, rounded on the top. Inversely volume is doing the opposite to price and also shows decrease in volume (see Bulkowski note above). Between march 25th and april 21st Divergence indicator signals a bearish div on the Volume-weighted MACD (VWMACD) and Chaikin Money Flow ( CMF ) (see the yellow tag). This divergence is not clearly corrected yet.


I'm speculating on 2 possible bullish ideas:

The first one is based on a possible ascending trendline starting from mid December LL making a second touch on end of January's LL and that could be confirmed if price action bounces off for a third touch when hitting the 50K support level and if it fails to break down. This could start an uptrend to +78K in short term for Measured Move A.

The second one is based on the chance that if price action breaks below the 50K all the way down to the 45K support level we might see an even bigger uptrend, all the way to the +90K level in mid term for Measured Move B.
Let's remember that the weekly 21EMA sits at 45K atm.

Bearish outcomes can be possible. We've heard people talk about a different scenario playing out if price action breaks the 21 weekly EMA marking the end of Bitcoins bullrun.

Let's see what plays out...
As always DYOR.

Comments

You got it perfectly!
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@blitzbit thanks man. Sadly for some, but healthy for the long run. I hadn't updated this idea but the 2 bullish outcomes were invalidated because it actually DID turn out to be a rounding top. According to that, a bearish outcome may still be in play but I'll draw that up when I get my computer back online.
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blitzbit AponSOKS1978
@AponSOKS1978, I was that close to sell all at 63k, but continued believing the hype of 100k+.
Now we have the opposite question - whether 30k is the bottom.
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That's a grim sight and It is worrying that it has been developing just as you drew it. Need to be very careful and consider that prediction for any trades.
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You're the man. GREAT analysis.
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@pcsrvc, honored bro. Coming from you...
+1 Reply