Hey Everyone, I wanted to take this time to break down in greater detail what I see and some areas of interest in a more in depth explanation of how I see BTC today.
As observed in my prior charts, BTC broke it's down trend at the $6,400 intersection of the .618 fib of the years long primary wave leading to this point, the Logarithmic 7 years and running trend line, and the convening point of Gan zones from several meaningful positions in BTC history, and quite frankly the most logical point for a healthy and bullish asset as suggested in Elliot Wave Theory, general market cycle norms, and a very bullish and healthy ecosystem of positive/inviting sentiment.
It can be easy for new entries to the market to get emotional and terrified after the perfectly normal and healthy pull back we just experienced. Moving along, The absolute support at the pink trend line to date which destroyed the all time high of shorts for this down turn of people who failed to read the signals the chart quite clearly displayed to those observant and objective enough to see them. (Yet another contributing factor and signal of a reversal if you research the concept. AKA fear from rookies who fomo'd into the last bull run). Don't worry guys, it happens to lots and lots of people who think they're amazing because they traded trends effectively and allowed themselves to forgo more committed and thoroughly educating themselves. There's a reason even the real pro's have a top success rate of 60% of their positions. It's because they've been around long enough to see unforeseen circumstances and challenging situations. Anyone who thinks they're better than this is far more likely to be simply too inexperienced to know the difference with the exception of the VERY very on earth and are far more likely to be doing things more important that posting here with us pathetic trolls.
Moving along, we can see BTC has remained bound in the light blue rising wedge. We all know this can't last for ever! Short time spans below 4 hour look quite tired with the exception of 1 hour which shows some potential for a little more up in the oscillators. We've formed new trends in timelines all the way up to 1 day in bullish terms.
Lets talk about what reasonable expectations are for the infancy of a bull market. Essentially, Anything above that pink trend line can be considered exceptionally bullish in terms of BTCs historical trend and market norms. With the exception of the yellow “Caution Zone” where this correction cycle could still easilly meander into without reason to panic in a final consolidation and fleecing novice inverters of the last of their money on the table. This is still within the bounds of a healthy large picture trend and could be the extension of this correction as a General cycle “Contracting Wedge, not UN-similar to the MT' Gox Primary wave 2 correction. This I see as General scale and upon further analysis is a mere portion of a wave 3 Primary cycle after counting the waves and researching into perceiving the scale of the market and how it expands at an exponential rate, NOT ADDATIVE!
As seen here, the 4 hour chart gave us a golden cross in the 50/200 MA marked at the bottom of the rising wedge. Similarly we also have 6 hour shortly after. Now, as BTC is a VERY parabolic asset and experiences GIANT speculative price swings on FOMO and hype, I'd not at all be surprised to see a break of this wedge or a continued move up within the larger proposed potential rising wedge seen in gray. This said, I'm not particularly counting on that but I'm certainly prepared for the potential.
I have some areas of interest outlined for potential pivot points moving forward.
1st is the green arrow pointing at the falling wedge at the $9k areas support line. I see a path where a bounce anywhere from our present position to a drop to $9k could result in a move up to retest the $9.8k resistance. As I see as a potential to break to $10.2k from there but wouldn't .....
As observed in my prior charts, BTC broke it's down trend at the $6,400 intersection of the .618 fib of the years long primary wave leading to this point, the Logarithmic 7 years and running trend line, and the convening point of Gan zones from several meaningful positions in BTC history, and quite frankly the most logical point for a healthy and bullish asset as suggested in Elliot Wave Theory, general market cycle norms, and a very bullish and healthy ecosystem of positive/inviting sentiment.
It can be easy for new entries to the market to get emotional and terrified after the perfectly normal and healthy pull back we just experienced. Moving along, The absolute support at the pink trend line to date which destroyed the all time high of shorts for this down turn of people who failed to read the signals the chart quite clearly displayed to those observant and objective enough to see them. (Yet another contributing factor and signal of a reversal if you research the concept. AKA fear from rookies who fomo'd into the last bull run). Don't worry guys, it happens to lots and lots of people who think they're amazing because they traded trends effectively and allowed themselves to forgo more committed and thoroughly educating themselves. There's a reason even the real pro's have a top success rate of 60% of their positions. It's because they've been around long enough to see unforeseen circumstances and challenging situations. Anyone who thinks they're better than this is far more likely to be simply too inexperienced to know the difference with the exception of the VERY very on earth and are far more likely to be doing things more important that posting here with us pathetic trolls.
Moving along, we can see BTC has remained bound in the light blue rising wedge. We all know this can't last for ever! Short time spans below 4 hour look quite tired with the exception of 1 hour which shows some potential for a little more up in the oscillators. We've formed new trends in timelines all the way up to 1 day in bullish terms.
Lets talk about what reasonable expectations are for the infancy of a bull market. Essentially, Anything above that pink trend line can be considered exceptionally bullish in terms of BTCs historical trend and market norms. With the exception of the yellow “Caution Zone” where this correction cycle could still easilly meander into without reason to panic in a final consolidation and fleecing novice inverters of the last of their money on the table. This is still within the bounds of a healthy large picture trend and could be the extension of this correction as a General cycle “Contracting Wedge, not UN-similar to the MT' Gox Primary wave 2 correction. This I see as General scale and upon further analysis is a mere portion of a wave 3 Primary cycle after counting the waves and researching into perceiving the scale of the market and how it expands at an exponential rate, NOT ADDATIVE!
