Next volatility period : around May 19 (May 18-20)
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(USDT 1D chart)
(USDC 1D chart)
USDT and USDC are showing sideways movements.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
It is still sideways around 53.44-55.01.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
For the coin market to continue its overall upward trend, USDT dominance must remain below 4.97 or maintain a downward trend.
Otherwise, the coin market as a whole is likely to show a downward trend as it rises around the Fibonacci ratio point of 0.618.
therefore,
- Are USDT or USDC showing a gap upward trend?
- Will BTC dominance remain below 55.01 or show a downward trend?
- Is USDT dominance maintained below 4.97 or showing a downward trend?
You need to check if the above conditions are met.
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If it receives support near the second section, I think there is a high possibility of a large upward trend.
However, since the buying section of this uptrend appears to have taken place over the 16362.29-28923.63 section, I think there is a possibility that it will fall to around 0.382-0.5, that is, around 46K-51K, as indicated by the Gann Box tool.
Even in that sense, you can see how important the second section (56K-61K) is.
(1W chart)
Because we used a Volume Candles chart, the candles are spaced irregularly.
The Volume Candles chart is a chart that combines trading volume with candles, allowing you to intuitively know that the thicker the candle, the more trading volume has occurred.
Therefore, when looking at the current candle, I think it is difficult to say that enough trading volume has occurred to change the trend.
The period of volatility on the 1W chart is expected to span the week before and after April 29th through the week before and after July 29th.
At this time, the most important thing is whether the upward trend can be continued along the important upward channel.
(1D chart)
The key is whether it can find support near 61K and rise along the important uptrend line.
The next period of volatility is expected around May 19 (May 18-20), so the question will ultimately be whether the price can be maintained above 61K.
The HA-Low indicator is formed at the 62791.03 point, and the box section of the HA-Low indicator is currently formed over the 65500.0-58811.32 range.
Therefore, a trend is expected to form when the price breaks out of the box area and remains there.
In order for a full-fledged uptrend to begin on the 1D chart, the price must be maintained above the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, the current HA-High indicator point is formed at 70231.38, so based on current standards, the price must rise above 70231.38 to maintain the price.
Therefore, the final time to buy is when support appears near the HA-High indicator.
However, if it rises near the HA-High indicator, you may feel pressured to buy due to psychological fear of decline.
Therefore, it is necessary to proceed with aggressive buying when support is shown near the HA-Low indicator.
Aggressive buying refers to a proportion that is large enough to not cause significant psychological burden even if the price plummets.
However, if it falls below the HA-Low indicator and shows resistance, there is a possibility that the previous low point will be renewed, so you should think about a response plan.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point has been formed.
A low point does not mean it is a bottom.
In order to form a bottom section, you can tell that a bottom section has been formed when you confirm support at the low point section.
Therefore, the bottom section will only be known after some time has passed.
Therefore, if there is a decline in the HA-Low indicator, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline.
The buying strategy around the HA-Low indicator is how to purchase whenever there is a cascading decline and how to leave coins (tokens) held for profit.
If you buy and hold in this way, you will not feel much pressure to buy when it eventually shows support near the HA-High indicator.
When purchasing near the HA-Low indicator, the important thing is to see whether the price is maintained above the HA-Low indicator and the MS-Signal indicator.
This will allow you to reduce the number of day trading or short-term trades you do.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
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Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(USDT 1D chart)
(USDC 1D chart)
USDT and USDC are showing sideways movements.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
(USDT.D 1M chart)
Otherwise, the coin market as a whole is likely to show a downward trend as it rises around the Fibonacci ratio point of 0.618.
therefore,
- Are USDT or USDC showing a gap upward trend?
- Will BTC dominance remain below 55.01 or show a downward trend?
- Is USDT dominance maintained below 4.97 or showing a downward trend?
You need to check if the above conditions are met.
-------------------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
However, since the buying section of this uptrend appears to have taken place over the 16362.29-28923.63 section, I think there is a possibility that it will fall to around 0.382-0.5, that is, around 46K-51K, as indicated by the Gann Box tool.
