$BTC - Bitcoin Jan 2023 Analysis

BTCUSDT.P

Greetings, and Happy New Year to all my fellow Berserkers!

Yearly, Monthly, Weekly closes have all just happened. Which will allow us to dive deep into candle analysis as well as EW counts. Lets start with the main count on Bitcoin. (1W log Chart)

I've identified a general target zone for the year. The box was drawn based on previous S/R, but when I drew the fib lines, as we can see it also aligns with .333-.382 Fibonacci retracement lines. Which means we have a huge amount of confluence there. 25-26k also seems like a key level to reclaim in order to attain that target. This price constitutes our previous peak after the first descent under 20k.

• MTF The final piece of info I want to delve into on this chart is the MTF indicator (just below the RSI). There seems to be a weekly fakeup printing there (Gray line moving upwards, alone). But we can also see the blue line curving slightly upwards. So the next week could be very determining in the direction we'll see in January of 2023.
  
  
• Elliot Wave Theory The corrective count is still a bit up in the air. This could very well be a combo (WXY or WXYXZ). The only thing we're pretty sure on is that this is not a Flat for the moment! I've labelled it ABC for simplicity and for the fact that it is the most probably count. My doubts only stem from the difficulty of finding valid downward impulses with diverging 5th waves.
  
  
• Falling wedge/Ending 5th while I typically don't do this, I've drawn the diagonal line from the bottom of wave 3. I'd like to see another touch to the bottom of the wedge support in order to give us a significant boost in PA on the bullish side thereafter.
  

Comment:

This could very well be a combo (WXY or WXYXZ):

I want to address this statement. This is likely an invalid analysis since one of the guidelines is for the wave ratios within the combo be at least .618. This is not the case.

Comment:

Looking pretty good to hit the box this year.