Let's start with the obvious. I've outlined the bull flag in orange. I wouldn't be surprised if this broke out a little higher until it hits strong resistance from the Fib and 50MA. The white one is trend based, the red is retracement to estimate a bottom should it drop below 6k. Key word: estimate. Not probably, likely, guaranteed, unlikely, impossible or precisely.
I've circled the area that it would likely trade within if it moves higher and is stopped by resistance. That would create an ascending wedge that is a bearish reversal indicator.
RSI is currently at 56 and hasn't moved above 62 since 1/6/18. On a positive note it didn't break below 30 earlier this month which I interpret as a positive sign that the bears are losing momentum.
If one is feeling positive about the bulls taking over the bullish reentry zone looks to be a high probability to reload.
A few X factors. The latest surge is highly suspect, particularly when looking at the shorts that were slaughtered as a result. Moreover, I'm extra cautious when alts surge across the board. It's textbook FOMO to drive prices higher before BTC drops. When it does anyone who sells takes a double loss. A loss on the BTC/alt pairing value and in the cash value of BTC. 20%, 40%, 50% ROIs in a few days are very likely to have pullbacks naturally. If BTC drops below the bullish re-entry zone it would be likely for all those alt gains to be wiped out from the selloff that would ensue. Lastly, volume is much lower compared to other bull flags and without strong volume it's not going to continue the pattern.
I've circled the area that it would likely trade within if it moves higher and is stopped by resistance. That would create an ascending wedge that is a bearish reversal indicator.
RSI is currently at 56 and hasn't moved above 62 since 1/6/18. On a positive note it didn't break below 30 earlier this month which I interpret as a positive sign that the bears are losing momentum.
If one is feeling positive about the bulls taking over the bullish reentry zone looks to be a high probability to reload.
A few X factors. The latest surge is highly suspect, particularly when looking at the shorts that were slaughtered as a result. Moreover, I'm extra cautious when alts surge across the board. It's textbook FOMO to drive prices higher before BTC drops. When it does anyone who sells takes a double loss. A loss on the BTC/alt pairing value and in the cash value of BTC. 20%, 40%, 50% ROIs in a few days are very likely to have pullbacks naturally. If BTC drops below the bullish re-entry zone it would be likely for all those alt gains to be wiped out from the selloff that would ensue. Lastly, volume is much lower compared to other bull flags and without strong volume it's not going to continue the pattern.
Trade active:
This latest bump set up an ascending wedge perfectly on the 4 hour as expected.