Even in that sense, you can see how important the second section (56K-61K) is.
(1W chart)
The Volume Candles chart is a chart that combines trading volume with candles, allowing you to intuitively know that the thicker the candle, the more trading volume has occurred.
Therefore, when looking at the current candle, I think it is difficult to say that enough trading volume has occurred to change the trend.
The period of volatility on the 1W chart is expected to span the week before and after April 29th through the week before and after July 29th.
At this time, the most important thing is whether the upward trend can be continued along the important upward channel.
(1D chart)
The next period of volatility is expected around May 19 (May 18-20), so the question will ultimately be whether the price can be maintained above 61K.
The HA-Low indicator is formed at the 62791.03 point, and the box section of the HA-Low indicator is currently formed over the 65500.0-58811.32 range.
Therefore, a trend is expected to form when the price breaks out of the box area and remains there.
In order for a full-fledged uptrend to begin on the 1D chart, the price must be maintained above the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, the current HA-High indicator point is formed at 70231.38, so based on current standards, the price must rise above 70231.38 to maintain the price.
Therefore, the final time to buy is when support appears near the HA-High indicator.
However, if it rises near the HA-High indicator, you may feel pressured to buy due to psychological fear of decline.
Therefore, it is necessary to proceed with aggressive buying when support is shown near the HA-Low indicator.
Aggressive buying refers to a proportion that is large enough to not cause significant psychological burden even if the price plummets.
However, if it falls below the HA-Low indicator and shows resistance, there is a possibility that the previous low point will be renewed, so you should think about a response plan.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point has been formed.
A low point does not mean it is a bottom.
In order to form a bottom section, you can tell that a bottom section has been formed when you confirm support at the low point section.
Therefore, the bottom section will only be known after some time has passed.
Therefore, if there is a decline in the HA-Low indicator, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline.
The buying strategy around the HA-Low indicator is how to purchase whenever there is a cascading decline and how to leave coins (tokens) held for profit.
If you buy and hold in this way, you will not feel much pressure to buy when it eventually shows support near the HA-High indicator.
When purchasing near the HA-Low indicator, the important thing is to see whether the price is maintained above the HA-Low indicator and the MS-Signal indicator.
This will allow you to reduce the number of day trading or short-term trades you do.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Comment:
USDC continues its gap decline.
Accordingly, there is a possibility of short-term impacts.
I believe that the gap drop is the basis for the outflow of funds from the coin market.
Therefore, there is a possibility of a short-term downtrend.
However, since I believe that USDT has a significant impact on the coin market, I think it is highly likely that the coin market will continue its upward trend until USDT shows a gap decline.
Therefore, although the overall trend of the current coin market is in an upward trend, it should be interpreted that there is a possibility of a downward trend in the short term.
Since a volume profile section has been formed around 32.435B on the USDC chart, we need to check whether it is maintained above this level.
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
As time goes by, a new upward trend line is created, which appears to have formed a short-term upward channel.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether the price can be maintained above the downward trend line (2) by rising along the short-term rising channel.
After that, we need to see if it can receive support around 62791.03 and rise above 65233.64.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise above the resistance range of 65233.64-66401.82.
If it falls below 61K after around May 19, there is a possibility that it may fall to around 56K, so you should also think about countermeasures against this.
Since there is a shake-up to convert from a short-term downtrend to an uptrend, I think it is necessary to check whether it is supported near the HA-Low indicator and whether the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator and decide when to proceed with an aggressive purchase.
Currently, the MS-Signal indicator is passing around the HA-Low indicator point of 62791.03, so support around 62791.03 can be said to be an important key.
Accordingly, there is a possibility of short-term impacts.
I believe that the gap drop is the basis for the outflow of funds from the coin market.
Therefore, there is a possibility of a short-term downtrend.
However, since I believe that USDT has a significant impact on the coin market, I think it is highly likely that the coin market will continue its upward trend until USDT shows a gap decline.
Therefore, although the overall trend of the current coin market is in an upward trend, it should be interpreted that there is a possibility of a downward trend in the short term.
