the btc bear case.

i typed this up last night, and almost posted it, but i got side tracked with life and didn't get around to it.

i've included a few links down below of the few posts which led me to writing this theory; do check them out if you're interested.
also included my entire count from last march at the bottom of this wall of text.

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a wise man once said, in these markets there are bears, there are bulls, and then there are wolves.

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this is a very bold prediction on my end, but it intuitively feels right as of this moment.

let me explain my reasoning behind this giant bearish triangle.

last year we formed a very solid bull channel:

the drop from 64k came down in 5 waves (no correction moves in 5 waves \ any elliotician will explain this to you in detail). impulses move in 5 waves, wave A's, wave C's, Wave 1,3,5's move in 5 waves.

corrections generally come in 3 phases(A-B-C), and complex corrections can be even more complicated to decipher. (but at the end of the day, complex or not, they come in 3 phases, not 5).

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as per the law of alternation states, if wave 2 was a simple zig-zag (which it was for the covid drop), then wave 4 has to be a complex correction. which is precisely what I'm pointing out here in this post.

these last few days btc's dips have gotten smaller and smaller, and the volume has decreased as well, strong divergence pursues on the larger frames, and there's a sell signal on every single timeframe as me typing this(yesterday).

initially i thought 54.5k would have been the peak of this move, but btc decided to throw a curved ball at us lol.

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i'm pulling a fib from the local high down to that low in june and looking for the 0.618~0.65 algo targets (golden zone)

it lines up perfectly with the mid-line of the bull channel which was formed last year.

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here's where the bearish triangle comes into play.

the mid line of the bull channel + the golden zone are extremely powerful areas, and the largest areas of liquidity for big buyers to come back into the market after such a huge dip.

btc simply won't be able to break through that area in one shot, so it's going to take several attempts - and that's where the complex abcde pattern comes into play.

the triangle gives the bears 3 attempts to break through the midline of the bull channel - if they succeed, btc drops to 22k to complete this wave 4 correction after a massive squeeze \ battle of the algos within the triangle.

if the bears fail to get through, then our correction sees a truncation at some point, and we see the same sort of squeeze happen to the upside instead.

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ps. this is all just a theory, not financial advice, do your own dd, and research, and always make sure you have a plan with any kind of trade you take.

best of luck!

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here's my count from last march

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view bull case down below:

Comment:

watch 40.5k as the bottom of this wave a

possible it sees a truncation before making it down there, this is always possible. if i see any nice buy signals come in before the target is hit, i'll post the update here immediately ~

Comment:

just shorted btc here,

Comment:

out of my short for now;

i really don't like the setup here, despite the possibility of another drop.

i'll buy the dip if it happens, otherwise, i'm sidelined for now.

i've got a couple more ideas in the works of a few alternatives.