Bitcoin Buy Signal!

Background:
We all know about the halving but the misconception is that everyone assumes that it will go up from here. Looking at the charts we still see bearish structures and bearish indicators. And looking at past halvings, we see a pattern of dump, retrace, dump, moon. Taking that into consideration, my bearish scenarios can still playout with a long term bull run following the halving.

One of the fundamental indicators I have been watching closely is the Hash Ribbon indicator. The other day, it triggered a buy signal. Based on previous signals, there is often a dip before the signal plays out with huge gains. This adds more confluence to my previous ideas that we are in for a dump prior to the big rally.

Prior to the previous halving, the price went on a huge rally, then dumped to the 50% fib (wicks extending beyond 61.8%), with another rally right before the halving. Following the halving another dump between the 61.8% fib and 78.6% fib (wicks extending beyond 78.6%). From here, the price rose to the moon.

The first halving also followed a similar pattern to a lesser degree. The price rallied, then dumped to 50% fib, with another rally right before the halving. Following the halving a small price decrease before the price rose to the moon.

Expectations for this idea:

• We top out at the current red box zone, trading at this level up to 1-2 days max.
  
• As early as today, the price starts to dump to the edge of the ascending wedge.
  
• Following some consolidation, a further extension to the 50% fib level (with potential wicks below 61.8% fib)
  
• There is a small rally back to the 23.6% fib prior to the halving.
  
• Following the halving another dump extending to the 78.6% fib level (with potential wicks down below the 100% fib).
  
• This should create a ton of meaningful divergence to kickstart the bull run.
  

This idea will be invalidated if the current rally extends beyond 8k, likely with a further extension to close the CME gap around 9k. It is now or never for the bulls. The bulls have been strong and I believe there is a possibility for the bulls to break the trend with a huge rally in the near future.

Just for reference, the red bar on the Hash Ribbon only indicates that the halving is around the corner.

Thanks for taking the time to read this idea.
If you found it interesting, please support my efforts by leaving your feedback or questions below and upvote this chart.

Cheers!

These ideas are not financial advice.

Trade closed: stop reached