Since a volume profile section has been formed around 32.435B on the USDC chart, we need to check whether it is maintained above this level.
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether the price can be maintained above the downward trend line (2) by rising along the short-term rising channel.
After that, we need to see if it can receive support around 62791.03 and rise above 65233.64.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise above the resistance range of 65233.64-66401.82.
If it falls below 61K after around May 19, there is a possibility that it may fall to around 56K, so you should also think about countermeasures against this.
Since there is a shake-up to convert from a short-term downtrend to an uptrend, I think it is necessary to check whether it is supported near the HA-Low indicator and whether the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator and decide when to proceed with an aggressive purchase.
Currently, the MS-Signal indicator is passing around the HA-Low indicator point of 62791.03, so support around 62791.03 can be said to be an important key.
Comment:
USDC is showing a downward trend, but USDT is showing an upward gap.
I think the fund that has a big impact on the coin market is USDT.
Therefore, no matter how much USDC shows a downward trend in gap, if USDT shows an upward trend in gap, I think there is a high possibility that the coin market will show an upward trend.
Therefore, I think that when USDT shows sideways movements, it is likely to make short-term movements influenced by USDC's movements.
For the coin market to show an overall upward trend, BTC dominance must remain below 55.01 or decline while USDT must remain below 4.97 or show a decline.
Since BTC dominance is currently above 55.01, I think it is highly likely that altcoins will gradually move sideways or even decline.
The reason is that rising BTC dominance means that funds are being concentrated towards BTC.
I think the coin market is still a market that moves by following trends.
Therefore, I think it is necessary to pay attention to the flow of funds that has a significant impact on the coin market.
This is because the flow of funds can control the flow of the coin market.
For BTC, please refer to the previous updates.
Point 65233.64 is the HA-High indicator point on the 1W chart, and point 66401.82 is the box-top point of the HA-High indicator on the previous 1W chart.
thus,
1st: 65233.64-66401.82
2nd: 69K-70231.38
The area around the 1st and 2nd levels above can be a resistance area.
Support and rising near the HA-High indicator means that there is a high possibility of renewing the previous high point, meaning that an uptrend is likely to begin.
Therefore, if it is supported and rises near the HA-High indicator (65233.64) on the 1W chart, it means that there is a possibility of continuing the upward trend from a mid- to long-term perspective.
Currently, the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart is formed at the 70231.38 point, so from a short-term perspective, it should be interpreted that the upward trend is likely to begin only when the price rises above 70231.38 and is maintained.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point has been formed.
However, it cannot be said that this section is the bottom section.
This is because when you can say it's a bottom section, it's only after you've already risen a lot.
Therefore, you can proceed with split purchases from when the HA-Low indicator is created.
If it fails to receive support from the HA-Low indicator and falls, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline, so you need to carefully adjust your weight so that you can buy whenever it shows support near the HA-Low indicator.
I think that long sideways movements near the HA-Low indicator will most likely form a bottom section.
To reiterate the timing of trading based on the explanation of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators above,
1. The time to buy is when it shows support around the HA-Low indicator.
2. The time to sell is when the price rises to around the HA-High indicator.
However, if the price rises above the HA-High indicator and is maintained, there is a high possibility that an upward trend will begin, so it is the first split selling period.
When the HA-Low indicator is first created, if it falls without support, it is likely to show a cascading decline, so it is the first installment purchase period.
When the price rises above the HA-High indicator and appears to be maintaining the price, those who bought near the HA-Low indicator can maximize profits by purchasing additional.
If you are unable to purchase at the HA-Low indicator, you can purchase when support appears between the HA-High indicator and the upper point of the box of the HA-High indicator.
At this time, the stop loss point is the bottom point of the box of the HA-High indicator.
Important trend lines correspond to upward trend lines that are important from a medium to long-term perspective.
Therefore, the most important thing about the current price position is whether the price can be maintained above the important trend line.
I think the fund that has a big impact on the coin market is USDT.
Therefore, no matter how much USDC shows a downward trend in gap, if USDT shows an upward trend in gap, I think there is a high possibility that the coin market will show an upward trend.
