First things first. We beat that 4hr 50 MA. I saw us get rejected from that same 50 MA over the weekend and as a result I felt like we may head south. We did head south briefly kissing 8850 approximately over night before recovering to above the 4hr 50 MA (9100). The thing I have been noticing is the buying pressure below 9k. The last few months have shown a lot of traders buying below 9k. Every time we dip below that 9k area we shoot back up. I dont think this support will last forever though but for now enjoy it.
We are sitting on top of some much needed support for a change at the moment. The 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr bottom border of the cloud are both below us. Being within the confines of the cloud can be good and bad. It causes consolidation when you are inside the cloud as the top and bottom border act as trapping the candles within the prison we call the cloud. Sometimes that prison works better than other times but that is what you should expect from the cloud.
We closed the weekly last night above the weekly cloud still. We have been slowly walking down the weekly cloud like stairs and if that trend continues we can expect to see lows of 8600 - 8800. The .236 (8800) should still hold I would imagine. The weeks start so far looks decent as we have a green candle on the current candle. But we still have the entire week ahead of us. Prepare for anything. Sentiment is pretty . I mean we did take some much needed support back on the 4hr time frame but on the daily we still have that pesky daily 50 MA above our heads daring us to try and break through.
If you cant tell Im still ultimately . I just need one decent green candle to turn that around. We can clearly see that every time we dip below 9k buying pressure pushes us back up. I dont think that will last forever. I do think that if we keep testing 9k it will eventually break and we will see a dip. But that is what a stop loss is made for right? The bulls have put on a good show and the bears have pretty much been sidelined since March when all the markets dipped. We can say BTC has made an incredible recovery since the dump and with the halving clearly at our backs I would be ready for anything on the charts. But then again WTFDIK right?
TLDR: The bulls are being stubborn and the bears are still weak from their hibernation... But I dont think this will last forever.