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Bitcoin week 22/2022, journal #1

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
May 25/2022;

The court case in which two Russian residents extorted more than 55 million rubles (nearly $1 million) in digital assets and 5 million rubles (almost $90,000) in cash from a man has resulted in a passive acceptance of crypto as a means of payment. The St. Petersburg City Court has approved cryptocurrencies as a form of payment, according to Russian business news portal RBC. When defending a client or the state, prosecutors typically look to court judgements first, but the Moscow government has yet to decide on Bitcoin's legal status.

May 26/2022;

The put-to-call ratio on the Bitcoin options market has reached 0.72, according to Bloomberg, the highest in a year. Josh Olszewicz, head of research at Valkyrie Investments, believes the present macroeconomic sentiment is to blame for the developing bearishness. Because of the US Federal Reserve's hawkish approach, which was intended to manage extremely high inflation, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies failed to achieve lofty price goals in 2021. Bitcoin and equities both fell below $28,000 earlier today before reclaiming some ground.

The Fed will most likely cut interest rates in 2023, according to Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, who spoke to CNBC earlier today. Fears of a recession would force the Fed to change course. The central bank raised interest rates for the first time in 22 years earlier this month. Given Bitcoin's lack of experience with interest rate hikes, some believe that its performance in such a scenario may be disappointing.

Energy firms, together with traditional financial institutions, will drive the next Bitcoin bull run, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, a community-driven blockchain data analytics platform.Even as officials around the world continue to implement legislation aimed at regulating the crypto mining sector, the analyst broke out his predictions in a series of Tweets."The first change we'll notice is that the bitcoin network will be powered by solar and wind energy, which has recently become the most cost-effective source of electricity." On Monday, Young wrote.

Blockstream and Jack Dorsey's Block joined up with Tesla to build a solar and battery-powered Bitcoin mining farm in Texas only last month. The plant will use 100 percent renewable energy to fuel bitcoin mining, which is expected to boost BTC's synergy with renewables. Companies like Lancium, a Houston-based IT firm, are already constructing facilities that aim to use renewable energy to power their bitcoin mining operations.

May 27/2022;

Due to risk-off sentiment taking center stage, Ethereum has lost more than 22% against its biggest opponent since the beginning of the year. During bull markets, altcoins typically outperform Bitcoin, but during down markets, investors tend to migrate to safer and more established assets, resulting in significantly sharper falls. Bitcoin's market share has increased by 46% as a result of Ethereum's steep decrease. Its chart has recently invalidated the bearish divergence, as reported by trader Scott Melker, indicating that altcoins will likely continue to underperform.

However, in such a situation, Bitcoin is far from a safe haven. Since the start of the year, the largest cryptocurrency has lost 57.90 percent of its value. The Ethereum Beacon Chain underwent a seven-block deep redesign, which might combine with the main proof-of-work chain as early as August, according to co-founder Vitalik Buterin. The event was blamed on a "non-trivial segmentation" rather than a fundamental problem in the proof-of-stake chain, according to the developers. The Beacon Chain, which introduced native staking, was released in late December. One of the primary bearish triggers is the upcoming monthly options expiry, which is set to take place this Friday, with bears hoping to cash in on the opportunity.

The Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF) revealed new data on global Bitcoin mining that shows the industry is growing, but it was the return of mining statistics in Mainland China that grabbed experts' interest.Following the government's decision to outlaw Bitcoin mining activities, Bitcoin mining in China has dropped off the leaderboard in the previous edition of the CCAF report. Mining businesses have gone for Kazakhstan, while others have traveled to Canada and the United States.

The University of Cambridge's Judge Business School claims that Chinese miners simply vanished off the grid without leaving the country. Instead, they used VPNs and proxy devices to obscure their digital traces, making it impossible for authorities to track them down.According to a report by Judge Business School, "after the ban has taken hold and time has passed, it appears that underground miners have grown more confident and seem pleased with the protection given by local proxy services." "Access to off-grid electricity and geographically dispersed, small-scale operations are two of the most common methods underground miners utilize to keep their activities hidden from authorities and avoid the ban."

May 28/2022;

The crypto market appears to be due for a comeback after a seven-month-long severe market sell-off, according to pundits.After BTC plummeted below $50,000 in late December, the crypto-verse was awash with predictions that the market was about to enter a crypto winter. The market has been on a hemorrhage in the months since, culminating in last week's unprecedented sell-off, with the whole cryptocurrency market tumbling to ten-month lows.

However, pundits have speculated that the crypto winter may be over, citing significant liquidations, particularly after last week's dump, which was exacerbated by the stablecoin meltdown.Yves Lamoureux, commonly known as the "Canadian Whale," has boldly advocated for a new "consequential bull market" in a recent post, according to Yahoo. If all goes well, the pundit, who also runs the Lamoureux & Co. macroeconomic research firm in the United States, believes the recent capitulation by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would be enough to boost prices to all-time highs."Extremely negative attitude from crypto holders," Lamoureux tweeted, "exactly as we've seen at prior bottoms."

May 30/20222;

In the daily and weekly time frames, Bitcoin has become bullish, but the price movement has yet to catch up with this trend reversal. During the week of May 23-30, Bitcoin formed another modest bearish candlestick. This was the ninth straight bearish weekly candlestick since the week of March 28-April 5. A long-term ascending parallel channel was also broken as a result of this.Despite this, the price has failed to go below its low of $26,700 set on May 12th.

Currently, the price is hovering slightly above the 0.618 Fib retracement support level of $28,700. BTC has fallen below the horizontal support of $30,000, despite the fact that this is a critical Fib support level. As a result, unless the price falls below $20,000, there is no further horizontal support.The weekly RSI is currently at 34, which is worth noting. This is the same value as the crash in March 2020. The only time the RSI has produced a lower reading since 2017 was during the December 2018 bottom of $3,300.

Overall, the weekly chart appears to be inconclusive. The RSI has hit levels typically linked with bottoms, and the price is trading above Fib support, which is positive. The price has broken down from an ascending parallel channel and horizontal support region on the negative side. Price action is bearish, yet the RSI is bullish. The weekly overview, in which the price has broken down from a horizontal support level, is supported by the daily chart. The horizontal level that has now converted to resistance in this time frame is $30,500.

Despite this, the daily RSI remains very bullish. To begin with, it has created a significant bullish divergence, which generally precedes bullish trend reversals. Furthermore, the indicator has broken free from a downward trendline . The next closest resistance area for BTC if this event triggers an upward rise is between $37,500 and $40,000. The 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement resistance area is the target range. As a result, the daily chart is slightly bullisher than the weekly chart. The RSI is firmly positive, despite the fact that the price is trading below horizontal resistance.

Analysis of the BTC wave count; The long-term count backs up the weekly RSI readings, which indicate that BTC is nearing or has already reached a bottom. It means the price has finished wave four of a five-wave long-term upward rise that started in December 2018.

Written by neotrader

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