Therefore, I think that when USDT shows sideways movements, it is likely to make short-term movements influenced by USDC's movements.
Since BTC dominance is currently above 55.01, I think it is highly likely that altcoins will gradually move sideways or even decline.
The reason is that rising BTC dominance means that funds are being concentrated towards BTC.
I think the coin market is still a market that moves by following trends.
Therefore, I think it is necessary to pay attention to the flow of funds that has a significant impact on the coin market.
This is because the flow of funds can control the flow of the coin market.
Point 65233.64 is the HA-High indicator point on the 1W chart, and point 66401.82 is the box-top point of the HA-High indicator on the previous 1W chart.
thus,
1st: 65233.64-66401.82
2nd: 69K-70231.38
The area around the 1st and 2nd levels above can be a resistance area.
Support and rising near the HA-High indicator means that there is a high possibility of renewing the previous high point, meaning that an uptrend is likely to begin.
Therefore, if it is supported and rises near the HA-High indicator (65233.64) on the 1W chart, it means that there is a possibility of continuing the upward trend from a mid- to long-term perspective.
Currently, the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart is formed at the 70231.38 point, so from a short-term perspective, it should be interpreted that the upward trend is likely to begin only when the price rises above 70231.38 and is maintained.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point has been formed.
However, it cannot be said that this section is the bottom section.
This is because when you can say it's a bottom section, it's only after you've already risen a lot.
Therefore, you can proceed with split purchases from when the HA-Low indicator is created.
If it fails to receive support from the HA-Low indicator and falls, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline, so you need to carefully adjust your weight so that you can buy whenever it shows support near the HA-Low indicator.
I think that long sideways movements near the HA-Low indicator will most likely form a bottom section.
To reiterate the timing of trading based on the explanation of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators above,
1. The time to buy is when it shows support around the HA-Low indicator.
2. The time to sell is when the price rises to around the HA-High indicator.
However, if the price rises above the HA-High indicator and is maintained, there is a high possibility that an upward trend will begin, so it is the first split selling period.
When the HA-Low indicator is first created, if it falls without support, it is likely to show a cascading decline, so it is the first installment purchase period.
When the price rises above the HA-High indicator and appears to be maintaining the price, those who bought near the HA-Low indicator can maximize profits by purchasing additional.
If you are unable to purchase at the HA-Low indicator, you can purchase when support appears between the HA-High indicator and the upper point of the box of the HA-High indicator.
At this time, the stop loss point is the bottom point of the box of the HA-High indicator.
Important trend lines correspond to upward trend lines that are important from a medium to long-term perspective.
Therefore, the most important thing about the current price position is whether the price can be maintained above the important trend line.
Comment:
I think the ADAUSDT 1W chart is the chart that best shows the trend transition of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
(ADAUSDT 1W chart)
The HA-Low indicator was created for the first time in the week ending March 21, 2022.
After that, there was a gradual decline.
Additionally, the HA-High indicator was created for the first time in the week ending January 1, 2024.
Accordingly, the HA-Low indicator appears to be moving sideways and forming a bottom section.
With the creation of the HA-High indicator, it appears that a shake-up to shift to an upward trend has begun.
If the price rises above the HA-High indicator and is maintained, a full-fledged cascading upward trend is expected to begin.
Currently, the HA-High indicator is formed at 0.62.
(ADAUSDT 1W chart)
After that, there was a gradual decline.
Additionally, the HA-High indicator was created for the first time in the week ending January 1, 2024.
Accordingly, the HA-Low indicator appears to be moving sideways and forming a bottom section.
If the price rises above the HA-High indicator and is maintained, a full-fledged cascading upward trend is expected to begin.
Currently, the HA-High indicator is formed at 0.62.
Comment:
After USDT's gap rise yesterday, USDC is showing a gap rise today.
[Example of exchange chart setup]
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
This is because only then can mining be maintained.
It is best not to think that this news will change the market.
Therefore, since there is a high level of fatigue with holding and rising coins, it is better to think that they are naturally trending downward.