Hi guys, wanted to give a quick update as I am seeing several things that are currently changing my mind on the short-term movement of Bitcoin.
As you know, I have been very bearish the past 2 weeks and called for a short around $8,700. I was convinced we would get to at least the 6.2k range until 7.5k failed to break for a third time.
What I’ve noticed is the formation of a double bottom on the 4 hour.
This failure to break 7.5k once again coincides with bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD. Though the price didn’t make a lower low, clearly the indicators are showing bullish momentum picking up.
On top of that, take a look at volume on that last drop down towards 7.5k. The volume was very low and the movement down was extremely weak.
That was not the move I was looking for to confirm a bearish continuation down to 6.2k, I was expecting a sharp sudden move with high volume. We didn’t get that yet, and each time we go to 7.5k, there's just no conviction.
So now my picture has changed a bit, and I think it’s very possible we move up to 8.7k again. However, we need the neckline around 8,100-8,200 to break in order to see that move happen.
This price zone is very strong and the bears are defending it quite well.
If we cannot break that resistance zone above, then price must just range for a bit before we get a better idea of where the price is going.
Also, just to be clear, I am still bearish overall on Bitcoin as we have many bearish signs on the higher time frames. Since this analysis is being done on the 4 hour time frame, it is suggesting a short-term move up then back down as long as the bearish sentiment is still intact. If we do get a move up (especially back towards the highs), I will re-assess things at that level and see if my overall bigger picture is compromised at all.
Thanks for reading, please like if you found this idea useful!
As you know, I have been very bearish the past 2 weeks and called for a short around $8,700. I was convinced we would get to at least the 6.2k range until 7.5k failed to break for a third time.
What I’ve noticed is the formation of a double bottom on the 4 hour.
This failure to break 7.5k once again coincides with bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD. Though the price didn’t make a lower low, clearly the indicators are showing bullish momentum picking up.
On top of that, take a look at volume on that last drop down towards 7.5k. The volume was very low and the movement down was extremely weak.
That was not the move I was looking for to confirm a bearish continuation down to 6.2k, I was expecting a sharp sudden move with high volume. We didn’t get that yet, and each time we go to 7.5k, there's just no conviction.
So now my picture has changed a bit, and I think it’s very possible we move up to 8.7k again. However, we need the neckline around 8,100-8,200 to break in order to see that move happen.
This price zone is very strong and the bears are defending it quite well.
If we cannot break that resistance zone above, then price must just range for a bit before we get a better idea of where the price is going.
Also, just to be clear, I am still bearish overall on Bitcoin as we have many bearish signs on the higher time frames. Since this analysis is being done on the 4 hour time frame, it is suggesting a short-term move up then back down as long as the bearish sentiment is still intact. If we do get a move up (especially back towards the highs), I will re-assess things at that level and see if my overall bigger picture is compromised at all.
Thanks for reading, please like if you found this idea useful!
Comment:
Price should be heading up soon. Bears couldn't break 7,700 and bullish momentum continues to build. But again bulls really need to break 8,150 on their third attempt up there
Comment:
Just as I predicted, price shot up and broke the 8,100. Now let's see how far the bulls can take this. They have resistance at 8,450 but the major resistance is 8,700. I will let my long trade ride until I get signs of bearishness again. I'll update as we get closer.
Thanks for the support guys, and those who haven't, please like this idea!
Thanks for the support guys, and those who haven't, please like this idea!
Comment:
Shorts just moved up a lot after that pump. I'm thinking a lot of folks are seeing a head&shoulders formation. Just wait, we will probably see H&S ideas all over trading view over the next few days. If we see that and shorts continue to climb, it's likely another pump will happen and 8,700 becomes even more possible. But I do not want to guess, I will wait to see how the next few days unfold.
Comment:
Price is now finding support at previous resistance. If this holds, this area is a great spot to add to your longs
Comment:
Things are looking great for this long play and I am already well into profit. $8,450 is next target and then $8,700 if that breaks.
Comment:
Wow! Price just blew past $8,450. Shorts keep piling up like crazy and price just keeps going up (very similar to when price was heading up towards 6k last month). Next major resistance is $8,750. I expect to see some sort of retrace there but I am not closing my longs until it becomes apparent to do so, and I will update if that happens. Hope you are all enjoying your profits so far for those of you who listened to me and went long!
Comment:
Okay looks like Bitcoin needs to cool off a bit.
This is my first target if the price continues to drop:
I am expecting price to hold here but if it's unable to, I will start closing my longs. I want to also point out the fact that Shorts and Longs have both jumped up quite a bit the last few days, but now it appears the longs are dropping while shorts are flying high. If this trend continues, it could set up for a very big short squeeze and see price make a higher high again this week. But with interest being so high on both longs and shorts currently, there will probably be a lot of whiplashing both directions to try and squeeze out traders in both positions. So expect a lot of wicking and honestly I would just stay out of this market right now if you are not currently in a good position from an earlier trade.
Right now I do see a bearish divergence on 4 hr, but if you just scroll left you can see how many times we've seen these bearish divergences mean nothing as the price just continued to climb. With that said, there is a bearish divergence building on the daily time frame which is something I'm keeping an eye on. So if it becomes more apparent that a bigger drop is about to happen, then I'll post a new idea about it. For now, I'm just staying cautious and watching that $8,700-$8,850 region to see how price reacts down there (if it gets there).
This is my first target if the price continues to drop:
Right now I do see a bearish divergence on 4 hr, but if you just scroll left you can see how many times we've seen these bearish divergences mean nothing as the price just continued to climb. With that said, there is a bearish divergence building on the daily time frame which is something I'm keeping an eye on. So if it becomes more apparent that a bigger drop is about to happen, then I'll post a new idea about it. For now, I'm just staying cautious and watching that $8,700-$8,850 region to see how price reacts down there (if it gets there).
Comment:
I decided to take a little bit of profit last night, Still holding on to some longs to see how 8,700/8,850 range holds up but also moved my stop loss up just in case it drops hard. Nothing wrong with taking a little profit while you're ahead!
Trade closed: target reached:
Absolutely perfect trade setup! This is where I opened up most of my longs and I have still been riding almost all of them to this point. Thanks for your support guys :)