A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMA[UPDATE]
Quick update on this 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMAs we have been following in this in this space. The weekly still has 5 days until we close, but we have definitively broken now the 600D SMA on the Daily and now breaking down as per prior cycles to areas discussed in my previous post. History shows us in prior cycle breaking down from the 600D SMA can be brutal for BTC.
From a TA prospective, we are breaking down from a Rising Wedge (RW) continuation pattern in a bear flag formation with measured moves down towards the 30K demand zone shown in Green (see prior post for detailed discussion). This area aligns with the golden pocket fib levels from the COVID lows to our current ATHs, will sweep our winter 21 lows from June / July (which will be seen as a spring if we bounce to Wyckoff Traders), aligns with a parabolic trend line (green line) formed from the COVID bottom and the Sep 20 base which launched our end of 2020 move, is the bottom of the 60k / 30k trading range which has been 2021, and has show a strong area where the bulls has historically jumped back into the market to defend price (as shown by the green demand zone box).
I do expect at a minimum bulls to entre the market at this area and show a fight at these levels as there is a lot of structural support, TA reasoning traders / investors will be looking at these price levels. Bulls have the opportunity here to flush the market by sweeping the winter May / June / July 2021 lows and putting in a spring which could continue our bull run, validate lengthening cycles and we see a new all time high (ATH) put in for BTC. The current situation with money on the side is prime for FOMO price behavior for the end of this year if the economic conditions play favorable for markets.
However from this historic review of BTC, this would be against the grain as to what BTC has done following similar price action with the 200D SMA and 600D SMA in the past. If we do not hold the 30K demand zone then the 200W SMA will be hanging around for a new cycle bottom around the 22K areas by the time of a possible intersection (would also play out the larger bear flag measured move in the current setup).
With the Macro environment, tail winds for the 30K scenario bounce we want to see the FED stumble on their rate high cycle predictions (i.e. announce reduction in increases or increase time window which will be viewed as bullish by markets), watch the S&P500 and US stocks (BTC is heavily corelated with the direction of traditional markets over the current periods), watch the $USD (strong dollar is bearish to BTC and traditionally markets and the rising USD has been a strong tail wind hindering btc this cycle bull run through 2022 so far - we want to see a reversal in USD strength to support a 30K bounce). Any positions made in this area as with all should practice risk management.
A final warning to Alt Coin holder; the risk will defiantly be on alt bag holders if BTC and markets continue to fall over this period as Alts in general will likely fall at a greater rate than BTC if the bearish outlooks for BTC fully play out.
From a TA prospective, we are breaking down from a Rising Wedge (RW) continuation pattern in a bear flag formation with measured moves down towards the 30K demand zone shown in Green (see prior post for detailed discussion). This area aligns with the golden pocket fib levels from the COVID lows to our current ATHs, will sweep our winter 21 lows from June / July (which will be seen as a spring if we bounce to Wyckoff Traders), aligns with a parabolic trend line (green line) formed from the COVID bottom and the Sep 20 base which launched our end of 2020 move, is the bottom of the 60k / 30k trading range which has been 2021, and has show a strong area where the bulls has historically jumped back into the market to defend price (as shown by the green demand zone box).
I do expect at a minimum bulls to entre the market at this area and show a fight at these levels as there is a lot of structural support, TA reasoning traders / investors will be looking at these price levels. Bulls have the opportunity here to flush the market by sweeping the winter May / June / July 2021 lows and putting in a spring which could continue our bull run, validate lengthening cycles and we see a new all time high (ATH) put in for BTC. The current situation with money on the side is prime for FOMO price behavior for the end of this year if the economic conditions play favorable for markets.
However from this historic review of BTC, this would be against the grain as to what BTC has done following similar price action with the 200D SMA and 600D SMA in the past. If we do not hold the 30K demand zone then the 200W SMA will be hanging around for a new cycle bottom around the 22K areas by the time of a possible intersection (would also play out the larger bear flag measured move in the current setup).
With the Macro environment, tail winds for the 30K scenario bounce we want to see the FED stumble on their rate high cycle predictions (i.e. announce reduction in increases or increase time window which will be viewed as bullish by markets), watch the S&P500 and US stocks (BTC is heavily corelated with the direction of traditional markets over the current periods), watch the $USD (strong dollar is bearish to BTC and traditionally markets and the rising USD has been a strong tail wind hindering btc this cycle bull run through 2022 so far - we want to see a reversal in USD strength to support a 30K bounce). Any positions made in this area as with all should practice risk management.
A final warning to Alt Coin holder; the risk will defiantly be on alt bag holders if BTC and markets continue to fall over this period as Alts in general will likely fall at a greater rate than BTC if the bearish outlooks for BTC fully play out.