As seen here, the 4 hour chart gave us a golden cross in the 50/200 MA marked at the bottom of the rising wedge. Similarly we also have 6 hour shortly after. Now, as BTC is a VERY parabolic asset and experiences GIANT speculative price swings on FOMO and hype, I'd not at all be surprised to see a break of this wedge or a continued move up within the larger proposed potential rising wedge seen in gray. This said, I'm not particularly counting on that but I'm certainly prepared for the potential.
I have some areas of interest outlined for potential pivot points moving forward.
1st is the green arrow pointing at the falling wedge at the $9k areas support line. I see a path where a bounce anywhere from our present position to a drop to $9k could result in a move up to retest the $9.8k resistance. As I see as a potential to break to $10.2k from there but wouldn't .....
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In conclusion, it's pretty difficult to tell precisely where BTC is headed from here. It could easily break up parabolically to the $20k area or continue a slower and drug out move through the summer while regulation concerns are addressed. Both are reasonable. I hope this guide and ideas help you understand some key areas of interest if you're some of those who missed the dip from the doom and gloom TA running amuck. I hope anyone seriously interested in attempting to actively engage in the market takes this opportunity to see how VERY important it is to educate yourself to the very highs standards possible to take control of your future and financial freedom while supporting some of the best ideas in tech since the internet! Never forget how important Fundamental Analysis is combined with TA charting. This means educating yourself on all markets and tech of meaning. It's ridiculously obvious how rampant the inexperienced in this market really is. There's soo much more to this than some pretty lines and a calculator on a chart. Big money is on it's way guys so it's time to start thinking like big money or just leave it on a cold storage wallet and forget about it for a year or two. Seriously.
I'd like to add, I'm not even remotely saying I'm a pro, I'm just saying I know I don't know nearly enough to call myself a pro and most TAs here know even less.
I'd like to add, I'm not even remotely saying I'm a pro, I'm just saying I know I don't know nearly enough to call myself a pro and most TAs here know even less.
Trade active:
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I'd like to note we're still behaving is a manor more in line with moving within the gray wedge than a short term bearish move. $9,800 is going to be really important as out next target break out. Remember everyone, Equities markets are getting rolled right now so there's a real potential to see our dismal market cap comparatively see a boost more than enough to make some moves some of us still cant fathom.
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one last note, the light blue wedge is still in play albeit slightly off on the targeted time frame.
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Blue wedge is a pinch off but targets are not for the blue wedge and Highly suspect the gray as well.
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This is still my official position
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Let's see if we can hold above the caution zone now!
I do however see another rout where we bounce off $9.8k and fall to $8.5k area and continue up. This event could easilly trigger a bullish move to play with $12 k again. In our experience, the 3rd retest is a potential area of interest to actually break out of the ascending wedge we've been forming but a lot of conditions need to be met to consider this at this time.
I see a more bearish short term direction within the bullish larger picture. This is a fall to the lowest green arrow at the $7,500 support area and crossing of the bear market symetrical triangle trend line and another long term historical trend line in white. This green arrow or sideways and down the the 3rd green arrow would indicate to us the potential of the general wave sub wave 1 swing low and quite bullish outlook from there before a retest of the pink trend line in a correction later this year.
The most bearish reasonable outlook I have at this time is a retest of the pink trend line before July and a slow move up from there. As noted above, the yellow caution wedge is still a reasonable bullish testing zone to shake out the last of the weak hands. An entry into this zone as low as the sub $5.8k strong support zone would be quite reasonable and still bullish to me long term however would require attention being alert until strong buying pressure is observed. I'll remain invested with my initial USD position throughout this zone as the taxes I'm subject to would far outweigh the cost of patience and cost dollar averaging the dip with bullish indicator readings at that time.
If EVER we dip into the red Emergency sick zone for anything more a single 1 day candle or wick and seeing the violent buy pressure like that seen at $6k, and anything even remotely resembling a tank to the doom and gloom boogie bear TA running amuck around TV in the face of bullish indications plastering the charts, I'll be 100% out of this toxic asset, most likely indefensibly if not for years of trending bullish momentum at minimum as this signals to anyone who knows what they're looking at how TERRIBLE an investment it is when so many alts would break away from BTC with ease as Fiat and other crypto pairs proliferate throughout the market. If BTC can't remain buoyant with such a small market cap in the grand scheme of things, I'd never consider it a reasonable asset again and manipulated down to the extent it's nothing more to me than a great idea destroyed and manipulated into a giant scam by the top 10% of wallets holding 90% of all BTC. This is also assuming there's anyone left willing to support it after miners flee to healthier assets. Just saying guys. Manipulation of the market to the up is far more in the interest of whales and miners on simple fundamentals than being the only ones left holding it and a destroyed infrastructure.