Rising Wedge on BTC price

BTC seems to be forming a rising wedge since the 7th of June. The price moves between the bottom trendline that started with the last "crash" to the $31k price, and the upper trendline starting from $36.8K. We have 5 touches so far, and the pattern keeps confirming with every touch.

The pattern has an about 60% chance to break downwards with a final target at the bottom of the wedge at around $31K. That said, volume and RSI indicators are not exactly perfect for the pattern but those are not must requirements for a wedge anyways. The hourly RSI does show a slowdown at the bottom trendline though, and something similar should be expected at the next peak of the top trendline as well.

We have a few major support and resistance levels that can possibly play a role here. The fib level at $37.3k as well as the top trendline from the descending triangle that we broke out from at the beginning of the week, could act as "safety net" in case we do break downwards, to either temporarily support the price for a while, or make it bounce to the upwards and back into the wedge. If the price goes right through these levels with ease, expect a very quick crash to the $31k or perhaps lower.

Similarly, we are having the Jan/21 ATH line at $41.8k, a major resistance level, where a bounce at and right below should be expected. In case we do break through it, the bulls will have to fight hard to cross the $43.8k fib.

Looking at more long term patterns, if this rising wedge does break down before the JAN/21 ATH and then bounces back at the $31K fib once again, it's a further confirmation of the $31K ~ $41K consolidation area, till of course there is break out from it.

Comment:

Of course all the above can be treated depending on their risk/reward ratio.
For example a long from the bottom trendline with a stop loss right below it and a take profit at the top trendline or a resistance level somewhere in the middle. The reverse can be shorted as well.
Or a short on the break down, when and if that comes, with a stop loss right above the bottom trendline, and a take profit at the levels described above, or even at the $31k for the courageous.